Serie A Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview May 11-12
WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 11-12 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Napoli vs Bologna and Lazio vs Empoli. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!
Napoli vs Bologna | Saturday May 11 | 12:00pm ET
Napoli +100 | Draw +245 | Bologna +235
Asian Handicap: Napoli -0.5 | Total: 2.5
We nailed a couple draws last week and I see this as another match that has a good chance of ending that way.
Draws are fine results for Bologna right now and we have seen them take that understanding into some of their recent matches, taking a very cautious approach, not necessarily going out and trying to win by pushing the issue, but instead focusing on defense, staying compact and really limiting their opponents’ chances.
That has resulted in four draws in their last five matches, three of them ending 0-0, while conceding only two goals over their last seven matches.
Only one team created more than 1.0 xG during that run. Going back a little further, they have conceded just five goals over their last 13. Their defense is tough to crack, and Napoli has proven they can’t beat good defensive teams this season including the reverse fixture between these sides that also ended 0-0.
Looking at the table, Bologna would be happy to get a point from this match which will keep them in the Top-5 for a Champions League qualification spot.
Though Napoli do need to win to keep pace down at the low-end of European qualification as they currently sit 8th in the Europa Conference League qualification spot.
But as I’ve said on numerous occasions this season, Napoli has simply proven they cannot beat the top-half of the table. In fact, they have just two wins against teams ranked 10th or better this season, which is remarkably bad for a club like Napoli.
However, they seem to do just enough not to lose either with seven draws in their last 12 matches including several against top-half sides.
While Napoli will push for the win, I don’t see Bologna breaking as they have been able to shut down everyone lately including Inter back in March, allowing just one goal. Bologna will likely make this a boring game.
Serie A Prediction: Draw (+245)
Lazio vs Empoli | Sunday May 12 | 6:30am ET
Lazio -185 | Draw +285 | Empoli +450
Asian Handicap: Lazio -1.0 | Total: 2.5
Big match for both Clubs as Empoli continue their fight against relegation, currently safe, but only two points clear of Udinese. Lazio hold a Europa League qualification and still have a chance to jump into a Champions League spot, but it certainly requires a win.
Lazio conceded two goals at Monza last weekend and settled for a draw, but Monza is a pesky side to beat. Prior to that they had won three straight matches against Verona, Genoa and Salernitana, conceding just one goal. In fact, over their last six matches prior to Monza, Lazio conceded only three goals.
At home, Lazio has been incredibly difficult to score against. They had one bad stretch this season, three straight games in February and March in which they conceded two to Bologna, one to Milan and two to Udinese.
Aside from that, they conceded a total of just nine goals in 19 matches including Champions League, conceding one goal or less in 17 of those matches. Because of that, only three of their 22 home matches finished Over 3.5 goals.
I’m not fully confident in laying -1.25 on Lazio though for the chance they win 1-0 which is a scoreline they seem to like at home, winning by that score eight times. Or for the chance Empoli does sneak one, a 2-1 result then seems likely in that scenario.
Empoli away from home has been awful this season. Aside from back-to-back away matches in which they scored three goals against Salernitana and Sassuolo, Empoli scored a total of only seven goals in 15 away matches with only one other occurrence in which they netted more than one. They have been held scoreless in four straight away matches since those repeat three-goal performances.
To Empoli’s credit though, they do a good job of limiting their opponents. Aside from that ridiculous result against Roma in which they allowed seven goals, followed by three goals at Bologna, Empoli hasn’t conceded more than two goals on the road in their last 14 matches which includes at Napoli (0), Juventus (1), Milan (1), Inter (2) and Atalanta (2).
Empoli will certainly look to park the bus and Lazio is unlikely to push the issue, rather be patient and wait for their chance, while making sure they don’t allow any good chances to Empoli.
Serie A Prediction: Lazio + Under 3.5 (+120)
Verona vs Torino | Sunday May 12 | 9:00am ET
Verona +185 | Draw +195 | Torino +155
Asian Handicap: Pick’em (+0) | Total: 2.0
Low total for good reason as Torino loves the art of the 0-0 draw which they have nine of this season. They are a team that struggles to put the ball in the net as they are now scoreless over their last four matches, yet because of a stingy defense, they have just one loss in those four games.
Torino ranks 4th in Serie A in total goals allowed, only 31 through 34 matches, and rank 3rd in xGA, allowing less than 1.0 xGA per match, behind only Inter and Juventus.
They still have an outside shot at a European qualification for next season and they likely need to win this match to keep those hopes alive. Problem is they have only four away victories this season as they have been held scoreless in seven of 17 matches.
Verona earned a huge victory last weekend beating Fiorentina 2-1 at home to move themselves four points clear of the relegation line with three teams in between them and Udinese who currently own the final relegation spot.
It’s a crowded bottom of the table which is a good thing for Verona as even a draw would be a great result with only two matches remaining after this weekend.
Verona has done a decent job of limiting their opponents as they have allowed more than two goals in just five instances this season. Yet despite having respectable defensive numbers, it’s their lowly offense that has prevented them from winning matches as they have scored more than two goals just one time this entire season.
With both teams likely to dig in their heels here and try to win this match, or at least draw it with their defense, I would be highly surprised to see many quality chances either way as both teams likely finish with less than 1.0 xG created.
Serie A Prediction: Under 2.0 (-110)
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