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Serie A Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview April 26-28

Serie A Picks April 26-28

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his April 26-28 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Frosinone vs Salernitana and Lazio vs Verona. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Frosinone vs Salernitana | Friday April 26 | 2:45pm ET

Frosinone -220 | Draw +340 | Salernitana +500
Asian Handicap: Frosinone -1.0 | Total: 3.0

Frosinone vs Salernitana Serie A Prediction

While not official, it’s too little, too late for Salernitana as they sit 13 points back of safety with only five matches to go.

Anything but a win would officially relegate Salernitana, so I expect a full-fledged effort to try and win this match. But, let’s be honest, for them to win the match, that will require goals as this defense, which ranks dead last in the league, cannot stop anyone including Frosinone.

Salernitana did keep two clean sheets this season, which both happened to come on the road, a 1-0 win at Verona, one of just two wins this season, and a 0-0 draw at Torino.

Aside from that, they conceded at least two goals in 25 of 33 matches this season and have allowed 2.05 xG per match which rises to 2.29 away from home. The question isn’t will Frosinone score, it’s how many?

Frosinone has just one win over their last 21 matches but control their destiny at the bottom thanks to a great run to start the season, especially at home where they had just one loss in their first eight matches.

A win here though, which oddsmakers certainly expect, will be a huge boost in their battle against relegation. They have been good at finding the net at home, scoring in all but three matches which came against three Top-5 defenses, Bologna, Roma, and Torino. Obviously much different than this Salernitana side.

I first looked at taking Frosinone team total over 1.5, but being priced at -200, it was an obvious pass, though it’s a clear indicator of what oddsmakers expect to happen.

The other option was both teams to score + over 2.5 goals but I’m not fully confident in Salernitana and a final score of 3-0 would at least get us a push instead of a loss in that scenario. Regardless, I expect goals in this match, play it however you feel is best, but I’m keeping it simple on Over 3.0.

Serie A Prediction: Over 3.0 Goals (+100)

Lazio vs Verona | Saturday April 27 | 2:45pm ET

Lazio -165 | Draw +280 | Verona +400
Asian Handicap: Lazio -0.75 | Total: 2.25

Lazio vs Verona Serie A Prediction

While Verona is in the battle against relegation, they currently sit three points clear of Frosinone in 18th place. Plus, there are two other teams below Verona in the table, but ahead of Frosinone so it’s crowded space at the bottom which helps Verona as well.

Sure, the “will to live” is strong with teams at the bottom of the table near the end of the season, but in this match, I actually think the more desperate team is Lazio.

They were eliminated from the Coppa Italia on Tuesday losing to Juventus in the semifinals, so a strong finish to the season in their only chance at qualifying for any European competition next season.

Most importantly, the Champions League is not out of reach as they sit just three points back of Roma for 5th in the table, which this year is the final Champions League qualification. Roma does have a game in hand though on Lazio which makes this all that more important to win.

Lazio has been strong in Rome all season with a +0.60 xG differential per match which includes wins over Atalanta, Roma, Juventus and even Bayern in the Champions League round of 16. They are more than capable of grabbing a win against Verona who has just two away wins this season and own a -0.62 xG differential per match.

To Verona’s credit, they do a solid job of limiting their opponents as only four times this season have they allowed three goals and not once have they allowed more than that. That makes adding Under 3.5 goals an attractive option.

When it comes to getting a result, Verona’s draw at Atalanta two weeks ago was their only Top-9 result as they have losses at Milan, Juventus, Inter, Roma, Bologna and even Napoli and Fiorentina.

It may only come by one goal which happened in six of those seven losses, and makes laying the -0.75 handicap a little less attractive, but all seven saw this parlay cash.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay Lazio + Under 3.5 Goals (+120)

Bologna vs Udinese | Sunday April 28 | 9:00am ET

Bologna -175 | Draw +265 | Udinese +450
Asian Handicap: Bologna -0.75 | Total: 2.25

Bologna vs Udinese Serie A Prediction

My timing on Bologna has been great (sarcasm) as I bet on them in back-to-back weeks against Frosinone and Monza which both ended in 0-0 draws then I didn’t touch them last week at Roma where they won 3-1.

I’m going to try them again here in a match they should win, and need to win to keep ahead of the chasing group trying to work into the Champions League qualification spots.

Though Bologna didn’t win those two matches I mentioned, xG showed a combined 5.23 – 0.98 tally between the two matches so it’s not like they weren’t creating chances, they just couldn’t convert. They were able to do so though at Roma scoring three goals on 1.83 xG as those trends always seem to revert to the mean over time.

At home, they still have been incredible with just two losses this season, both coming against the sides from Milan, while they have kept 11 clean sheets in 17 matches and is the main reason I’m backing them again here.

Udinese has been the king of the draw this season, but for the most part, those results have come against teams in the bottom half of the table as they have struggled to get results against the top sides. Just looking at their 14 matches this calendar year, they have seven losses and their xG chances created have not been good in those losses:

0.07 vs Inter
0.38 vs Torino
0.32 at Genoa
0.62 at Atalanta
0.81 vs Milan
0.61 vs Lazio

As a result, they were held scoreless in four of those matches. Bologna ranks as the 4th best defense according to xG and I just don’t see them allowing many quality chances to Udinese. So I expect another clean sheet here, let’s just hope Bologna find at least one goal this time to capture all three points.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna -0.75 (-125)

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