San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS May 7

Last year’s Western Conference regular season points leaders, Colorado Rapids, currently sit eighth in the table this season with a 3-3-3 record an even 11:11 goal differential. The underlying metrics suggest there is not much different from last year to this year. In 2021, they finished with the third-best xG differential in the West at +0.22 per game behind LAFC and Seattle.

This season thus far, they are averaging a +0.15 xG differential, with a slight uptick in both xG and xGA at 1.57 – 1.42 (1.46 – 1.24 in 2021). But here is the difference this season: On the road those numbers have fallen to -0.34 per game thanks to allowing a much higher 1.86 xGA average compared to just 1.49 last year. In terms of actual goals, they have allowed three goals in three of their four away matches this season.

San Jose’s Historically Bad Defense

The worst xGA numbers in the MLS over the last three seasons was New England allowing 1.86 xGA per game back in 2019. (In case you were wondering, Portland was the worst each of the last two seasons at 1.84 in 2020 and 1.82 in 2021). But this year, San Jose is poised to smash those numbers as they are currently allowing a whopping 2.32 xGA per game! While we have played only nine games and are a mere quarter of the way through the season, it is more than alarming.

San Jose has conceded a league-high 23 goals this year while still managing to get theirs, scoring 15 goals themselves, leading to an MLS high 4.2 goals per game, and thus have a 7-2 O-U record vs 2.5 goals. They are allowing 6.3 shots on goal per game, most in the MLS, but they are generating 13.3 shots per game themselves which is the eighth-most in the league. For a team that is bottom in the league in terms of xG differential, it’s not their offense that is the problem.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Prediction

It’s hard to ignore just how bad San Jose’s defense has been and there is little indication that it will miraculously improve for this match. This total is set much too low in my opinion as Colorado may net three themselves, which San Jose has allowed at least three goals five times already this season.

At the same time, albeit a small sample size, Colorado has been much worse on the road defensively this season compared to last year and I find it very unlikely that they are able to keep a clean sheet as San Jose has scored in all five home matches and two or more goals in four of those.

I expect plenty of chances coming in this match and hopefully goals along with it, so play over 2.75 goals (+100) in Saturday’s San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids showdown.