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MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview April 27

Lionel Messi of Inter Miami preps for MLS match against Philadelphia Union

MLS Match Betting Preview for April 27

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his April 27 MLS match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal and New England Revolution vs Inter Miami. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have high or low scoring matches? Read his MLS betting preview Now


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Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal | Saturday April 27 | 7:30pm ET

Columbus -205 | Draw +340 | Montreal +475
Asian Handicap: Columbus -1.0 | Total: 3.0

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Montreal started the season with six away matches and while they were able to earn two wins and draw in their first three, the reality of all those road matches caught up to them with three straight losses at Chicago, DC, and Seattle by a combined 3-10 score.  Certainly ugly.  They have since played back-to-back home matches with a win and a draw over Cincinnati and Orlando, respectively.

As they head back on the road, I like them to walk away with a result from this match for a couple of reasons.  First, you can make the argument that Montreal is the most road-tested team in the league which certainly helps, but more importantly, this is another classic fade of an MLS team competing in a midweek Champions Cup match.

Columbus, the lone remaining MLS team in the Champions Cup, earned a strong 2-1 home win over Monterrey in Leg 1 of the semifinals on Wednesday.  There are few, if any, MLS teams as good at Monterrey and the match was certainly a battle, so I expect some fatigue in this letdown spot for the hosts.

Additionally, for as good a Columbus is, has been, and can be, they have played 14 matches already this season, ten MLS and four Champions Cup, and have just one single win by more than one goal, leaving them 1-9-4 against this spread.

In an almost identical spot in the last round of the Champions Cup, Columbus earned a home draw against Liga MX side Tigres in Leg 1 of their quarterfinal draw, then subsequently settled for a 1-1 home draw against DC United as -1.0 favorites.

We could be looking at déjà vu all over again here.

MLS Prediction: CF Montreal +1.0 (-105)

FC Cincinnati vs Colorado Rapids | Saturday April 17 | 7:30pm ET

FC Cincinnati -140 | Draw +270 | Colorado +360
Asian Handicap: FC Cincinnati -0.75 | Total: 2.5

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One of my favorite things to do early in the season is to find the anomalies and bet against them. In this match, that’s fading Colorado and it’s not because I think they are a poor team by any means as they look much improved from last season. However, they have been fortunate in terms of where their goals have come from, and you can easily argue three or four of their results could be different.

Colorado has been handed four PKs already this season, scoring three of them, plus they have forced two additional own goals. Compare that to Cincinnati who has been awarded only one PK this season, they didn’t score it, and no own goals. Take away those fortunate goals and it becomes easy to question where will the Rapids goals come from?

Remember, Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the league allowing only 0.89 xGA per 90 minutes which drops to a paltry 0.50 at home.

After losing back-to-back matches vs NYRB and at Montreal, Cincinnati rebounded with a win beating a very good Atlanta squad 2-1 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium which is a very difficult thing to do.

After a slow start to the season for reigning MVP, Luciano Acosta, in which he had no goals and two assists in his first six matches including Champions Cup, Lucho has since added four goals and four assists over his last seven matches including contributing on both goals in their 2-1 win over Atlanta last weekend.

With a question mark of where Colorado’s goals come from along with Acosta surging into form, this looks like a straightforward home win for Cincinnati, the same team who hauled the most points at home last season.

MLS Prediction: FC Cincinnati -0.75 (-105)

New England Revolution vs Inter Miami | Saturday April 27 | 7:30pm ET

New England +215 | Draw +260 | Miami +110
Asian Handicap: Miami -0.25 | Total: 3.0

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New England couldn’t have started the season any worse with just one win in their first nine matches. They had the excuse of competing in the Champions Cup for the first few weeks as they progressed to the quarterfinals, but it wasn’t because they were playing great, they were just handed about as easy of a path as you can ask for until running into Liga MX side, Club America, where they were smacked 9-2 on aggregate.

Since being eliminated though, things haven’t gotten much better as they lost both matches at NYCFC and at Toronto without scoring a goal. With this game at home though, and now a full two weeks removed from playing midweek every week, I like their chances to have a good gameplan to find at least a goal in this match.

I’m not certain that they can keep pace with the Herons and their ability to score at any time thanks to their infamous roster, but I do believe they will score here.

Some of that comes down to simply the way Miami plays. They don’t sit back and absorb the game by any means. When an opportunity is there, Miami, led by Busquets in midfield, will quickly look to transition the ball forward to Messi and Suarez, the lethal combo that has a combined 13 goals and nine assists between them already, just in MLS matches.

No matter what oddsmakers have been doing with Miami’s totals, they can’t set them high enough as they have gone Over the total in 11 of their last 12 matches including Champions Cup and both teams have scored in ten of their last 11.

Since their first three games in which Miami kept two clean sheets, they have now conceded in 11 straight games, a total of 22 goals while we know it’s virtually impossible to keep them off the scoreboard, though it did happen one time this season, in a 0-4 loss at NYRB.

Despite New England’s offensive struggles, Miami’s open style of play should allow New England to find a few quality chances and so long as they score one of them, this parlay should have no problem cashing.

MLS Prediction: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-120)


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