Houston Dynamo vs Nashville Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS May 14

A few weeks ago, Houston was riding a five-game unbeaten streak and looked to be a team on the rise, at least at the surface level. However, their wins had come against some of the worst teams in the league in San Jose, Miami and Vancouver, the best of which Miami, has a -0.49 xG differential.

Overall, Houston has been lucky with their schedule as they have not faced any of the real contenders thus far. According to xG (expected goals), the best team they have faced was Austin with a +0.30 xG differential per game which ranks No. 10 in the league. Yet still, they are winless in their seven games vs mid-table teams and have lost three straight. Even with their weak schedule, they still have a negative xG differential at -0.07 per game.

Road-Tested Nashville

Nashville spent the first two months of the season on the road as they finished construction on their new stadium, GEODIS Park, which they officially opened on May 1 with a draw vs Philadelphia.

They fared pretty well during their travels as they lost only three of those eight matches which included a win at a very good Columbus team who are ranked fourth in the league with a +0.64 xG differential. Add in matches vs LA Galaxy and Philadelphia and they have played a much tougher schedule than Houston, yet still have posted a +0.36 xG differential.

Of their three losses this season, two of them came in their first four games, but since they have just one loss in their last six matches and have posted an even stronger +0.58 xG differential.

Houston Dynamo vs Nashville Prediction

The numbers don’t lie and Houston is simply not performing very well this season, which should come as no surprise as they have posted negative xG differentials in each of the last three seasons. They usually do perform significantly better at home than they do on the road but have only managed two wins in six matches this season.

Regardless, Nashville is the most road-tested team in the league and should have no problem going on the road and grabbing a win here. But as a nice safety net, the line is currently set as a pick’em with the Draw No Bet (or +0) currently available at -110. These teams have only met twice in their history and Houston has not won. I don’t expect it to happen here either. Play Nashville Draw No Bet (+0) -110.