Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS April 16
Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers betting preview for Saturday, April 16. The Timbers are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Houston, earning four wins and two draws. Can Portland keep the run going on Saturday?
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| Saturday, April 16 | MLS Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo: | +115 |
| Portland Timbers: | +235 |
| Draw: | +265 |
| Total: | 2.75 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 6:00pm ET / 3:00pm PT |
Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers Analysis
A quick look at the table shows Houston with a 3-2-1 record and +3 goal differential and you might quickly think Houston has improved this season. But not so fast.
Houston is unbeaten in their last four games with three wins and a draw, but those three wins came against three of the worst teams in the MLS: San Jose, Miami and Vancouver. Currently, all three teams rank in the bottom-seven when looking at xG (expected goals) numbers this season. San Jose is the worst in the league at -0.99 per game while the best of the three, Miami, sits a -0.40.
Sure, it’s only been six games for those teams so perhaps the small sample size is not telling the bigger picture, but those numbers are right on par with how they finished last season. All three teams last year finished in the bottom six on xG with Miami coming in as the worst of the bunch at -0.58 and Vancouver the best at -0.29. Vancouver did make the playoffs last year but were bounced, as-expected, out of the first round.
In their other three games against good teams – Colorado, Kansas City and Salt Lake (all playoff teams from last year that at least reached the second round) – Houston has gone winless with two draws and a loss, scoring just one total goal between all three games.
The Experienced Timbers
Then of course we have Portland, who lost in the MLS Cup Final last year to New York City on penalty kicks and were also recent winners of the MLS is Back tournament in 2020. They are loaded with talent and a ton of MLS experience and know how to grind out results better than anyone in the MLS.
They only have two wins so far this season in seven matches, but they also have just two losses as they have settled for three draws already. Their xG numbers aren’t great by any means, currently at -0.16 per game, but it’s very similar to Houston who come in at -0.04.
But the thing about experience is that Portland knows how to finish the chances they do get better than any other team in the league. In fact, they have outperformed their xG numbers in each of the last three seasons.
2019: +0.14 (+0.09 actual goal differential vs -0.05 xG)
2020: +0.94 (+0.48 actual goal differential vs -0.46 xG)
2021: +0.33 (+0.12 actual goal differential vs -0.21 xG)
The 2020 season was shortened to just 23 games because of COVID, but that +0.94 difference in actual goal vs xG is remarkable. All three years just prove that knowing how to finish is more important than just creating chances.
Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers Prediction
Bottom line is I have learned to look past xG data when analyzing Portland and instead just focus on their actual results. They find ways to earn points better than any other team in the MLS including having a great record vs Houston as they are unbeaten in the last six head-to-head meetings with four wins and two draws. Houston has proven themselves inept at beating good teams so I’ll gladly grab the head start on Portland +0.5 (-125) on the goal line.
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
WagerTalk Soccer Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, goal spreads and totals for all of this weekend’s MLS games, including this Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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