UFC Fight Night: Medic vs Rodriguez Picks, Predictions and Odds August 1, 2026

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for July 25, 2026 with the main event headlined by Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez in a light heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 1:00pm ET from Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia.

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Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, August 1	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Uros Medic -315 vs Daniel Rodriguez +300
Rounds:	1.5 (Over +152 / Under -196)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
Arena:	Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
TV:	Paramount+

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions

Jan Blachowicz (+260) vs Navajo Stirling (-305)

Jan is now 43 years old and hasn’t won a fight since 2022. He still has some of the best leg kicks in the division, and his experience, fight IQ, and durability remain assets, but he’s simply not as fast or as explosive as he once was.

Stirling has improved dramatically since joining the UFC. He’s powerful enough to finish opponents, strong enough to dominate in the clinch, and showed excellent submission defense against Ion Cutelaba. His movement is superior, his cardio has held up over three rounds, and he’s continuing to develop every time out.

Youth, speed, and athleticism make Stirling the easy pick.

Marcin Tybura (+285) vs Aleksandar Rakic (-300)

This feels like a loser-leaves-town fight.

Tybura has dropped two straight and looked completely outclassed in both performances. He was slow, offered very little offensively, and didn’t look competitive.

Rakic hasn’t been much better, losing four straight while battling injuries and long layoffs. His durability is a concern, and inactivity never helps, but he should still be significantly faster and more powerful than the version of Tybura we’ve seen recently.

I won’t be betting it because of the risk involved, but Rakic is the pick.

Dusko Todorovic (+150) vs Robert Valentin (-156)

Valentin has struggled since joining the UFC, going just 1-3. His lone win came against an opponent who looked like he was only on the card because it was a Canadian event and the UFC wanted a hometown favorite.

Valentin has decent striking, but his wrestling hasn’t been dependable, and he’s already been knocked out twice inside the Octagon.

Todorovic has his own durability concerns, but he’s always dangerous offensively and has legitimate finishing ability. Both fighters desperately need a win, which should lead to an aggressive fight with plenty of risks being taken.

I don’t think this one reaches the scorecards. Someone probably gets knocked out before the third round. I’d be looking toward the under.

Vlasto Cepo (-270) vs Gilbert Urbina (+257)

Cepo is absolute chaos.

He comes flying out of the gate, throwing nonstop combinations until he either knocks his opponent out or completely empties the gas tank. It’s exactly the kind of style the UFC loves to showcase.

The downside is his cardio. Every one of his career losses has come after surviving the opening round, making him extremely dependent on finding an early finish. Opponents have also had success slowing him down by clinching him against the fence.

Unfortunately for Urbina, this is about as bad a matchup as possible. He’s been knocked out in each of his last two fights, and I don’t think he’ll handle Cepo’s relentless pressure. Cepo by first-round knockout is my favorite way to play it.

Milos Janicic (-143) vs Noah Gugnon (+116)

These are two talented, powerful strikers, but I actually prefer the underdog.

Janicic’s recent strength of schedule leaves plenty of questions. Most of his recent wins have come against aging or lower-level competition.

Gugnon appears to have the better clinch game, and I think he can control Janicic against the fence while mixing in takedowns if necessary. I love the value on Gugnon at plus money.

Ludovit Klein (-213) vs Tofiq Musayev (+203)

This has the potential to be one of the most exciting fights on the card.

Both guys are capable of producing violent finishes and are coming off impressive wins. Musayev also showed some very solid grappling in his last performance, which adds another wrinkle.

Klein’s only recent loss came against Mateusz Gamrot, one of the division’s elite wrestlers. Musayev isn’t Gamrot, but it’s nice knowing he has wrestling available if needed.

Klein is probably the cleaner technical striker, but at this price I think the betting value sits with Musayev.

Michael Oliveira (-285) vs Oban Elliott (+270)

Oliveira entered the UFC with plenty of hype, and I think it’s justified.

He’s big, strong, accurate, and showed outstanding patience on the Contender Series. He looks like someone who could become a legitimate contender.

Elliott has struggled on the ground in his last two fights, although I don’t expect Oliveira to rely heavily on wrestling here. That means Elliott should get the striking battle he wants.

I’ve faded Elliott in each of his last two fights because he seems to overthink exchanges instead of reacting naturally. I’m fully buying into Oliveira, and I think he wins a clear decision.

Mark Vologdin (-104) vs Borislav Nikolic (-121)

Nikolic will have roughly a six-inch height advantage, and that’s going to matter.

Vologdin should be the quicker fighter, and I think he’ll have opportunities to wrestle because Nikolic stands very upright and doesn’t defend takedowns particularly well. Vologdin is short, stocky, and physically strong enough to create those opportunities.

Still, over the course of three rounds I think Nikolic’s reach and length become the deciding factors.

Vologdin is likely to face this problem repeatedly during his UFC career, and I think it costs him here. Nikolic uses the jab, manages distance, and wins a decision.

Bogdan Grad (-170) vs Dennis Buzukja (+163)

Both fighters enter on losing streaks, but the quality of competition tells a very different story. Grad has been losing to legitimate UFC-caliber opponents, while Buzukja has already been

knocked out multiple times inside the promotion. His lone UFC victory came against lower-level competition.

This feels like a matchup designed to give Grad a win while potentially clearing a roster spot if Buzukja loses again. Grad is the pick.

Mateusz Rebecki (-355) vs Kyle Prepolec (+335)

Rebecki should win, but I have a hard time laying this kind of price.

Every one of his fights turns into an all-out war, which is exactly why the UFC loves him. The downside is that he absorbs an incredible amount of punishment, and his face seems to swell and bleed more with every fight.

Prepolec isn’t an elite fighter. He’s fairly slow, although he throws good kicks and actually looked solid against Drew Dober before the unfortunate groin strike sequence that led to him immediately getting finished after continuing.

Interestingly, Dober fights with a similar aggressive style to Rebecki, so Prepolec has already experienced that type of pressure. Rebecki shouldn’t be -355 given how much damage he absorbs. A small sprinkle on Prepolec by decision isn’t the worst longshot.

Nina Milosevic (-355) vs Hailey Cowan (+335)

Cowan follows a familiar pattern. She looks fantastic physically, starts fast, and then completely fades before the first round is even over.

Her offense largely consists of pressing opponents against the fence and hanging on. Defensively, there are major holes. She’s now 0-3 in the UFC and has been finished in each of her last two appearances.

Milosevic is a solid striker, but her biggest strength is getting fights to the ground, where she can control opponents, ground-and-pound, or hunt submissions.

The concern is her level of competition, as she hasn’t fought anyone close to UFC caliber before this. Milosevic is the rightful pick because Cowan simply doesn’t do enough offensively to win rounds, but the betting price is too steep for me.

Jovan Leka (-225) vs Alexander Poppeck (+190)

Leka has a simple but effective game plan.

He pressures forward, drives opponents to the fence, secures takedowns, and either finishes the fight on the ground or controls the entire round. If he gets you down, you’re usually in trouble.

Poppeck is a tall, athletic striker, making this a classic wrestler-versus-striker matchup.

I don’t think this fight reaches the judges because both fighters have such clear advantages in their preferred areas.

Ultimately, Leka is the naturally bigger man. Poppeck is a light heavyweight, while Leka is a true heavyweight competing in his own division. The size and wrestling advantage make Leka the pick.

Marina Spasic (+230) vs Stephanie Luciano (-310)

I definitely won’t be laying -310 on Luciano.

She should be the better fighter, but I don’t think the gap is nearly that wide.

Spasic is a strong front-runner. When she’s the superior fighter, she marches opponents down with pressure and striking while imposing her will.

Luciano has improved over her last few fights. She’s still somewhat low-volume on the feet, but she’s accurate, and she added takedowns and a submission in her most recent victory.

If you believe in that continued improvement, Luciano is the logical side. Personally, I don’t think her overall game is enough better than Spasic’s to justify this price. For me, it’s underdog or pass.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Uros Medic -315 vs Daniel Rodriguez +300

Medic has rattled off three straight knockout wins, proving once again that his power is legitimate. He’s the definition of a kill-or-be-killed fighter, and when he lands clean, fights end quickly.

Rodriguez enters this fight under very difficult circumstances after spending an extended period in a Mexican prison, where he was reportedly malnourished and unable to train properly. That’s an impossible situation to ignore.

Add in the fact that he’s now 39 years old, and it’s hard to believe we’ll see the same Daniel Rodriguez we’ve watched over the years. I don’t think Rodriguez has the power to put Medic away, and Medic’s explosiveness should be the difference.

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