San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Prediction and Odds September 20
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick: The Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Tuesday’s San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals clash at Petco Park. The Cardinals have won all three of their games against the Padres so far this season.
| Tuesday, September 20 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | San Diego Padres -110 vs St. Louis Cardinals +100 |
| Runline: | Padres -1.5 (+190) / Cardinals +1.5 (-220) |
| Total: | 8 Runs (Over -105 / Under -115) |
| Game Time: | 9:40pm ET / 6:40pm PT |
| Where: | Petco Park in San Diego, CA |
| Weather: | 70 Degrees / Clear |
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Analysis
The San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday night in the first of a three game series. The Redbirds took three of five from the Reds at home last weekend, while the Friars took three of four from the Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
It’s a battle of right-handers as Adam Wainwright goes against Mike Clevinger, first pitch at Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 PM EDT / 6:40 PM PDT.
The Cards are the #3 divisional seed behind the Mets and Dodgers at 87-61, while San Diego has the second wild card berth at 81-66 – only 0.5 games ahead of the Phillies and 3.0 games up on the Brewers.
Cardinals Look To Continue Success vs Padres
Adam Wainwright seems to be the ageless wonder who still gets results at the major league level. The 41-year-old right-hander has been a core part of the Cardinals’ starting rotation, with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 29 starts and 178.0 innings.
Wainwright has 137 strikeouts and allowed just 47 walks and 14 big flies. However, he hasn’t been in great current form, going just 5.0 innings in each of his last three starts versus the Cubs, Nationals and Brewers – and giving up nine, nine and eight hits, respectively.
St. Louis has been a solid club at the plate this season, as they sport the 4th best OPS and are 7th best in home runs and batting average – and the 4th lowest team strikeout rate. The pitching staff has held up their end of the bargain with a 9th best staff and 12th lowest bullpen ERA.
The Redbirds are also solid on the base paths, with the 8th most stolen bases of any team in MLB. I know that steals aren’t as sexy of a stat as big flies, but I like this aggressive brand of baseball that puts pressure on the opposing pitchers and defenses.
I realize that it’s hard to quantify stolen bases into a mathematical or betting advantage. However, it’s an intangible factor to keep in mind for the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs.
Padres Putting Together Wins
Mike Clevinger spent the first few weeks of 2022 battling the injury bug, pitched well through the first 2/3rds of the season once he got healthy, and has struggled over the last five weeks.
The right-hander has had a recent problem with the long ball, giving up nine bombs in five starts – and four of those were versus playoff teams in the Yankees, Mariners and Dodgers (twice). He’ll face another playoff team tonight with plenty of power in Goldschmidt, Arenado and Pujols, this doesn’t bode well for the former Cleveland hurler.
Clevinger hasn’t struck out a lot of hitters in the last month and a half, with four or less strikeouts in each of his last eight outings. And he’s given up 21 hits in the last 18.1 innings – not the kind of numbers you want to see from a starting pitcher in September.
The Padres feast-or-famine lineup has continued to plague them in recent games. They’ve scored just two runs or less in five of their last seven outings, and scored 18 combined runs in the other two games.
But the team’s pitching staff has carried them for most of 2022, with the 9th lowest team ERA in baseball. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and the resurgent Blake Snell are one of the best starting pitching trios, and makes them really dangerous in a five or seven-game series.
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
Neither starting pitcher is in good recent form, St. Louis has hit right-handers better than San Diego over the last 30 days, and both bullpens are about even.
This will be Clevinger’s first start against the Cardinals in 2022, and the second game versus the Friars for Wainwright – who pitched 7.0 shutout innings of two-hit ball versus the Padres on May 31st, while striking out 10.
However, this is only Wainwright’s second road start since late July and it could be a challenge, even for the experienced veteran.
It’s basically a pick ’em game, and I don’t have a real strong lean to either side. But given the amount of hits and runs that both starters have given up recently, I do like the full game over 7.5 runs scored.
Prediction: Over 8 Total Runs Scored
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First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Tuesday, September 20
Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective. Join WagerTalk’s team of MLB betting experts every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT for First Pitch as we discuss the baseball betting slate.
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About The Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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