San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction and Betting Odds August 29
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Monday’s San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres clash at Oracle Park. The Giants are losers of 4-straight putting them 7.5 games back in the NL Wildcard. The Padres sit in the last NL Wildcard spot by 1.5 games.
| Monday, August 29 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | San Francisco Giants -140 vs San Diego Padres +118 |
| Runline: | Giants -1.5 (+160) / Padres +1.5 (-180) |
| Total: | 7 Runs (Over -125 / Under +105) |
| Game Time: | 9:45pm ET / 6:45pm PT |
| Where: | Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA |
| Weather: | 60 Degrees / Clear |
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Analysis
The San Diego Padres visit the San Francisco Giants in the first of a three game NL West series. The Friars took two of three from the Royals in Kansas City, while San Fran just finished an eight game roadie where they lost two of three to the Rockies, split two games with Detroit and lost three to Minnesota.
Mike Clevinger gets the start for San Diego against Carlos Rodon for San Francisco, first pitch scheduled for 9:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park.
The Padres have the final wild card berth, 1.5 games ahead of the Brewers, and the Giants’ postseason hopes are fading. They’re 7.5 games behind San Diego in the wild card race with just 36 games to play.
Padres Need to Put Up or Shut Up
San Diego has played just under .500 baseball at 7-8 since they found out Fernando Tatis was suspended for the 2022 season and playoffs. They’ve played the Nationals in two series, the Marlins, Royals and Guardians.
With the exception of Cleveland (the #3 seed in the AL), it’s not exactly a “Murderer’s Row” of opponents. The Padres will have to step up their play the last five weeks of the season to hang on to the final wild card spot.
All but eight games are versus NL West teams, and nine of those against the Dodgers – six at home in Petco Park.
Mike Clevinger’s season was delayed and has been interrupted by injuries. But when he has pitched for the Padres, he’s almost always kept his team in the game. In 16 games and 15 starts, the Padres right-hander has posted a 3.59 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. And in 12 of those starts, he’s allowed just three earned runs or less.
He’s not a big innings eater, as he averages just over 5.0 innings per start. However, if Clevinger can do his job and give his team solid starts of five to six innings down the stretch, I think manager Bob Melvin will be happy with that.
San Francisco Has Giant Hill to Climb
The San Francisco Giants need to play better ASAP, or they won’t be playing in the postseason. They’re 2-8 in their last 10 games, are just five games above .500 at home and are just 24-34 versus teams with a better than .500 record.
A 7.5 game deficit doesn’t seem like much of a gap in June or July. But when we’re almost into September it looks more like a mini-Grand Canyon.
Reminds me of the phrase from the movie Smokey and the Bandit: “We got a long way to go and a short time to get there…”, and that’s where San Fran is with 36 games to play.
One bright spot for this team in 2022 has been flame-throwing southpaw Carlos Rodon. In 25 starts and 147.1 innings, he’s put up a 2.81 ERA with an excellent 1.03 WHIP and 189 strikeouts, and in 22 of those 25 starts, Rodon has given up three earned runs or less. I don’t know if his stats are good enough to beat out Gonsolin, Alcantara or Urias for the NL Cy Young, but his numbers make him worthy of consideration.
The two biggest weaknesses of the Giants have been inconsistent hitting and a lousy bullpen. The Giants firemen started the season in the top 10 for team bullpen ERA, but the wheels came off and now they’re in the bottom 10.
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction
Looking at this game, I’m not crazy about either side. The Giants are really struggling and should be desperate for a win, but they haven’t hit right-handed pitching that well and will face a pretty good righty in Clevinger. It’s their first game back from an extended road trip – which is usually a spot to fade the home team.
The Padres haven’t played well over the last two weeks, but the bats came alive for 24 combined runs in their three game weekend series in Kansas City.
Tonight will be a much more difficult task going against one of the best pitchers in the National League. However, San Diego is 12th in OPS versus southpaws the last 30 days, and 1st in OPS against lefties the last 15 days.
I think this will be a close, low-scoring game, and although I usually like to pick the 1st 5 innings total or side, the 3.5 total runs is a little too low.
Rodon should give the Giants a solid six to seven innings to keep the Padres lineup in check, and San Fran will struggle to get hits and runs from Clevinger. I don’t like the Giants bullpen, but I think they can be good enough for one time through the lineup. That’s why I’ll take the full game under 7.5 runs.
Prediction: Under 7.5 Total Runs Scored
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First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Monday, August 29
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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