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The Open Championship Predictions, Picks and Odds July 20-23

Scottie Scheffler prepares for Charles Schwab Challenge

The Open Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the The Open Championship teeing off from Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, England. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding The Open Championship starting July 20!

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The Open ChampionshipPGA Tour Betting Notes
When:July 20-23
Where:Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, England
Defending Champ:Cameron Smith
Current Favorite:Scottie Scheffler (+700 at DraftKings)
TV:USA & NBC

The Open Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

 

The Open Championship top 10 strokes gained

The Course & Field – Royal Liverpool Golf Club (Hoylake, England)

From Nick Borrman:

Just like that, the final major of the year is here at a venue where the last two winners are the most decorated golfers of their generations as Rory McIlroy won in 2014 while none other than Tiger Woods hoisted the claret jug here in 2006.

However, with so much time in between those events and so much changed to the venue for this year, course history is probably something you shouldn’t spend too much time looking at. Instead, just focusing on links results in general will be a better strategy.

As hinted, Royal Liverpool has changed since the last time it hosted The Open Championship. The track will play as a par 71 this time around as the easiest hole on the course in 2014, the par 5 10th at 532 yards, will now play as a 507-yard par 4. Hole 18 is also likely to get much attention this week.

Bombers could have easily taken advantage of the closing par 5, but the R&A fought back by bringing OB in play just a few yards right of the fairway. I would expect many misses to the left because of that, especially down the stretch.

Of course, this is The Open Championship, and the venue is only half of the discussion as most people tune in to witness high winds and rain wreaking havoc on the players.

Royal Liverpool is certainly susceptible to high winds, but as it stands now, winds are forecasted to only be in the moderate range of about 10-20 mph all week, though, there is light rain possible all four days.

So, although we may not experience the wrath of what Mother Nature could deliver, the players will still have to negotiate less-than-ideal conditions this week.

Trends are always fun to dig into when it comes to breaking down the majors. One of the most surprising ones that sticks out to me is this: Each of the last 13 Open Championship winners has finished outside the Top-25 in the previous year’s Open. Seems so strange to me.

The Open Championship Predictions

Links golf requires experience and while a longshot could certainly win as we have seen in the past with the likes of Shane Lowry, Darren Clarke, Louis Oosthuizen and even Zach Johnson, stick to the Top-20 or so on the oddsboard. If you do venture past that threshold, make sure they know links golf.

The Open Championship Outright Winner

Brooks Koepka +2200 (PointsBet)

While Koepka has not won this major championship before, he has been close. He missed the cut last year but that’s easy to forgive in the middle of the whole LIV Golf thing. But prior to that, Koepka had finished in the Top-10 in four of the previous five Open Championships.

We know he is in good enough form to win having lifted the Wanamaker trophy at the PGA Championship just two months ago and has since followed that up with four straight Top-20 finishes including a T17 at the US Open.

Koepka can bomb it and when he is on, he is one of the best iron players on the planet, it’s just a matter of whether he can have the flat stick rolling well enough this week.

The key for him is getting off to a strong start as he doesn’t generally win his tournaments coming from behind. He is one of the best front-runners out there so I wouldn’t recommend adding him Live if he doesn’t play well in round 1.

The Open Championship Leaderboard Finish

Tyrrell Hatton Top-10 +240 | Top-20 +115 (Bet365)

I’ll go back to the well on Hatton as he had yet another Top-10 finish last week in Scotland. He was the betting favorite for a long period of time during the final round as he got off to a hot start, but in typical Hatton fashion, he melted down the stretch to settle for a T6.

Still, Hatton is playing as consistently as anyone with just one missed cut over the last year, a run of now 28 events worldwide.

Over that span, Hatton has 17 Top-20 finishes including 12 in the Top-10. Over just his last eight starts, his worst finish was a T27 which came at the US Open, which broke a run of six straight Top-20 finishes.

This season, he ranks:
9th SG Tee to Green
6th SG Putting
3rd Total SG
6th Scoring Average

Hatton has the rare combination of distance and accuracy off the tee. He has gained strokes off the tee in every event in 2023 except the Match Play. He will rely on the driver once again to put him near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Barracuda Championship

Peter Kuest +4500

I took Kuest last week and in what is basically the same field again this week, I’m going back to him, this time at much longer odds after his missed cut at the Barbasol Championship.

Kuest is fun to watch hit the golf ball, simple as that. He absolutely smashes his driver and when even just one other part of his game is clicking, he can contend.

Prior to his MC last week, in his previous two starts, not only did he gained strokes off the tee, but he has also did the same on approach and putting to finish T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T17 at the John Deere Classic.

He wasn’t quite as sharp at the Canadian Open, finishing T57, but he also had a Top-20 at the Byron Nelson in May, finishing T14. Again, in a very weak field, Kuest is one of the stars and I love that he is getting less attention this time around.

The Open Championship Betting Preview From WagerTalk Extra!

Tune in later as Nick Borrman and Andy Lang collaborate on WagerTalk Extra to give their individual The Open Championship betting predictions and picks before this event tees off on Thursday. Get their outright winner plays, golfers to fade and even DFS options to take advantage of.

2023 The Open Championship Picks, Predictions and Odds | PGA Tour Free Plays | WT Extra 7/18

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