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The RSM Classic Predictions, Free Picks and Odds November 16-19

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The RSM Classic Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the The RSM Classic teeing off from Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the The RSM Classic starting November 16th!


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The RSM ClassicThe RSM Classic Betting Notes
When:November 16-19
Where:Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia
Defending Champ:Adam Svensson
Current Favorite:Russell Henley (+1400 at DraftKings)
TV:Golf Channel

The RSM Classic Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

Screen Shot 2023 11 14 at 7.01.16 AM

The RSM Classic Betting Preview

Just like that, we have reached the final official 72-hole event of the extended 2023-24 season. This week, the field is set at 156 players as they will be rotating between the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course on Thursday and Friday before finishing the final 36 on the Seaside Course.

Seaside Course is a par 70 that measures just over 7,000 yards and was ranked as one of the easiest on the PGA Tour the last five years. However, this year, the wind looks like it will change that as winds are forecasted to be up on Thursday and Friday with rain expected on Thursday as well.

Plantation Course is a stock par 72 that measures just a few yards longer than the Seaside, thus playing shorter per stroke. However, it averages nearly a full stroke harder in relation to par than the Seaside Course.

With Thursday’s forecast expected to be a little worse than Friday, you could make the argument that playing the easier course in better weather may hold an advantage, so certainly pay attention to the tee time draw.

The field is a little deeper than we have seen the last few weeks. Ten players are ranked inside the Top-50 plus the favorite this week, Ludvig Aberg, who is still ranked outside the Top-50 at #53 but is rising quickly.

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ShotLink returns this week, though not on the Plantation Course so only three rounds will be measured, which is the same as in past years.

Unlike the last several tournaments, you will be able to find Strokes Gained numbers for previous editions of this event to help in making your selections this week.

If you look at the past winners here, distance is one skillset that hasn’t been needed to be successful. Past winners include Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Mackenzie Hughes, Robert Streb, Austin Cook and last year’s winner, Adam Svensson.

While not in Georgia, some of the biggest names in the world are teeing it up this week at the DP World Tour Championship including Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland, so if this isn’t that tournament for you, make sure to check out that one.

The RSM Classic Outright Winner: Corey Conners +2500 (FanDuel or DraftKings)

From Nick Borrman:

Conners is easily one of the best players in this field but for some reason he is being priced quite a bit behind the top four or five guys, like tournament favorite Ludvig Aberg at +1400.

Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that this is Conners’ first time teeing it up since the TOUR Championship at the end of August.

Normally I would avoid a guy coming off a 2.5-month break but considering this field, he is an elite ball-striker and should be able to rise to the top by Sunday.

We saw Conners end the season with seven Top-20 finishes in his final 11 starts plus he won the Valero Texas Open back in April.

Finally, Conners didn’t play at Sea Isle last year, but had played here four times prior including finishing no worse than T23 in his last three trips here. He can certainly make noise once again this this week.

The RSM Classic Finish Position: Alex Noren Top-10 +375 | Top-20 +180 (Bet365 or DraftKings)

Usually speaking, recency bias plays a huge part of pricing we see on guys from week to week. However, only one week removed from nearly winning the Bermuda Championship, finishing runner-up, it seems Noren has already been forgotten about with a few more recognizable names in this week’s field.

Noren also finished T3 at the Shriners Children’s Open so he has two near-misses this fall. Like Conners, Noren did not play here last year, but had played here for three straight seasons prior to that including a T10 and T18 finish.

Unlike Conners however, Noren’s skillset is nearly opposite as he is not a great ball-striker, especially off the tee. But he makes up for it with his short game and his putting which both rank in the Top-10 of this field.

I expect him to have another solid week and be in contention on Sunday.

See you in two weeks for the Hero World Challenge!


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