UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez Picks, Predictions and Odds February 21, 2026

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for February 21, 2026 with the main event headlined by Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the Toyota Center in Houston, TX.

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Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, February 21	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Sean Strickland +225 vs Anthony Hernandez -280
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -180 / Under +140)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Meta APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	Paramount+

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions

Carli Judice -675 vs Juliana Miller +420

Judice has a massive striking advantage with both power and volume. Miller is coming off a win over Petrovic, but that doesn’t mean much — she’s still very limited and won’t be competitive on the feet here.

While Miller has improved slightly in the clinch and physically, she’s not on Judice’s level striking. Judice by KO or decision is the prop to target.

Yadier Del Valle -400 vs Jordan Leavitt +290

Del Valle is coming off the Dulgarian fight where Dulgarian essentially threw the bout, but I liked Del Valle even before that matchup.

He’s physically imposing on fight night and should be too strong for Leavitt both on the feet and on the ground. Leavitt has slick submissions, but I don’t see him securing the takedowns needed to set them up. Del Valle by finish is the play.

Jean Paul Lebosnoyani -215 vs Phil Rowe +170

JPL has improved a lot over the last few years and is coming off a big KO win on Contender Series. He looks like a complete fighter with power, striking, and submission ability.

Rowe is a veteran, but his recent wins have come against low-level competition and he was losing badly before his opponent gassed in his last victory. Rowe is tough to finish, but doesn’t offer much offense. JPL by decision is the pick.

Ramiz Brahimaj -136 vs Punahele Soriano +106

Soriano has reinvented himself with three straight wins, fixing his cardio issues and implementing more wrestling.

Brahimaj is dangerous with submissions and all but one of his wins are by finish, mostly by submission. Soriano’s power and wrestling should allow him to stay out of danger and avoid the chokes. Soriano by decision is the play.

Joselyn Edwards -325 vs Nora Cornolle +260

Edwards has found finishing ability with three straight wins by finish. Cornolle has power, but throws low volume and is vulnerable to counters.

In her last fight she was taken down easily and couldn’t get up. This is a rematch where many thought Edwards won the first time. With added motivation and fewer flaws, Edwards should get the win.

Alden Coria -279 vs Luis Gurule +225

Underdog is the only way to look at this fight. Coria won his UFC debut and showed good composure and striking, but his opponent injured his foot late which led to the finish.

Gurule has lost two straight and has cardio concerns late in fights. Gurule can strike and isn’t terrible on the ground, but laying nearly -300 on Coria is too steep. Not a betting fight for me, but Gurule is the only playable side.

Alivi Idiris -135 vs Ode Osbourne +114

Idiris looked great on TUF but was dominated in the finale and finished. Osbourne continues to make costly mistakes and has one win in his last five.

He has striking ability but poor decision-making and weak ground defense. This is a sloppy fight where one mistake likely ends it. Fight does not go the distance is the play.

Carlos Leal -135 vs Chidi Njokuani +114

Both fighters are hard to trust. Leal nearly won his debut, then knocked out Morono, but walked into a KO shot in his last fight due to poor defense.

Chidi uses range well but leaves his chin exposed and was submitted quickly in his last bout. I don’t know if Chidi has the power to finish Leal cleanly. I can see Leal wearing him down in the clinch and with body work. Leal is the pick, but not confidently.

Michel Pereira -162 vs Zach Reese +136

I can’t trust Pereira anymore. He’s looked awful in his last three fights, with cardio and durability concerns. His finishing ability hasn’t shown up in a long time.

Reese has a solid ground game and is younger, though he hasn’t looked explosive lately. Pereira might simply be done. Reese at plus money is the pick. Fight not to go the distance is a strong parlay piece.

Jacobe Smith -258 vs Josiah Harrell +240

Smith has strong pedigree, discipline, and fight IQ. He’s fast and powerful but has shown a tendency to burn energy early.

Harrell is undefeated with great cardio and a solid ground game. He weathered adversity in his last fight and finished late. If Smith fades late, Harrell could capitalize. Small sprinkle on the dog is justified.

Ante Delija -155 vs Serghei Spivac +130

Delija likes to start fast and strike early. He was unlucky in his last fight when a KO was overturned due to an eye poke.

Spivac struggles badly on the feet and must get this to the ground. If he can’t wrestle successfully, he’s in trouble. Delija is the pick and could win by early finish.

Melquizael Costa -205 vs Dan Ige +170

Ige looked flat and tentative in his last fight, which is unlike him. Costa continues to improve and has won five straight with a mix of finishes and decisions.

His movement, cardio, and ground game give him multiple paths to victory. I expect Ige to perform better here, but Costa is the better fighter and the pick.

Geoff Neal -185 vs Uros Medic +154

Neal has only lost to elite competition and recently admitted to battling substance issues during prior fights.

When he’s focused, his striking and movement are excellent. Medic is kill-or-be killed and hasn’t gone to decision.

He leaves his chin open and takes risks. If Neal is in shape, he should catch Medic and finish him. Neal by KO is the pick.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Sean Strickland +225 vs Anthony Hernandez -280

Hernandez’s cardio is elite and his grappling suffocates opponents over five rounds. He doesn’t spend much time striking and overwhelms fighters on the ground.

Strickland is durable and a solid boxer but lacks knockout power, which may allow Hernandez to walk through shots to secure takedowns. If Hernandez is healthy after his injury, his style should dominate. Hernandez is the pick.

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