Charles Schwab Challenge 2025: Expert PGA Predictions & Betting Preview

Charles Schwab Challenge 2025 Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Charles Schwab Challenge teeing off from Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, TX! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Charles Schwab Challenge starting on May 22nd!

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Charles Schwab Challenge	Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Notes
When:	May 22-25
Where:	Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, TX
Defending Champ:	Davis Riley
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+250 at DraftKings)
TV:	CBS, Golf Channel

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview

You might be surprised to see Scheffler in the field this week following his PGA Championship win, but he has played this event every year since his rookie season as it’s in his backyard in Fort Worth, Texas.

While Scheffler hasn’t won there yet, and perhaps coming in off his win last week isn’t the best time to expect him to do so, the fact is he has only been beaten by a total of four golfers in the last three editions of this tournament finishing T2, T3, 2^nd the last three years. So perhaps stick to the ‘Without Scheffler’ markets this week.

It makes all the sense in the world as Colonial is another ball-striking course where precision is more important that power.

Last year was the first year we saw the new renovations done by Gil Hanse and his team where players saw plenty of changes around the property.

Every hole was touched in some way including two entirely new green locations on par 3s and new bentgrass putting surfaces on all 18-holes.

Despite the changes, the course remains a classic design with tight fairways. Past winners include Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Chris Kirk and Zach Johnson and if their skillsets tell us anything, it’s that you don’t have to be a long hitter to win here.

Of course, it always helps if you can keep it straight, as evidenced by last year’s winner, Davis Riley who can pop it pretty good.

Following the renovations, par remained the same as the course plays to a stock par-70 with just two par 5s, though the overall yardage has now reached nearly 7,300 in total.

Aside from the accuracy skillset needed to thrive around here, course history is generally a must as the last time a winner won in their first start here was Sergio Garcia back in 2001. That is the longest such drought of any current tournament.

As it usually the case here, don’t expect low-scoring this week. Davis Riley reached 14-under last year, but he was the only player in the field to eclipse double-digits with a 5-stroke win over Scottie Scheffler and Keegan Bradley. Prior to that, Grillo in 2023 and Sam Burns in 2022, both failed to reach 10-under par.

Finally, as we are in Texas, wind is generally a factor and standard Texas gusts are expected as players will face 10-20 mph all week with higher gusts at times. Rain doesn’t appear to be likely, and temperatures will be steady near 90 degrees.

Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions

Daniel Berger +2000 (Without Scheffler) | Top-10 +260 | Top-20 +120

Generally past winners have their odds reduced despite their current form, but that’s not the case with Berger. His form is also deserving of his price.

Berger won this event back in 2020 in the first event played post-COVID and has since added two Top-25s in three additional starts. He possesses the skillsets needed to win here with an accurate driver and strong iron play. This season alone, he has been more accurate in finding fairways than the field average in every start.

After missing two cuts in his first three starts this season, Berger has since made the weekend in all ten starts with eight Top-25 finishes. His worst finish was last week at the PGA Championship, a T33.

That has come on the heels of poor putting, at least by his standards, as he has lost strokes putting in three straight starts, albeit small. That snapped a streak of seven straight starts in which he gained strokes putting, so returning to greens in which he has won before will be a welcome sight.

Brian Harman +4000 (Without Scheffler) | Top-10 +500 | Top-20 +210

When you hear accuracy is more important than distance at any event, Brian Harman should be a name that immediately comes to mind.

Though he hasn’t won here, this is a regular stop for Harman every year as this will be the 13^th time he has played in this event. In the first 12 tries, Harman had seven Top-25 finishes and only two missed cuts.

This year, Harman comes in with solid recent form. Though he finished T60 last week at Quail Hollow, simply making the cut was always going to be difficult at such a long track.

I always look at no stress over the weekend as a positive thing heading into the next week. Before that, Harman won in Texas already this year at the Valero Texas Open and finished T3 at the RBC Heritage.

Harman has a strong short game and is good putter which are skillsets that always play up at Colonial.

See you next week for the Charles Schwab Challenge!

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