Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Over 7.5 Cards (+100)

Internacional vs Gremio
Brazil, Saturday, 7:30pm ET

Play: Over 7.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: +100
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

HUGE local derby and fierce rivalry in the city of Porto Alegre, dubbed the "Grenal" between Gremio and Internacional, and there's only one way to bet this game. CARDS.

This is one of the most vicious derbies in Brazil in terms of hostility, and we usually see some absurd card numbers in H2Hs. In L/6 H2Hs in all competitions we saw 12/6/4/10/8/11 total cards, with 6 red cards. Some times they play nice and we see low cards totals in the 3-5 range, but more often than not this match-up explodes and we see 8+ cards.

At this point in time, Internacional are running on a 4-match unbeaten streak and seemingly in good spirits, but Gremio are on the opposite side of things, win-less in L/4 and with just 1 win in L/8. But they did beat Internacional in the Campeonato Gaucho Finals, and Internacional will surely look for revenge, and also to extend Gremio's misery here.

The possibility of this turning into a card-fest is much bigger than these two playing nice, and the Card Total is set at 7.5, which means that the books are expecting WAR on Saturday.

Take 2% on the Over 7.5 Cards (+100), line good to -120.

NOTE: These matches are excellent for live betting, if there's no cards in the first 10 minutes you can take the Over 6.5 Cards at similar odds. But then again, there were 3 cards in the first 7 minutes when these two last met.

THE PLAY: Neymar 1+ Assist (+425)

Santos vs Atletico MG
Brazil, Saturday, 7pm ET

Play: Neymar 1+ Assist
Odds at Time of Release: +425
Line Parameter: Line good to +250

It's all about Neymar here, who is absolutely fighting to make the Brazil squad for the World Cup. Not sure if he makes it, but the sure thing is that he will try. He had a full week to rest as he was suspended in the league match last week and didn't make the squad mid-week, now back home for a match vs Atletico MG and there's value in taking his goal/assist prop.

Injuries and load management have kept him to just 4 matches in 2026, but he either scored or assisted in all 4 matches, with 3 goals and 2 assists total. He is eager to catch Ancelotti's eye and it's worth chasing his goal and/or assist tonight vs Atletico MG. He is +165 to Score Anytime at DraftKings, and +425 to Give at least one assist. Taking 2 and 1 units respectively.

Take 1% on Neymar Anyime Assist (+425 DraftKings), line good to +250

THE PLAY: Neymar Anytime Goalscorer (+165)

Santos vs Atletico MG
Brazil, Saturday, 7pm ET

Play: Neymar Anytime Goalscorer
Odds at Time of Release: +165 DraftKings
Line Parameter: Line good to +150

Play: Neymar 1+ Assist
Odds at Time of Release: +425
Line Parameter: Line good to +250

It's all about Neymar here, who is absolutely fighting to make the Brazil squad for the World Cup. Not sure if he makes it, but the sure thing is that he will try. He had a full week to rest as he was suspended in the league match last week and didn't make the squad mid-week, now back home for a match vs Atletico MG and there's value in taking his goal/assist prop.

Injuries and load management have kept him to just 4 matches in 2026, but he either scored or assisted in all 4 matches, with 3 goals and 2 assists total. He is eager to catch Ancelotti's eye and it's worth chasing his goal and/or assist tonight vs Atletico MG. He is +165 to Score Anytime at DraftKings, and +425 to Give at least one assist. Taking 2 and 1 units respectively.

Take 2% on Neymar Anytime Goalscorer (+165 DraftKings), line good to +150

THE PLAY: Total Over 3.0 (-115)

Portland vs LAFC
MLS, Saturday, 6:45pm ET

Play: Over 3 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Line good to -135

LAFC have not conceded a single goal after 6 matches in the MLS so far (W5 D1 L0), scoring 14 in the process. However, this is a very unrealistic run and looking at underlying numbers, LAFC have 6.7 xGA (Expected Goals Against), so that zero on their actual conceded goals will be erased soon.

Portland can do that, as they've scored in 5 of 6 matches so far, failing to do so only away at Colorado, which is always tough to play at, and they did create 12 chances with 3 on target and 1.11 xG but also had a red card.

At home, Portland have scored in all 3 matches, and they've consistently scored against LAFC over the years. In fact, last season they scored 3 in a 3-3 draw vs LAFC in this venue, and even beat them by 1-0 in LA. In 9 H2H in this venue, Portland scored in all 9, with an 8-1 to the Both Teams to Score and a 7-2 to the Over 2.5 Goals.

Historical data matter in the MLS more than in other leagues, and Portland have a good chance of breaking LAFC's clean sheet streak.

I gave out the Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals as a Free Play in my MLS video, but I ended up pivoting to the Over 3 Goals instead. I still expect at least 3 goals here, but with the Over 3 Goals we can get a push if either side wins 3-0 (probably LAFC). If this is indeed a Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals, we at least get our money back.

Take 3% on the Over 3 Goals (-115), line good to -135. If line moves to 3.25 take the Same Game Parlay with Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals instead.

THE PLAY: Racing Club 0.0 (-123)

Racing Club vs River Plate
Argentina, Sunday, 7pm ET

Play: Racing Club PK
Odds at Time of Release: -123
Line Parameter: Line good to -135

Both teams had mid-week matches in the Copa Sudamericana, both on the road, with Racing Club winning easily by 3-1 and River Plate struggling for a 1-1 draw. But there's a difference: Racing Club played a day earlier and rotated quite a bit (which means that starters didn't get extra fatigue), while River Plate played a day later, used a lot of starters and (that's the kicker here), they played the entire match down a man as they saw a Red Card at the 5th minute. They barely scraped a 1-1 draw, but the players got extra fatigue.

Racing Club are hosting River Plate on Sunday, and I like Racing Club PK (-123).

Racing Club beat River Plate by 3-2 when these two last met, and the one before that, and they've been very solid at home this season (W2 D1 L1), while River Plate have a balanced W3 D3 L2 record on the road and look like they are in decent shape, but they've had a very easy schedule so far.

I think Racing Club don't lose this one easily, and this could very well be a Draw, so the PK makes perfect sense here.

Take 3% on Racing Club PK (-123), line good to -135