Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Over 8 Cards Asian Line (-110)

Aldosivi vs San Martin SJ
Argentina, Saturday, 3pm ET

Play: Over 8 Cards Asian Line
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

Final match day in the regular season of the Clausura in Argentina, and we have a huge relegation battle between Aldosivi and San Martin SJ, who are sitting dangerously close to relegation in both cumulative tables. It's basically a kill-or-be-killed type of situation, with Aldosivi getting saved with a win or a draw, and San Martin only looking for a win to save themselves.

There's always cards in these relegation battles in Argentina and both teams are facing relegation, and we ride with the Over once again. Plus, there were 16 (!) cards in the reverse fixture, with 3 red cards as well. It won't take much for this to blow up to another card-fest.

Referee is THE best referee for cards in Argentina, Nicolas Ramirez, he just cashed our ticket last week with the Over 9.5 cards in the Boca vs River Derby, here are his stats:

2025: Average of 7.45 cards/match, average of 7.61 cards/match in league play
2024: Average of 7.69 cards/match, average of 7.80 cards/match in league play
2023: Average of 6.85 cards/match, average of 6.76 cards/match in league play

Take 2% on the Over 8 Cards Asian Line (-110), line good to -120

THE PLAY: REGULATION Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards Asian Line (-114)

Lanus vs Atletico Tucuman
Argentina, Friday, 6pm ET

Play: Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards Asian Line
Odds at Time of Release: -114
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Lanus are getting ready for the Copa Sudamericana Final next Saturday vs Atletico MG, but they do have the final match day of the regular season in the Clausura in their domestic league. They will make the playoffs no matter what, but it's Atletico Tucuman who are absolutely dying for a win here in order to have a chance for the playoffs. They are sitting 1 point behind the playoffs, and they are playing the only match on Friday, which means that if they win they will temporarily overtake 4 teams and wait for Saturday's results.

Lanus haven't been very aggressive lately, but Atletico Tucuman have.

Lanus Cards For at home: 2.2/game 
Lanus Cards Against at home: 2.53/game

Atletico Tucuman Cards For on the road: 3.00/game
Atletico Tucuman Cards Against on the road: 2.20/game

These stats tell us that Lanus get fewer cards at home than their opponents, and Atletico Tucuman get more cards on the road than their opponents.

The Asian Spread in Cards is 0.5, which means that getting Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards makes perfect sense based on stats. And that also checks out based on the urgency for the two teams, with Lanus being much more comfortable than Atletico Tucuman, and are playing better soccer, so Atletico Tucuman will have reasons to get angry and start kicking.

Atletico Tucuman got more cards than their opponents in 7 of L/10 matches, and in 5 of L/6

Lanus saw their opponents getting the most cards in each of L/4 matches, which coincides with the period where they secured the playoffs and were focusing more on the Copa Sudamericana.

The two teams last met in May 3rd, where Atletico Tucuman won by 1-0 at home and got 6 cards to Lanus' just 1. I think Atletico Tucuman get the most cards here, so we ride.

Take 2% on Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards Asian Line (-114 B365), line good to -125