Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: Kosovo to Qualify (+210)

Kosovo vs Turkey
World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Kosovo to Qualify
Odds at Time of Release: +210
Line Parameter: Line good to +190

Kosovo are +210 to qualify, Turkey are -265 and I find no value there. In fact, I might take a piece of Kosovo to qualify at +206. AS for regulation, Kosovo are +315 underdogs at home, the Draw is at +260 and Turkey are -115 favourites on the road, with the Spread at 0.5 and the Total at 2.5.

Kosovo are underestimated by the books and let me tell ya, this is a very dangerous team, they have pretty decent units and cohesion as a team. This will not be an easy match for Turkey, unless there's an early red card for Kosovo or some game-changing event like that.

Kosovo are riding on a 6-match unbeaten streak (W4 D2 L0) and have only lost to Switzerland and Romania in L/15 competitive matches (W10 D2 L3), with 2 of those 3 losses coming on the road.

Turkey had a seemingly easy night vs Romania, won by a slim 1-0, didn't open up and didn't risk too much, they recorded just 2 shots on target, and allowed just 6 shots with zero on target. I've been saying this for quite a while, Turkey's defense is a double-edged sword, they can either have the perfect game and easily keep a clean sheet, or fall apart entirely, with no in-between.

Kosovo is a team that I personally can't get right. And I sure as hell can't get them right lately, because this coach that took over 20 matches ago, has used EIGHT different formations, so it's really anybody's guess as to which one he will pick for this game. I'm not going to speculate, but it's really hard to cap a team that doesn't have some baseline.

For what it's worth, Kosovo are on the brink of their first ever World Cup since being recognized as a nation and since their national team played their first competitive match in 2017. There's a certain pride and motivation for teams in such a position, they are playing at home and I wouldn't be surprised if Kosovo were 5th first-timers in the 2026 World Cup after Cape Verde, Curacao, Uzbekistan and Jordan.

+210 on Kosovo to qualify, but by the same token it's hard to go against this Turkey. Proceed with caution, I'm just getting a big number for another reason, because 3 of 4 Qualifiers have the AWAY side as HUGE favourites, and I think that at least one of those teams will stumble. Maybe it's Turkey.

The Play is Kosovo to Qualify (+210), line good to +190

THE PLAY: Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra Time (+440)

Iraq vs Bolivia
World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 11pm ET

Play: Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra Time
Odds at Time of Release: +440 FanDuel
Line Parameter: Line good to +250, if line not available, take Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer up to +250

Pretty balanced odds here, Iraq are -117 to Qualify, Bolivia are -107, as for regulation, Iraq are +150 favourites, the Draw at +220 and Bolivia +190 underdogs here, with the Spread at PK, or 0.25, depending where you look, and the total at 2.25 goals.

Iraq will be looking to make their second World Cup in their history, and for the first time since 1986, while Bolivia will be looking to return to the World Cup after 1994, and for the 4th time. So both teams are more than hungry for a ticket here.

This match is played in Mexico, so no home advantage for either side, maybe a bit for Bolivia, who are more likely to have fans there instead of Iraqis, with all that's going on in the Middle East. In fact, the team had to take a private jet out of Iraq, and the situation was up in the air until a few days ago.

Skipping sides and totals, this is a very tough game for me to pick a side or a total. Going with a player prop here, this is a game that I can't read too well, but I saw a pretty big price (and a bookie mistake) and the stats are solid.

Bolivia's Miguelito (or Miguel Terceros) scored in their last match vs Suriname, and he was by far their best scorer in the South American Qualifiers, with 7 goals in 13 matches, and actually finished 2nd in the scoring table behind only Lionel Messi.

Now here's the weird part on FanDuel. He is +410 to score anytime, which means that this bet stands for 90 minutes only. But he is +440 to score anytime INCLUDING EXTRA TIME, a price better by 30 cents and we also get 30 more minutes of extra time. Not sure what's going on with the odds there, but we ride.

Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra time is +440 at FanDuel. Can't find it? Pivot to Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer (+410 FD), I'd bet this to +250

The Play is Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra Time (+440 FanDuel), line good to +250. If line not available, take Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer up to +250

THE PLAY: REGULATION

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy
World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Goal Scored - Between 76th minute and Full Time
Odds at Time of Release: +125 DraftKings
Line Parameter: Line good to +110

This is the last step before the World Cup, and Italy are looking to avoid another humiliation, as they were absent from the last two editions and are really eager to return. However, this is not an easy match, as they are playing away at Bosnia & Herzegovina here, and it's going to be a long night in Zenica.

Italy are HUGE -495 favourites to qualify, Bosnia & Herzegovina are +360 to qualify. As for regulation, Italy are -190 favourites on the road, the Draw is at +280 and Bosnia & Herzegovina are +610 underdogs at home, with the Spread at 1 and the Total at 2.25 goals.

Late Goals (past the 76th minute) in 5 of Bosnia & Herzegovina's L/6 competitive matches

Late Goals in each of Italy's L/7 competitive matches, all under coach Gattuso

If either team is leading towards the end of the match, the other team will surely open up in search of an equalizer, and this is a great recipe for late goals. And this is good value, since it also includes the stoppage time, which could be 5-10-15 minutes of extra playing time.

Find this Prop at DraftKings, under the Match Props tab, scroll down to find "Goal Scored in Interval" and pick "Goal Scored - Between 76th minute and Full Time" at +125

The Play is "Goal Scored - Between 76th minute and Full Time" (+125 DraftKings), line good to +110

THE PLAY: REGULATION Both Teams to Score (-105)

Sweden vs Poland
World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Both Teams to Score
Odds at Time of Release: -105
Line Parameter: Line good to -115

Sweden are -195 to Qualify, Poland are +156 to qualify. In regulation, Sweden are -105 favourites at home, the Draw is at +240 and Poland are +285 underdogs, with the Spread at 0.5 and the Total at 2.25

Sweden managed to bounce back to winning ways after a pretty bad qualifying round, they beat Ukraine by 3-1 on the road and are now playing this huge match at home. Their defense is struggling, keeping zero clean sheets in L/7, and their offense didn't score in 3 of 7, but since they changed their coach, they have scored in all 3 and are 3-0 to the Both Teams to Score. You might remember Mr Graham Potter from his short (and unsuccessful) stint at Chelsea, or further back when he coached a very potent Brighton side for many years. His teams usually create a ton of xG but are leaky at the back, so I do expect them to score against Poland here, but they might need to score twice in order to win this.

Poland are playing pretty decent soccer since they changed their coach, as he resolved some internal issues that have come up between star striker Lewandowski and the previous coach. Since then, Poland are 5-1 to the Both Teams to Score, with the only exception of a match against lowly Lithuania. Very much potential up front, but a defense that concedes goals against pretty much everyone, they even conceded two goals vs lowly Malta on the road.

These two last met in the exact same stage of the qualifiers of the previous World Cup, where Poland won by 2-0 at home and booked their ticket to Qatar. So the revenge game narrative is in effect here as well. This is a strange match, but I do think that Both Teams to Score is the play here.

The Play is Both Teams to Score (-105), line good to -115