Andrew McInnis
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RED HOT 18-7 (72%) HOCKEY RUN +23 Units
7-1 BEST BET (4% and 5%) MLB RUN
5-0 MLB SIDES RUN (DON'T MISS OUT)
Entering MLB season on 80% Money Line Run $$
#1 OLYMPIC IN HOCKEY
8-3 College Hoops SIDE RUN (RED HOT)
Last updated Feb 26, 8:26 AM EST
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Free Picks
THE PLAY: Total Over 5.5 (-131)
Flyers/Rangers OVER 5.5 - SHOP FOR 5.5 BEST PRICE YOU CAN.
As the NHL returns from the Olympic break, this is one of those early-slate spots where structure typically lags behind offense. Long layoffs disrupt defensive timing far more than scoring touch, and the first few days back consistently produce high-variance games.
Even though yesterday’s return slate featured several Unders, that doesn’t change the underlying theory. One night of results doesn’t erase the reality that these early post-break environments tend to produce volatility — especially when totals are posted at 5.5. Low numbers like this leave very little margin for defensive mistakes, and these games are rarely clean.
That’s exactly why 5.5 stands out here.
Oddsmakers often hang standard totals before fully adjusting for the chaos that comes with extended breaks — sloppy puck management, neutral zone turnovers, and inconsistent goaltending. This matchup has all of it.
The Rangers entered the break in poor defensive form. Over their last 10 games, they were allowing 30.0 shots against per game and 19.3 scoring chances against per game — numbers that point to structural issues, not just bad bounces. Madison Square Garden hasn’t been a defensive fortress either, with New York consistently giving up quality looks off the rush and struggling to clear the net front.
On the other side, Samuel Ersson’s road splits are a major concern. Over his last 180 minutes away from home, he owns a .839 save percentage. His rebound control has been inconsistent, and when he faces sustained pressure in hostile buildings, games tend to open up quickly. Against a Rangers offense with elite finishing talent, that volatility matters.
Neither of these teams has shown the ability to consistently control play, which sets up for a transition-heavy, back-and-forth game. Add in the likelihood of tighter whistles early after a long break and more special teams opportunities, and this projects as a game where mistakes get punished.
This isn’t a blind Over. It’s a situational edge combined with two defensive profiles trending the wrong direction.
With 5.5 on the board, the value is on the Over before the market adjusts upward in these early post-break spots.
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Consultant Bio
Andrew joined SportsMemo as a sports handicapper, and a few short years later, he found a new home here at WagerTalk. His experience in the sports world, a sports journalism background and his ability to break down games, read lines, and team trends all set Andrew up to be a successful sports bettor.
McInnis is well known for his 15-0 NHL run in 2021, and his 8-0 start to the CFL season in 2019. Being north of the border, Andrew specializes in the NHL and CFL, along with handicapping the MLB, UFC and NFL.
Covering local amateur pro hockey teams and college events, doing interviews, videography work and statistics helped Andrew understand the numbers that go into sports that not many people get to see. Andrew spends countless hours reading media reports, player scouting reports and team previews on each sport he handicaps. He is very strict with familiarizing himself the performance both long term and short term.
Over the years, Andrew has been featured on SportsbookReview.com, Halifax's NEWS 95.7, Sirius XM Channel 159 Sports Grid Radio, Bet MGM Tonight, and VSIN Sports Network. Being north of the border, Andrew feels he has the most significant advantage in the CFL and NHL as he has numerous outlets and connections to hear the breaking news and team information.
Andrew is always available for his clients and encourages anyone with questions to reach out on twitter @McInnisPicks.
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