STOP - THE 5% CFB TOTAL BET / 80% 5% TOTALS RUN & 68% IN 2 YEARS OF CFB TOTALS

THE PLAY: Anaheim Ducks -104

Five straight. That's how many times in a row the Ducks have beaten Boston, including a 7-5 win in Boston and a 4-3 win in this building last season. Anaheim owns this matchup, and tonight they're basically a pick'em at home. I'm taking the Ducks on the moneyline.

The bottom line here is the Ducks have the better power play, the Bruins can't stay out of the box, and I'm selling Boston at the highest point of their season.

Start with special teams, because that's where this game gets decided. Anaheim's power play is 7-for-21 this season, a 33% clip that's among the best in hockey. Boston's penalty kill sits at 76%, and they've already given up six power-play goals. They've taken 96 penalty minutes in seven games and handed their opponents 18 power plays. Give this Ducks unit four or five chances tonight and they will make you pay.

Now the Bruins. Yes, they've won three straight and scored 17 goals doing it. Look at who they beat: Utah, Philly and San Jose. That's a nice little run, and the market has noticed. Boston is now the favourite on the road in a building where it hasn't won against this team in years. They're on the third stop of a four-game road trip, with a game in L.A. tomorrow night. Late on a road trip, with another game the next night, is exactly when teams get caught.

The Ducks are coming off a 4-2 loss to a Calgary team that hadn't won a game, and they blew a 2-1 lead to do it. Teams with this much skill don't lose to bad teams twice in a row, especially at home. Leo Carlsson has 9 points in six games, and Granlund has a point in every game this year. Expect a response.

The line agrees. Anaheim opened at even money and is now -103 to -105. That's a small move, but it's toward the Ducks.

I see a 4-3 Ducks game, with the power play making the difference.

The Play: Ducks ML -103