Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: Draw +455

Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart
Bundesliga, Sunday, 11:30am ET

Play: Draw
Odds at Time of Release: +440
Line Parameter: Line good to +375

Bayern Munich need one point in 5 remaining matches to mathematically win the Bundesliga title, so not exactly burning for a win vs Stuttgart here. It's Stuttgart who would love some points, as they are sitting 4th with 56 points, just 3 points behind Leipzig (whom they will overtake if they win on Sunday), but also 2 points above Hoffenheim and 4 points above Leverkusen, so definitely interested in points here.

Bayern Munich will almost certainly rotate here, as they have a Cup match coming up mid-week, and so do Stuttgart. Bayern are projected to start Kim and Ito at the center back positions, a flimsy duo that is usually prone to mistakes (especially Kim).

I wouldn't be surprised if these two split the points, and the Draw pays a whopping +425.

On the other hand, Stuttgart also have a Cup match coming up, and they are also missing their most productive striker, Undav is suspended, but we already took some +500s on Sunday, we will risk with one more on the Draw here.

This looks like a 2-2 / 3-3 if you ask me, Bayern have been hovering around a high-scoring draw for quite some time now. They scored a late goal vs Real Madrid mid-week, scored a VERY late goal against Freiburg two weeks ago to win by 3-2, also scored a late goal to beat Dortmund by 3-2 and their 3-2 win vs Frankfurt at home could have been a 3-3 if Frankfurt didn't hit the post at the second half to tie the game.

All 4 of Stuttgart's away Draws this season came either by 2-2 (1 time) or 3-3 (3 times)

Bayern Munich don't even need to win here in order to win the title, a Draw would suffice, I don't see them losing either.

Bayern's only home Draw in the season came by 2-2, and 3 of their 4 draws regardless of venue ended at 2-2. Also 2 of L/4 H2H in this venue finished at 2-2.

Then there's the coach connection, with Stuttgart's Sebastian Hoeness actually being the nephew of Bayern Munich's Uli Hoeness, who has served Bayern as a board member, president, chairman, basically all the board positions. Plus, Sebastian Hoeness has previosuly worked with Bayern's youth teams.

So I wouldn't be surprised if this match ended in a Draw that left Bayern with the title and Stuttgart with good chances to make the Champions League next season and thus confirming the "nephew coach - uncle Bayern board member" theory.

It must be said that this is still Bayern, and they can be lethal at home, and they also blasted Stuttgart by 5-0 on the road in the reverse fixture. But soccer betting is all about the odds, and I find value in fading Bayern today with limited risk.

I was going to do 2-3% on Stuttgart +1 but I am splitting those units into smaller bets, see if my theory is correct. Needless to say, if Bayern win, we drop -2.75% but these are the smallest bets us on Sunday.

Tactic:

1% Draw (+440)
1% Stuttgart Draw no Bet (+430)
0.5% 2-2 Correct Score (+1200)
0.25% 3-3 Correct Score (+2700)

Take 1% on the Draw (+440), line good to +375