Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Racing Club +0.25 (-127)

Racing Club vs Flamengo
Copa Libertadores, Wednesday, 8:30pm ET

Play: Racing Club +0.25
Odds at Time of Release: -127
Line Parameter: Line good to -140, otherwise take Racing Club PK

Second leg of the Copa Libertadores semi-finals and now Racing Club are hosting Flamengo after losing the first leg in Brazil by 1-0. Flamengo will proceed to the final with a win or a draw, Racing Club only need a win to have a fighting chance. A win by a single goal will send this to extra time, a win by 2 goals or more would see Racing Club to the final.

Racing Club won the Copa Sudamericana last season and have been really good as hosts against Brazilian teams, winning each of L/6 home matches against teams from Brazil, and not losing in 8 (W7 D1 L0). On the other hand, Flamengo's record in L/9 trips to Argentina is W3 D5 L1. They might have never lost to Racing Club over the years (W2 D3 L0), but both wins came in Brazil. Both previous H2H in Argentina were Draws (1-1).

This time around, Flamengo can progress with a win or even a Draw, and with Racing Club being one of the best home sides in Argentina, it's weird to see Flamengo as the favourites here, they are +145 on the road, the Draw is at +225 and Racing Club are +205 underdogs at home. I disagree with these odds. Especially since Flamengo are missing key players, mainly star striker Pedro, Everton who is a good player off the bench, while defender Leo Ortiz was questionable, he is in the roster but he might not start.

Then there's fatigue, with Racing Club's match on the weekend being postponed due to the elections in Argentina, while at the same time Flamengo were losing to Fortaleza in a match where they used a lot of starters as they are chasing the title. In situations like this, we tend to go with the home side.

Take 3% on Racing Club +0.25 (-127), line good to -140, otherwise take Racing Club PK

THE PLAY: REGULATION Strasbourg -130

Strasbourg vs Auxerre
Ligue 1, Wednesday, 4:05pm ET

Play: Strasbourg ML
Odds at Time of Release: -130
Line Parameter: Line good to -140

Strasbourg are coming off a tough loss to Lyon by 2-1 on the road, their third in the season and all 3 came vs goot French teams that play in Europe (Lyon, Marseille, Monaco), and all 3 came with last minute goals in the stoppage time. Now sitting on a W5 D1 L3 record, which is still pretty good for a team like Strasbourg who will make a push for a top-6 finish again this season.

They have a ton of quality in the squad and really strong at home so far (W3 L1), losing only to the aforementioned Marseille, in a match where they actually took the lead and were winning for 78 minutes. They easily beat Angers, Nantes and Le Havre, teams with similar profiles to Auxerre.

Auxerre are sitting 2nd to last with 7 points (W2 D1 L6), scoring just 7 goals and conceding 13, their defense is not that bad but their offense is. Bad on the road as well (W0 D1 L3), losing to PSG, Nantes and Nice and somehow forcing a 2-2 draw at Rennes, who are just not that good anymore.

Strasbourg with a +1.43 xG difference/game at home and Auxerre with a -0.43 xG difference/game on the road. There's a clear gap in quality between the two and Strasbourg have had no problems in beating teams from the bottom half of the league table, plus they beat Auxerre in both H2H last season. Their next matches are vs Rennes, Lille and Lens, teams that are also fighting for a top-6 finish, so this is the easiest match Strasbourg got over the next month or so. They need to win this.

Take 3% on Strasbourg ML (-130), line good to -140