Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Atletico Madrid +1.0 (-122)

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid
Champions League, Tuesday, 3pm ET

Play: Atletico Madrid +1
Odds at Time of Release: -122
Line Parameter: Line good to -135

Arsenal are -170 favourites at home, the Draw is at +320 and Atletico Madrid are +490 underdogs on the road, with the Spread set at 1 and the Total set at 2.5 Goals. Right off the bat, these odds don't really do Atletico Madrid any justice so I'm kinda looking to the away side here.

Arsenal have played 11 matches in all competitions with a W8 D1 L1 record, losing to Liverpool and drawing against Manchester City, so it's kinda understandable. Out of those 8 wins, 6 came by 2 goals or more, but a wuick look as to who they beat by 2+ goals will tell us that those were not good teams, and going on a chronological order here, West Ham, Olympiakos in the UCL, Port Vale in the EFL Cup, Bilbao in the UCL (Bilbao were absolutely teethless up front in that match), Nottingham (who have aaaaall sorts of problems so far and just sacked their 2nd coach of the season) and newly promoted side of Leeds. These are not good teams and Arsenal did what they should, beat them comfortably. Arsenal are also on a 6-1 run to the Under 2.5 Goals, and 8-3 in the season.

Now Atletico Madrid are a different beast.

Atletico Madrid have also played 11 matches in all competitions with a W5 D4 L2 record, losing only to Liverpool in the UCL (by a single goal as Liverpool scored the winner at the stoppage time) and to Espanyol in Match Day 1 (where there was some rust from the off-season and they still conceded two late goals). Other than that, Atletico Madrid dropped 5 goals apiece to Real Madrid and Frankfurt in the UCL, albeit both wins came at home. Their defense is not that good with just 2 clean sheets in 11 matches, and both at home, while 6-5 to the Under 2.5 Goals.

When I saw the match-up, I immediately looked for odds on the Under 2.5 Goals, because both coaches have a defensive mentality, especially when they play against teams of similar strength.

Arsenal have won both matches so far, with clean sheets, so another win would keep them at the top spots. Atletico Madrid have a 5-1 win vs Frankfurt and a 3-2 loss vs Liverpool, two high-scoring matches but they know that a loss here would complicate things, so I think they will deploy a defensive plan in an attempt to keep the score at a minimum.

Best Bet is Atletico Madrid +1 (-122), I think the odds are misplaced a little bit here, +490 on Atletico Madrid is kind of a gift but the hand doesn't easily go against Arsenal. But I think that Atletico Madrid can stay competitive here and avoid a big loss.

Take 3% on Atletico Madrid +1 (-122), line good to -135

THE PLAY: REGULATION Over 5.5 Cards (-122)

Santos vs Vitoria
Brazil, Monday, 8:30pm ET

Play: Over 5.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -122
Line Parameter: Line good to -135

SITUATION:

Big relegation battle in the Brazilian Serie A on Monday, when Santos will host Vitoria. Santos are sitting at the 16th spot with 31 points, just 3 points above Vitoria who are sitting below the relegation zone. Santos can move further away from the relegation zone with a win or a draw, and even though a loss would also keep them above Vitoria (number of wins is the first tiebreaker), it would seriously complicate things as Santos have to play against Palmeiras (twice), Botafogo and Flamengo in their next 6 matches, so they absolutely need all the points they can get. Vitoria are coming off a huge win in the local derby vs Bahia and they too have a pretty tough schedule coming up, and it's mainly Santos they're chasing, so they will go full force here.

TEAM CARD STATS:

CARDS FOR: Santos average 2.92 cards/match regardless of venue and 3.00 cards/home match. 
CARDS AGAINST: Santos average 3.07 cards against/ home match, and 3.23 cards against/home match

CARDS FOR: Vitoria average 3.35 cards/match (#1 in Serie A), and 3.42 cards/away match
CARDS AGAINST: Vitoria average 2.00 cards against/match and 1.71 cards against/away match

H2H:

Cards in H2H: 4/7/4/6/3/4/3/3/6/4

REFEREE STATS:

Referee is Rafel Rodrigo Klein, here are his stats:

2025: Average of 4.87 cards/match and average of 4.62 cards/match in this league
2024: Average of 6.67 cards/match and average of 6.95 cards/match in this league
2023: Average of 7.57 cards/match and average of 6.39 cards/match in this league

BOTTOMLINE:

HUGE relegation battle which always leads to a lot of cards, Santos have very good card numbers, Vitoria get a LOT of cards as well (but not many cards against), H2H is not great and referee is pretty decent for cards, with the line set at 5.5. It's a bit risky but Vitoria have always played very aggressively in previous relegation battles so there is a very good chance we see another card-fest here.

Take 2% on the Over 5.5 Cards (-122 FD), line good to -135

THE PLAY: REGULATION Over 5 Cards Asian Line (-110)

Tigre vs Barracas Central
Argentina, Monday, 6pm ET

Play: Over 5 Cards Asian Line
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

SITUATION:

Both Barracas Central and Tigre are sitting at 17 points in a quintuple tie with 3 other teams, 2 of which are sitting inside the playoffs. Both these two are sitting outside, so this is a huge battle for the playoffs. Moreover, these two are also sitting in the last two spots (#8 and #9) in the cumulative rankings that decide who takes the Copa Libertadores/Sudamericana tickets for next season, with at least three other teams right behind them. This match is hugely important for both teams, who are not only fighting for a place in the playoffs, but also for a ticket to next season's Copa Sudamericana (which means more money and more exposure for the club). Good situation for cards here.

TEAM CARD STATS:

Cards in Tigre's matches: 5/7/7/6/5/15/8/6/7/5/10/9/6/5/7
Cards in Tigre's home matches: 7/6/5/6/5/6

At least 5 cards in all 15 matches this season, and at least 5 cards in all 6 home matches

Cards in Barracas Central's matches: 7/5/9/6/8/1/4/4/4/7/6/
Cards in Barracas Central's away matches: 7/6/8/4/4/6

At least 5 cards in 7 of 11 matches this season (and in each of L/5), at least 5 cards in 4 of 6 away matches.

H2H:

Cards in H2H: 5/2/2/6/5/5

At least 5 cards in 4 of 6.

REFEREE:

Referee is Jorge Balino, here are his stats:

2025: Average of 4.80 cards/match, and 4.27 cards/match in this league
2024: Average of 4.17 cards/match, and 3.95 cards/match in this league
2023: Average of 4.41 cards/match, and 4.36 cards/match in this league

BOTTOMLINE:

To sum up, we got two teams that are locked in a crucial battle for the playoffs but also for the Copa Sudamericana tickets for next season, they each got decent individual card stats, decent card stats in H2H but a referee that is not that good for cards. Even so, we will take a chance with a 2% bet on the Over 5 Cards Asian Line as the stakes are huge for both teams and that often leads to fouls (and cards).

Take 2% on the Over 5 Cards Asian Line (-110 B365), line good to -120