Teddy Covers

THE PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers Total Over 7.5 (-105) T Gordon (RHP) Must Start

Take LA Dodgers Team Total OVER (list Gordon for the Rockies)

Since August 1st, the Rockies have allowed an AVERAGE of more than nine runs per game at home. The Dodgers pounded out 11 runs against this team last night, primed for similar success tonight against Tanner Gordon and his career 8.30 ERA in 16 previous big league starts.  The Rockies bullpen is a gas can behind Gordon; the hitting conditions ideal for the highest scoring team in baseball playing in the best hitters park in MLB.  Expect LA to light up the scoreboard once again this evening.

THE PLAY: 3% Take the Washington Commanders UNDER 9.5 Wins

3% Take the Washington Commanders UNDER 9.5 Wins (+105 at DraftKings, +100 at Westgate Superbook and BetMGM, -110/-115 widely available)

Washington was a breakout team in 2024 under first year head coach Dan Quinn and rookie QB Jaylen Daniels. They came on like a freight train down the stretch, winning their last five regular season games and a pair of playoff games before losing to Philly in the NFC Championship Game.  Many are expecting a repeat performance in 2025. I am not.

Let me start with these two factors.  First, the Commanders faced these quarterbacks down the stretch last year, from Week 12 on: Cooper Rush, Will Levis, Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, rookie Micheal Penix and Trey Lance.  The ONLY one of those QB’s expected to start in 2025 is Penix.  Based on MY power ratings for their opponent the week the game was played, Washington faced the single EASIEST schedule in the entire NFL last year.  That’s not likely to repeat.

Second, the Commanders went 20-23 on fourth downs last year, an 87% conversion rate on the most important plays in the game.  That’s ‘off the charts’ good.  Two teams this century have had higher conversion rates (the 2016 Cowboys and 2018 Chargers), but neither of those squads had more than ten attempts, full season. 24% of their points came on drives that included a successful fourth down conversion, Top 5 this century.  I expect significant regression.

Just from ‘opposing QB injuries luck’ and ‘fourth down conversion luck’, we can expect Washington to come back to earth in 2025.  I should note some schedule disadvantages here.  The Commanders face an NFL high three teams off a bye, and they play two ‘short week’ road games, leaving them with a ‘Bottom Five’ rest disadvantage. For some teams that might not matter quite so much.  But it’s also worth noting that the Commanders enter the season as the single OLDEST team in the NFL, and it’s not even close.

The Ron Rivera era didn’t leave much quality roster depth, to put it mildly.  Last year, the Commanders filled the gaps with veterans on short term deals; guys like Bobby Wagner, Dante Fowler, Zack Ertz and Andrew Wylie; all on the wrong side of 30.  This offseason, they brought in Laremy Tunsil, Jonathan Jones, Deebo Samuel and Will Harris, all approaching or over 30 years old.  I’m expecting injuries and attrition. 

The Commanders went from 4-13 in 2023 to 12-5 last year.  Modern NFL history tells us that teams that make a huge leap one year are primed to come back to earth the following season.  We can confidently expect that regression from Dan Quinn’s squad in 2025.  Take the Commanders Season Wins UNDER.

THE PLAY: Las Vegas Raiders +3.0 (-110)

3% Take Las Vegas (#465)

The Patriots went 4-13 last year, with one of those four wins coming in Week 18 against a Bills team resting starters.  They won a grand total of ONE game ‘comfortably’ all year, by more than a single score.  Yes, New England brought in a new coach and went on a spending spree in free agency.  But make no mistake about it – the Pats are NOT a team I’m comfortable laying points with in Week 1; a game they’ll need to win by more than a field goal to cash winning bets.  

It’s surely worth noting that New England wasn’t favored in ANY games last year and went 1-4 SU as a favorite in 2023, not a team we can trust to win by margin.  New head coach Mike Vrabel, dating back to his tenure with the Titans?  1-4 SU in his last five tries as chalk!  Both the Pats and Vrabel have consistently been LOSING games like this in SU fashion…..

Meanwhile, the Raiders upgraded every bit as much as New England did this past offseason – not just the coach and the quarterback.  That said, new QB Geno Smith went 7-1 SU on the highway as the starting quarterback for Seattle last year, including a hard fought OT win right here in Foxboro.  And Pete Carroll is 4-1 SU in his last five Week 1’s, with only two losses by more than a field goal in his last 11 Week 1 tries; a coach who I trust to have his team ready.  Live dog here!  Take the Raiders.

Line Parameter: 3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower

THE PLAY: Total Over 49.5 (-110)

Take Wyoming – Akron OVER (#147-148)

Wyoming wants to play bully ball against lesser squads like the Zips. The Cowboys are strong in the trenches and loaded with veterans on offense.  QB Kaden Anderson has his top three receiving targets back.  Akron has an undersized front seven; Wyoming is likely to be in good ‘down and distance’ situations all game, creating big play opportunities throwing over the top after Akron commits to stopping the run. But Joe Moorhead is an elite offensive mind; Wyoming has a completely rebuilt secondary playing on the road thousands of miles from home in Week 1.  The Zips also have a QB in Ben Finley returning for his second season in this offense, after playing at NC State and Cal earlier in his career.  I’m expecting BOTH squads to have some offensive success here, putting TD’s on the board, not FG’s.  Take the OVER.