Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Arizona Diamondbacks -117 T Bibee (RHP), E Rodriguez (LHP) Must Start

4% Arizona (9:40 ET): Over the course of the second half of the season, I don’t think that there’s been a luckier starting pitcher - in terms of wins and losses - than Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee. Here’s a guy that has allowed four or more runs in five consecutive starts and six of the last seven. He has a 6.00 ERA since July 2nd! What has happened is the Guardians have strangely scored a total of 56 runs in Bibee’s last seven starts (or an average of eight per game). That is pretty ridiculous considering the Guards are a team that ranks bottom five in all of baseball in runs per game over the course of the season. The results are simply not sustainable if Bibee continues to pitch this way. 

And I think it is quite likely Bibee’s struggles will continue Tuesday against an Arizona team that is top six in baseball in runs per game. Yes, Cleveland did take last night’s series opener by a score of 3-1. However, they were outhit. The D’backs went 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position, which was the key to the game. Overall, I am just not a believer in this Guardians team, which has a -32 differential for the season. Their recent “surge” is somewhat confounding when you consider they were “sellers” at the trade deadline and also lost closer Emmanuel Clase to a suspension. 

Another key component of the handicap here is that tonight’s starter for the D’backs is Eduardo Rodriguez. He is 7-0 lifetime vs. Cleveland (in nine starts) with a 2.51 ERA. Now, the majority of those nine starts were when Rodriguez was pitching in the American League (he came to Arizona last season). However, Rodriguez is a lefty and Cleveland has struggled against southpaws, in general, this season (79 wRC+ - that’s 24th in MLB). Also, Rodriguez has pitched much better than some of the traditional stats would indicate. His xERA is a full run lower than his actual ERA. Last time out was arguably Rodriguez’s best start of the season as he went a season-high seven innings and allowed just one run on six hits (6-0 KW ratio). Yes, that was against the Rockies, but it was also at Coors Field. The Rockies are a better offensive team at home than Cleveland is overall. Throw in the fact Bibee can’t keep getting away with pitching so poorly, and I see Arizona winning this game. 4% Arizona (Play to -155)