Rob Veno

THE PLAY: Julius Randle (Min) Points + Rebounds Over 22.5 (-125)

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(549) Minnesota Timberwolves at (550) Oklahoma City Thunder   (Game Analysis Below)   

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: Full Game Player Prop

Play: Julius Randle (Min) Points + Rebounds Over 22.5 (-125) 

Date/Time: May 28, 2025 8:30 PM 

Line Provider: DraftKings

Minnesota @ Oklahoma City

Statistical performances by Julius Randle have been on their own zig-zag angle

Game #1 in OKC: 28 points & 8 rebounds for a P+R total of 36

Game #2 in OKC 6 points & 5 rebounds for a P+R total of 11

Game #3 in Minnesota was a bounce back effort 24 & 4 for a total of 28 AND THEN…

Game #4 in Minnesota 5 & 7 for a total of 12

Randle currently is the true definition of Playoff zig-zag

Quick look at how tonight sets up to have the zig-zag continue

Randle has averaged 26 P&R this season and he is 10-4 “over” this number being offered in Game #5

He’s likely very motivated in a “back to the wall” 3-1 series deficit game

Subpar performance last game is going somewhat under the radar because 90% of the national narrative is about how they feel Anthony Edwards underperformed Monday night

That probably places a tax on Edwards numbers and slight softens Randle’s which provides opportunity (remember Randle averages 26 and is 10-4 “over’ this price tag)

The old axiom “role players play better at home in the post-season…This one is on the road AND…

Not sure the Timberwolves reserves can play at the same level as the L2 in Target Center (107 points / 60.7% from the floor & 63.3% from 3) 

Those 4 key reserves (Reid, DiVincenzo, Alexander-Waker & Shannon Jr.) only had 58 points / 30.6% shooting including 23.3% from distance in the pair of games here in Oklahoma City 

Minnesota probably needs the starters and in particular their stars to carry the load here

Final Look

Figure Randle to be more assertive and in an aggressive mindset looking to atone for previous game 

He had averages of 13 FGA’s (4.7 3’s) / 4 FT’s & 6 rebounds per game in the first 3 of this series

Those numbers allow for 41 potential points + rebounds 

High end of the zig-zag is activated so will step in and play Randle to get to those first three game averages and convert on enough to generate 23+ P&R

Play: Julius Randle Points + Rebounds OVER 22.5