Nick Borrman

THE PLAY: Draw (+205)

Italy Serie A

(201237) Juventus at (201238) AS Roma

Roma has this match sandwiched in between two huge Europa League matchups against Leverkusen in the semifinals of that competition.  This match certainly will take a back seat to those two, however, they currently sit 5th in Serie A in the final Champions League qualification spot, but only two points ahead of Atalanta.

Additionally, they are only four points ahead of Lazio.  A loss here vs Juventus could very likely see them fall out of the Top-5 as Atalanta, though they too have a Europa semifinal matchup, face the worst team in the league, and an already relegated, Salernitana, which any right-minded person would expect them to grab all three points.

Meanwhile Juventus has been a mess, incapable of beating quality teams over the last three months, losing to Inter, Napoli and Lazio, while drawing with Atalanta and Milan.  They have now drawn three straight matches against Torino, Cagliari and Milan.

Juventus’ woes have come on the offensive side of the ball as they have been blanked four times over their last seven matches.  They aren’t losing games because of their defense.  In fact, they have conceded only three goals over their last seven matches while keeping five clean sheets, yet they have just two wins to show for it.

Roma too had been playing great defensively but that has slipped a bit in recent games, mainly because of juggling between Serie A and the Europa League, in my opinion.  That is my hesitation on taking the Under here, otherwise I do think a low-scoring match is likely in the cards as it has been in five of the last six meetings all finishing Under the total.

But I trust Roma to find a way to do just enough to grab a result here.  They don’t lose at home very often, just three times this season, and with so much on the line in the table, I expect a lot of fight from them.

Bottom line, I can’t separate these teams by much on the field, I would give the current form and confidence boost to Roma, but the schedule favors Juventus.  Call it a wash.

TAKE DRAW

Line Parameter: Play good down to +180