Italy Serie A

(201397) Salernitana at (201398) Frosinone

While not official, it’s too little, too late for Salernitana as they sit 13 points back of safety with only five matches to go.  Anything but a win would officially relegate Salernitana, so I expect a full-fledged effort to try and win this match.  But, let’s be honest, for them to win the match, that will require goals as this defense, which ranks dead last in the league, cannot stop anyone including Frosinone.

Salernitana did keep two clean sheets this season, which both happened to come on the road, a 1-0 win at Verona, one of just two wins this season, and a 0-0 draw at Torino.  Aside from that, they conceded at least two goals in 25 of 33 matches this season and have allowed 2.05 xG per match which rises to 2.29 away from home.  The question isn’t will Frosinone score, it’s how many?

Frosinone has just one win over their last 21 matches but control their destiny at the bottom thanks to a great run to start the season, especially at home where they had just one loss in their first eight matches.  A win here though, which oddsmakers certainly expect, will be a huge boost in their battle against relegation.  They have been good at finding the net at home, scoring in all but three matches which came against three Top-5 defenses, Bologna, Roma, and Torino.  Obviously much different than this Salernitana side.   

I first looked at taking Frosinone team total over 1.5, but being priced at -200, it was an obvious pass, though it’s a clear indicator of what oddsmakers expect to happen.  The other option was both teams to score + over 2.5 goals but I’m not fully confident in Salernitana and a final score of 3-0 would at least get us a push instead of a loss in that scenario. Regardless, I expect goals in this match, play it however you feel is best, but I’m keeping it simple on Over 3.0.

TAKE OVER 3.0 GOALS

Line Parameter: 4% to -120, 3% to -135