England Premier League

(200017) Chelsea at (200018) Arsenal

I have to question the motivation and effort we see out of Chelsea as the only thing they had left to play for this season, ended over the weekend at the hands of Man City in their FA Cup semifinal loss.  They sit mid-table of the Premier League, too far back to qualify for a European spot for next year.  They literally have nothing to left to play for this season already.

On the flip side of course is Arsenal in the thick of a three-headed title race that looks poised to come down to the final Match Day.  The Gunners were ousted from the Champions League this past week so it’s all focus on the EPL the rest of the way.

However, this is the London Derby and even without anything to play for, Chelsea would love to beat Arsenal and ruin their chances at the EPL title.

That alone keeps me from wanting to back Arsenal, plus this line opened at Arsenal -1.25 but has dropped to -1.0, so clearly some early money is on Chelsea which is another hesitation for me.

The market that has caught my eye is the Corners market and laying -3.0 Corners on Arsenal.  I’m just not sure who will end up covering this spread, but I fully believe we see Arsenal as the aggressor in this match, especially the longer it stays tied or if Chelsea leads at any point.

As a good comparison, Chelsea travelled to Man City and Liverpool in the last 2.5 months.  While they were blown out 1-4 at Liverpool, they did steal a 1-1 draw at City, again, a perfect example of not knowing what to expect with the score.  However, in both of those matches, Chelsea was dominated in Corners to the tune of:  1-8 vs Liverpool and 1-12 vs Man City.  Add in this past weekend’s loss to Man City in the FA Cup which saw the Corner total at 4-8.

Arsenal has been dominant in Corners this season as well averaging 7.6 Corners per home match while allowing just 2.9 and have covered this -3.0 Corner spread in 11 of 16 matches.

Sometimes the goals don’t match the play on the field, So I’ll avoid the handicap this time, but I do believe the play on the field will be dictated by Arsenal which should help them create more corners in this match.

TAKE ARSENAL -3.0 CORNERS

Line Parameter: 2% to -140