MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Advice For 8/26/23

Betting Advice for MLS 8/26/23

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his 8/26 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including DC United vs Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

DC United vs Philadelphia Union | Saturday 8/26 | 7:30pm ET

DC United +140 | Draw +240 | Philadelphia +180
Asian Handicap: DC United -0.25 | Total: 2.5

Anytime I see Philadelphia getting + goals, I immediately gravitate towards it, and I like them to at least earn a draw in this match.

After what you could classify as a slow start for the defending Eastern Conference champions, Philly really started to play well after they were eliminated from the Champions League.

Since their loss to LAFC (again) in the CCL semifinals, Philadelphia has just four losses in 21 matches including the Leagues Cup where they finished 3rd. Their defense has once again been strong as they have held opponents to one goal or fewer in 16 of those 21 matches.

Offensively they have been finding the net often as well, scoring nearly 2.0 per match, a total of 40 in those 21 matches. During that run, they were held scoreless just three times.

DC is not a team that scores many goals. They are scoreless in their last three matches which includes two Leagues Cup games, one of those being a 0-0 draw vs this very same Philadelphia team. Going back a little further, DC has scored just one goal over their last five matches.

All four quality teams they faced in those five matches held them scoreless. NY Red Bulls, Philadelphia, UNAM Pumas and New England.

Finally, this series has been completely one-sided as DC has won just one match over their last 16 meetings. I don’t see #2 happening on Saturday.

Prediction: Philadelphia Union +0.25 -125 DraftKings

Orlando City SC vs St Louis City | Saturday 8/26 | 7:30pm ET

Orlando -105 | Draw +260 | St Louis +240
Asian Handicap: Orlando -0.5 | Total: 2.75

We successfully backed Orlando last weekend on the road at Chicago and this looks like another good spot for the Lions.

What do Chicago and St Louis have in common? They both have gotten some decent results, despite having some ugly and worrisome underlying metrics.

St Louis have a +19 goal differential but xG has them tallied to a -2.2 xG differential. That is a significant overperformance from expected goals and simply put, unsustainable.

Almost all of St Louis’ success this season has come at home but their overperformance is even more exaggerated in St. Louis City where they have scored 35 goals on a total of 20.2 xG.

However, being on the road, you could say they have gotten what they deserved, scoring 14 goals on 12.4 xG. Nine of those goals came in their first three matches, but since, they have scored only six goals in nine matches including one Leagues Cup game.

Orlando has been solid at home. They lost three of their first six at home this season, but since then, they haven’t lost a game at home, a run of nine straight including five wins and four draws.

Overall, Orlando has just three losses in their last 17 matches including the Leagues Cup. xG data backs them up as well with a +0.40 xG differential over their last 13 MLS matches.

Prediction: Orlando City SC Moneyline or -0.5 -110

*ML or Asian Handicap of -0.5 are the same bet. Some books don’t have Asian Handicap, but make sure to shop both to get the best price.

FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC | Saturday 8/26 | 7:30pm ET

FC Cincinnati -135 | Draw +270 | New York City FC +340
Asian Handicap: FC Cincinnati -0.75 | Total: 2.75

FC Cincinnati had a rough week. Their return to MLS action saw them lose 0-3 on the road in Columbus last weekend and they followed that up by being eliminated in the semifinals of the US Open Cup to none other than Lionel Messi and Inter Miami.

FC Cincinnati jumped out to a 2-0 lead in that US Open Cup semifinal, only to see Miami score twice in the second half to tie it, force it to extra time, and eventually PKs, where they won.

However, New York City FC is not Inter Miami (at least not the new version) and if Cincinnati can grab a two-goal lead, that has proven to be almost insurmountable for New York City FC.

Cincinnati is unbeaten at home this season with 11 wins and just one draw with a ridiculous 24-8 goal differential. They have kept six clean sheets and only twice allowed more than one goal.

New York City FC has scored more than one goal just one time over their last 17 matches which came at home vs Toronto in the Leagues Cup, who is the worst team in the league.

Their inability to score has clearly hindered their ability to win matches as they have just two wins over their last 19 matches in all competitions.

If we look at their body of work on the road, New York City FC has just one win in 15 matches including one Leagues Cup match. Similarly, they have scored more than one goal just twice and have been blanked six times.

Everything suggests New York City FC will once again struggle to find the net here.

Prediction: FC Cincinnati ML or -0.5 -135

*ML or Asian Handicap of -0.5 are the same bet. Some books don’t have Asian Handicap, but make sure to shop both to get the best price.