MLS Picks, Predictions and Odds For Saturday May 13

Betting Preview for MLS May 13

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his MLS weekend match predictions and picks around key matches including New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC and Atlanta United vs Charlotte FC. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

D.C. United vs Nashville SC | Saturday, May 13 | 7:30pm ET

DC United +120 | Draw +220 | Nashville +225
Asian Handicap: DC United -0.25 | Total: 2.25

There are very few times where I’m going to pass up taking the better defensive team getting a head start and that’s what we have here as Nashville travel to the Capital to face D.C. United.

Nashville has allowed six goals this year thru 11 matches which easily leads the league. New England is the next closest in the East having conceded nine while LAFC and Houston have both conceded just eight in the West, but on two less games as each has only played nine thus far.

Nashville allows 0.96 xGA per 90 minutes this season which ranks 2nd to only NYRB and is one of just three teams allowing less than 1.0. On the road, the number drops to 0.93 which is the best average in the league away from home.

Nashville has kept six clean sheets already this season and have allowed more than one goal on just one single occurrence this year which happened at home vs NYCFC.

As you would expect, they have a heavy Under record because of that as eight of their 11 matches have finished Under the total.

DC United are not a strong offensive team as they have averaged just 1.07 xG per 90 minutes this season, though that does rise to 1.32 at home.

They have four wins which have all come against teams with negative xG differentials in Toronto, Montreal, Orlando and Charlotte. Against quality opposition, they allowed two goals to Cincinnati, Columbus (twice) and New England, while allowing three goals to NYCFC, losing all five matches.

I think we see Nashville’s defense do what they have been doing all year and limit D.C. to one goal or fewer meaning we only need one goal from the visitors to cash this ticket.

Last year’s Golden Boot winner is coming off a hat trick in his last match, so one flash of brilliance from Hany Mukhtar should be enough here.

Prediction: Nashville SC +0.25 -120

New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC | Saturday, May 13 | 7:30pm ET

NYRB +100 | Draw +230 | NYCFC +270
Asian Handicap: NYRB -0.5 | Total: 2.25

If you have been reading my articles each week, I don’t have even tell you where I’m going in this match, but I’ll repeat it one more time. It’s the Red Bulls. Take the Under. ‘nuff said!

NYRB own the best defense in the league according to xG allowing a paltry 0.79 xGA per 90 minutes which drops to just 0.56 at home. They sit bottom of the table in the East, but they are not a bottom of the table team. I’m telling you now, this is a team to buy as they will make the playoffs before the season is over.

It is simply unheard of to own the best defense in the league and sit rock bottom. The problem is, they can’t find the net two yards in front of them even without a goalie!

The Red Bulls have actually averaged a respectable 1.36 xG per 90 minutes this season but have scored just seven goals from a combined 15.0 xG. Until they start finishing, I will continue to ride the Under in their matches.

New York City, two seasons removed from their MLS Cup win, is not the same team they were, at least offensively.

They were 2nd in the league that year in xG averaging 1.87 per match and owned the best xG differential in the league. Even last year they still averaged 1.80. This year, their offensive creation has dropped to 1.18 though they still have a solid defense allowing just 1.15 xGA.

This derby has been tight as well as five of their six meetings the last two seasons have finished Under the total. Two good defenses vs two mediocre offenses, one of which that can’t convert their chances. 1-0 or 1-1 seems about right here.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -125

Atlanta United vs Charlotte FC | Saturday, May 13 | 7:30pm ET

Atlanta -185 | Draw +330 | Charlotte +425
Asian Handicap: Atlanta -1.0 | Total: 3.0

A quick look at form for both teams might have you thinking how can I get money down on Charlotte for this match.

Atlanta is coming off three straight losses including a US Open Cup match followed by back-to-back road losses at Nashville and at Miami. But at home, they are a much different team and have four wins and a draw thus far in league play.

Charlotte has just one loss over their last five matches in all competitions which includes two Cup wins. It’s also worth noting that all four wins came at home while their lone loss was on the road at DC United where they were blanked in a 3-0 loss.

Atlanta lead Charlotte in every statistical category this season. Goals for, goals allowed, xG and xGA per 90 minutes, both shots for and allowed including on target. Charlotte rank in the bottom five of the league in almost all those categories.

Atlanta’s home record includes four wins and a draw this season with a 11:4 goal differential and an average of 1.58 xG per 90 minutes compared to just 0.92 xGA. Three of five at home have finished with three goals or more while overall, eight of their 11 matches have finished Over 2.5 goals.

Charlotte’s defense has been leaky to say the least allowing a league high 21 goals thus far so naturally they have a high Over record with eight of their 11 matches finishing over the total as well including a perfect 5-0 Over record on the road.

Charlotte has allowed three goals on the road in three of five matches and an average of 1.84 xGA per 90 minutes which is the 5th highest away mark in the league.

Atlanta, an offensive minded team who play very well at home vs a terrible away team with an awfully leaky defense. Let’s combine Atlanta with the Over to get a nice plus return.

Prediction: Atlanta United Moneyline + Over 2.5 Goals +120