MLS Betting Preview: Predictions, Picks and Odds For Wednesday May 31

Betting Preview for Wednesday MLS May 31

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his Wednesday May 31 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC and Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC | Wednesday May 31 | 7:30pm ET

Philadelphia -165 | Draw +290 | Charlotte +450
Asian Handicap: Philadelphia -1.0 | Total: 2.75

The Union are back! After a less-than-stellar start to the season as Philly struggled to juggle both their MLS and Champions League duties, the Union have now gone unbeaten in their last five matches since being eliminated.

Most impressively, two of those matches featured road wins at quality opponents including the Red Bulls and NYCFC. If there was one knock on them last year it was their ability to travel was nowhere near as good as their home form.

The Eastern Conference favorites are now up to 4th in the table although catching conference-leading Cincinnati looks like a difficult task as they haven’t been dropping points very often.

Even with a couple of poor performances at home this season, Philadelphia still has a +0.79 xG differential per match. Charlotte is not a strong team by any metric, including on the road where they average a -0.50 xG differential per 90 minutes.

Surprisingly though, Charlotte do have three away wins this year. They took advantage of a red card situation vs Atlanta, winning 3-1.

They beat Orlando 2-1 despite losing the xG battle 0.7 to 1.5, and most recently, they won 1-0 at LA Galaxy which was a deserved result.

However, that match was played on Saturday and now just four days later they are back on the East coast. That travel gives us another edge working in Philly’s favor as the Union were just a short bus ride away over the weekend in New York City.

Finally, Philadelphia host Montreal at home this upcoming weekend. Midweek matches always cause havoc for teams that need to travel but the Union are setup to take full advantage of very little travel over the three matches in one week’s time.

Prediction: Philadelphia Union -1.0 +100

Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls | Wednesday May 31 | 7:30pm ET

Miami +185 | Draw +205 | NYRB +160
Asian Handicap: Pick’em | Total: 2.25

And just like that, all things are right in the world as New York once again plays to an Under vs Seattle to make it 13 of 15 matches this season that have finished Under the total.

New York’s defense wasn’t as sharp as we have seen it as they allowed 1.8 xG to the Sounders, but in typical Red Bull fashion, they allowed only one goal on those chances.

Offensively, they also followed their season form as they were unable to net a goal despite creating 1.0 xG themselves. In total, they have now scored just ten goals on 19.3 xG through 15 matches.

The 1.8 xG NYRB allowed was the highest mark all season, but they still remain one of just two teams allowing less than 1.0 xGA on average as they lead the league with a 0.88 mark. Miami though, is not the worrisome offense that Seattle is.

The Sounders 1.65 xG per match ranks 2nd behind only LAFC while Miami is one of only two MLS teams creating less than 1.0 xG per match, at 0.93 per 90 minutes. In fact, only four matches this season have they generated more than 1.0 xG and none in their last four.

This is likely a good spot to bet on NYRB getting a result as well. I have mentioned plenty of times before that they are a “buy” team as there remains no doubt in my mind that this is a playoff team, capable of making a deep run. If you don’t trust the Under, look at NYRB on the 2-way pick’em line as another option with the protection against the draw.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -125

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo | Wednesday May 31 | 10:30pm ET

Vancouver -145 | Draw +295 | Chicago +360
Asian Handicap: Vancouver -0.75 | Total: 2.75

It’s no secret I like to reference xG when breaking down a match and this one features one of the biggest disparities so far this season.

Vancouver averages a +0.47 xG differential per 90 minutes while Houston sits a -0.44. However, both teams feature strong home/away splits which is where these numbers grow significantly.

Vancouver averages the most xG per 90 minutes at home at 2.16 with a strong defense leading to a +1.10 differential.

Meanwhile Houston is terrible on the road, creating just 0.77 xG per match, which wouldn’t you know it, ranks dead last in the entire league.

That is just part of the story when looking at their -1.17 average road xG differential. The stat chart shows a full comprehensive breakdown of the disparity in numbers between these sides.

Vancouver has kept more clean sheets (4) than matches in which they have allowed goals (3) at home and have created more xG in every match but one. Houston have scored a total of just four goals through six away matches, never scoring more than one in any match, and have allowed more xG to their opponent in all six matches.

Historically speaking, this matchup has been dominated by the home side, which makes sense considering the travel required between the teams.

There have been a few draws along the way, but in 22 all-time matches, the road team has won just one time which happened to be the Whitecaps back in 2018. Houston has never won in Vancouver in 11 trips with three draws and eight losses.

Prediction: Vancouver Whitecaps Moneyline (or -0.5) -145. Play -0.75 as a safe alternative.