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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Predictions, Picks and Best Bets – NFL Playoffs 1/21/24

Chiefs prep for Super Bowl vs 49ers

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction: The Betting Analysis

NFL content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his expert betting prediction and picks for Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills NFL Playoff matchup kicking off on January 21st at 6:30pm ET. What are they looking at from a betting perspective? Get his NFL Playoff betting analysis now!

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Predictions: Best Betting Odds & Game Info

Sunday, January 21NFL Playoff Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Spread:Kansas City Chiefs +3 vs Buffalo Bills
Total:45.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Game Time:6:30pm ET / 3:30pm PT
Arena:Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

Kansas City Chiefs Wildcard Game Takeaways

It wasn’t a fair fight last week, and that was well documented before the game. The rest enabled KC to reset, while injuries and a short week hurt Miami, who also had to deal with losing the opportunity to secure the #2 overall seed in brutal fashion.

I’m not sure why people thought rookie WR Rashee Rice was only now emerging. He’s been great most of the year and the chemistry has been there for two months.

The talk after the game was about Tua’s less than stellar performance. Sorry, but not just weather, but KC’s defense (and their edge vs. Miami’s OL) was the cause, as I believe Tua will bounce back.

KC is especially dangerous vs. the pass. Two more observations. 1st, RB Pacheco runs angry. 2nd, TE Kelce looked as rested and fit as he has been in months. That combination is a pretty good one to have.

Buffalo Bills Wildcard Game Takeaways

Pittsburgh had a +11 turnover ratio during the regular season but I questioned how long that could be sustained. On Monday, two quick turnovers put the Steelers in a quick deficit.

I suspected missing T.J. Watt would matter, which was not a tough call (now 1-11 straight-up in games where he does not play).

When Josh Allen goes turnover-free, Buffalo becomes very tough to beat. RB Cook ran 18-79 and WR Diggs, who doesn’t like to be ignored in the pass game, went 7-52.

It was cold, but Buffalo made this game closer than it really was thanks to a field goal being blocked, coupled with a missed 27-yard field goal attempt which was poorly struck.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction: The PICK

This will be Mahomes first true road playoff game. The weather won’t be a factor with both teams and QB’s quite accustomed to it, but streaking Buffalo is happy to be the host.

Buffalo beat KC, at KC on 12/10 but that was a great spot for the Bills, as they were off a full bye week during that time period when the Chiefs were continually facing a negative rest differential.

This turned out to be a tossup game, both in score and on the stat sheet. KC’s task is to force Josh Allen into making mistakes. Buffalo’s job is to do a better job containing TE Kelce (6-83).

Buffalo’s Power Number is higher than KC’s, and I understand why, but I did adjust KC’s number up one full point based on the flip of their schedule in their favor (that week 18 refresher).

Bookmaker had Buffalo as high as -3, laying -105. Most shops have Buffalo at 2.5, but heavily juiced. I write this on Monday Night and do not know right now which way the odds will swing, but KC +3 is my current recommendation.

Lean: Kansas City Chiefs +3

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