Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Betting Preview
WagerTalk NBA handicapper Tony Finn offers his Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat betting preview for Monday, November 8. At the time of posting, the Heat have opened as a 2-point road favorite in Denver with the total sitting at 205.5 points.
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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Predictions
- Denver Nuggets +2 vs Miami Heat
- Total: 205.5 Points
- The under is 8-1 in Denver’s first nine games this season.
- If this point spread holds true until tip-off, this will be Denver’s first game as a home underdog this season.
- Miami has been a road favorite twice this season, going 1-1 against the spread in those two contests.
On Monday night, the Miami Heat are in the Mile High City of Denver, Colorado, for the first of a five-game road trip. The Heat square off against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. Miami’s second-year point-guard Tyler Herro led all scorers with 29 points, and Kyle Lowry registered his 19th career triple-double in a 118-115 win over the Utah Jazz in Miami on Saturday. However, Denver’s All-NBA center Nikola Jokic blocked a Jae’Sean Tate’s floater at the rim as time ran out, and the Nuggets earned a 95-94 victory over the Houston Rockets. Miami enters Ball Arena on Monday night as 1.5-point short road favorites.
The Heat have traditionally been a top-of-the-charts defensive team under head coach Erik Spoelstra and this season is no different. Miami surrenders 102.6 points per 100 possessions which ranks fourth in the league. In addition, the Heat have top-10 ratings in the categories of effective field goal percentage allowed and opponents rebounding percentage, ranking 5th and 3rd in those eFG% and ORB% game variables, respectively.
After nine games this 2021-22 regular season, the Heat have performed better on both ends of the court. Miami is scoring nearly three more per 100 possessions and holding the opponents to over nine points less per 100 than last year’s squad. The Heat were among the busiest Association front offices during free agency. Among the acquisitions were guard Kyle Lowry (Toronto Raptors), P.J. Tucker (Milwaukee Bucks), and Markieff Morris (Los Angeles Lakers).
“At the end of the day, I think all these experiences, particularly for a semi-new team early in the season, are really important to go through,” Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said during the team’s Saturday night post-game presser. “Late-game situations, learning how to hold onto a lead, how to play … I just think it was really important to go through that. Obviously, it’s always better if you can do that and get a win.”
The Denver Nuggets have been a completely different animal in 2021 than a year ago. Denver performed at a much higher level last year when forced to play without Jamal Murray on game night. In that short stretch of games without Murray a year ago, Jokić was in his MVP form, and Michael Porter Jr. was a confident scorer.
The Nuggets are 5-4 to start the season. Given last year’s performance, expectations for this Denver team without Murray are unreasonable. Porter Jr is listed as day-to-day with a back ailment, and Murray (knee) remains inactive while rehabbing from ACL surgery. A month-plus into the regular season, the Nuggets are averaging 14-less-points per 100 possession compared to last season’s offensive metrics. Denver is surrendering 10 points less on defensive, but that improvement is more due to playing at a more conservative pace offensively.
The starting rotation of Monte Morris, Will Barton, Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon, and Jokic issue the Nuggets a +1.6 Net rating. Without Jokic, the team’s Net rating is -25.5. Without Jokic and small forward Barton, the Nuggets have a -43.3 Net, according to Cleaningtheglass.com. Porter Jr is averaging less than 10 points per game, and the Nuggets can’t return a healthy Murray soon enough.
Miami won for the sixth time in seven games in their home win over Utah on Saturday night. The Nuggets have the edge of home court and playing at altitude Monday night, but that is their only advantage when comparing the form of the two teams. Miami is 6th in the league in scoring offense, 1st in the league in rebounding, and rank 3rd in scoring defense.
Behind Jimmy Butler’s 24.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per contest, the Heat put the Nuggets in the position of being a home underdog for the first time this season. The growth and maturation of point guard Tyler Herro (21.3 pts), the skillset of center Bam Adebayo (19.4 and 12 rebounds), the dead-eye three-point shooting of Duncan Robinson, and the veteran leadership of Kyle Lowry create a formidable Miami unit.
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Here are som early numbers#KUHoops -4.5/-5 vs #MSU_basketball
& #DukeMBB -1/-1.5 vs #KentuckyMBB pic.twitter.com/liu3qvGWo5— Ralph Michaels (@CalSportsLV) November 8, 2021
Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Analysis from The GoldSheet
The Heat did almost everything right on Saturday vs. the Jazz until the last five minutes, when Utah whittled a 19-point deficit down to two at one point, which gave Erik Spoelstra plenty to talk to his team about afterward and on the flight to Denver. But the offense that went on the blink in last Thursday’s ugly loss to the Celtics bounced back with a vengeance on Saturday when connecting on better than 60% from the floor while G Kyle Lowry recovered quickly from an off-night against Boston to score 20 vs. Utah. The Heat also have a score to settle with Denver after the Nuggets ran up a couple of scores on Miami last term, including a 27-point romp on the road at American Airlines Arena that merits an asterisk for the players unavailable that night for Spoelstra, with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Goran Dragic (now with Toronto) all sidelined. Now it’s the Nuggets who are shorthanded minus Jamal Murray and with Michael Porter, Jr. also unlikely to go due to his balky back.
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