Celtics vs Heat Series Betting Analysis
WagerTalk NBA handicapper Andy Lang offers his expert Celtics vs Heat series prediction providing betting insights and analysis before Game 1 tip off May 17. Three of four regular season meetings between the Celtics and Heat were decided by seven points or less.
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Celtics vs Heat Series Betting Odds
| Series Betting | NBA Betting Notes, Courtesy of DraftKings |
|---|---|
| Moneyline to Win Series: | Boston Celtics -525 vs Miami Heat +400 |
| Series Spread: | Celtics -1.5 (-195) / Heat +1.5 (+160) |
| Series Total Games: | 4 Games (+350), 5 Games (+230), 6 Games (+260), 7 Games (+265) |
| Series Correct Score | Celtics 4-1 (+245), Celtics 4-2 (+360), Celtics 4-3 (+360) |
| Featured Prop Bet: | Any Player to score 50 points in a game (+1200) |
Celtics vs Heat Series Betting Analysis
The No. 8 seed Miami Heat will meet the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs to determine which team will go to the NBA Finals.
This will be the third time in four years that Boston and Miami will battle for a berth in the Finals. In the Orlando bubble playoffs in 2020, the Heat took advantage of neutral court and won in six games.
Last season, the Celtics won a Game 7 in Miami to earn their shot at Golden State in the Finals. These teams split their four regular season meetings during the 2022-23 campaign 2-2 with each team winning a home and away game.
The Heat are rolling on house money as they are only the second team to reach the conference finals round after the Knicks advanced to the 1999 Finals.
Once Miami eliminated Milwaukee the Celtics were considered favorites in the East but needed 13 games to reach this point.
Still it isn’t a surprise that bookmakers have made Boston heavy favorites to win the series with a -525 money line while Miami sits at +400. The Celtics are 8 point home favorites in Game 1 with a total set at 210.5.
Celtics vs Heat Regular Season Results
October 21st: Celtics 111 @ Heat 104
November 30th Heat 121 @ Celtics 134
December 2nd: Heat 120 @ Celtics 116 (OT)
January 24th: Celtics 95 @ Heat 98
No.1 Offense vs No. 1 Defense
The 34 year-old Joe Mazzulla is in his first year on the job and was considered to be at a disadvantage against veteran head coach Doc Rivers last round against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Now he faces arguably the best NBA coach in Erik Spoelstra. Mazzulla made a genius coaching move prior to Game 6 against the Sixers by starting Robert Williams III next to Al Horford rather than staggering their use. It worked for the Celtics last season and again this season to finish off Philadelphia.
Spoelstra made in game and in series adjustments to climb out of the play-in tournament and his teams often over-achieve. Still, anything short of a Finals appearance will be considered a disappointment for Boston.
Shining Stars
Jayson Tatum was in quite the shooting slump prior to roasting Philadelphia for 51 points in Sunday’s clincher.
Tatum started off Games 5 & 6 with horrendous shooting efforts prior to catching fire at the end of Game 6 and riding that wave into the deciding game. The Heat are known for their defense, but Tatum scored 29, 49, 31 & 14 points against them during the regular season.
Jimmy Butler is known for excelling on big stages and in clutch moments and he has already had nights with 56, 42 & 35 points in the playoffs.
Butler has averaged 31.1 points on 52.7% shooting in the post-season but has looked mortal since rolling his ankle in Game 1 against New York with an average of 24.5 points on 41.7% shooting.
Bench Play
Duncan Robinson was called into action when both Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo went down with injury in the first round.
He shot an effective 26-61 (42.6%) from three-point range and the Heat outscored opponents by 16.8 points per 100 possessions in the 194 with Robinson on the floor.
The Celtics have also been at their best with reserve Malcolm Brogdon on the floor, outscoring their opponents by 11.4 points per 100 possessions in his 361 playoff minutes.
Brogdon has been even better from beyond the arc than Robinson, shooting 30-69 for 43.5% and he will be more likely to be on the floor down the stretch in close games. Both sides rely on their stars, but bench minutes will be critical down the stretch.
Celtics vs Heat Series Prediction
This series will give both sides the opportunity to showcase their exceptional abilities and the Celtics will be laser focused after being forced to a Game 7 against Philadelphia.
This will motivate Boston to start the series strong and they will have the advantage of playing the first two games at TD Garden.
These teams have crossed paths four times this season with full rosters and have grown familiar with each other’s playing styles. This could give Miami an advantage based on their gritty defensive style.
However, Herro is still a few weeks away from returning and without him Butler doesn’t have a scoring partner to keep up with Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
This feels like the Celtics year and I’m very confident with them advancing to the Finals. The -525 money line is obviously unacceptable so let’s roll with Boston -2 5 games at +115 odds.
I’m fully expecting two home wins to open the series, a split in South Beach before closing out the series at home in Game 5.
Expert Prediction: Boston Celtics -2.5 Games +115 Draftkings
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NBA Tip-Off Show | May 16
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Meet the Author
Andy Lang has lived in Indianapolis his whole life, and like most people from the Hoosier State, he became fascinated with motor sports. That interest in motor sports turned into a desire to make money off the sport through fantasy contests and sports betting. Like most, he took his lumps when he first got started, but now he is one of the most respected NASCAR bettors in the industry. Andy has expanded that sports betting experience to become profitable in a number of other sports, transforming this interest from a side hobby to a major source of income.
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