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Wurth 400 Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds April 30

NASCAR driver preps for Geico 500

Wurth 400 Betting Preview

WagerTalk NASCAR handicapper Andy Lang offers his predictions and betting preview on the Wurth 400 with drivers starting their engines at 2:00pm ET from Dover International Speedway. Andy discusses the point leaders and breaks down betting angles surrounding Toyota, Chevrolet and Ford drivers.

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Wurth 400 NASCAR Betting Notes
When: April 30, 2023 2:00pm ET / 11:00am PT
Where: Dover International Speedway
Defending Champ: Chase Elliot
Current Favorite: Kyle Larson (+500 at DraftKings)
TV: FS1

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Wurth 400 Betting Analysis

NASCAR heads to Dover in what hopefully ends up being an exciting race, but based on what we’ve seen on these tracks and from comments from drivers, they just can’t pass on the green flag laps in these cars, especially at a track like Dover.

Chase Elliott won this race last year, but Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain and Denny Hamlin all lead a significant amount of laps.

The monster mile is a mile track that requires a lot patience, and not using up tires and brakes too much before the last part of the race, but as we’ve seen track position is everything so don’t be surprised if you see drivers try different strategies this week.

I took the average finishes of Martinsville and Richmond for this year, and I know they aren’t the same length or surface, but they’re shorter tracks that I like to look at. The top 5 driver ratings at those races this year are:

1. Kyle Larson
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Chase Briscoe
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Alex Bowman

Hendricks Tops the Odds Board

Chevy’s have won 7 out of 10 races this season, but two of them were restrictor plate tracks, and Ford’s only win was a restrictor plate track as well.

Toyota has won the dirt track race and the road course race so all signs point to Chevy winning this week, and with this prop still at plus money it’s certainly worth a sprinkle.

I think this moment has been long overdue, but I just can’t ever have a bet involving Ross Chastain. Whether it’s his fault or someone else fault, he’s always involved in something chaotic and you never know when it’s going to happen.

The top betting favorites are the Hendricks cars of Larson, Byron and Elliott and it’s hard to argue against any of them, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll finish that way so you have to try and pick which one will be the best, and although Larson has the highest upside at this point, the price Chase Elliott is really good.

He’s +750 to win, and -105 to finish Top 5. I know he’s coming off the broken leg, but he’s had two races to get back into the swing of things, and he is the defending Champ so getting almost even money is a great price in my opinion.

If you’re looking a bit of a sleeper, take a look at Chase Briscoe. He was great at Martinsville and good at Richmond, and he finished 13th at Dover last year which leads me to a nice bet I see on Draftkings

Wurth 400 Predictions

Chris Buescher was good at Dover last year, but so was Chase Briscoe as Buescher finished 8th and Briscoe 13th, but this year is a different story.

Briscoe has finished way ahead of Buescher at Martinsville, Bristol, Richmond and Phoenix, all shorter tracks this year. RFK Racing isn’t getting it done for Buescher this year, this is a solid bet.

Prediction: Chase Briscoe -110 Over Chris Buescher

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