UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs Barboza Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds October 14

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for October 14 with Sodiq Yusuff vs Edson Barboza headlining the event in a featherweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Sodiq Yusuff vs Edson Barboza: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, October 14	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Sodiq Yusuff -165 vs Edson Barboza +140
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over -160 / Under +135)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Chris Gutierrez -380 v Alatengheili +300

I liked Gutierrez when I saw this matchup, but -380…yikes. That price makes this unplayable in my opinion.

I thought Gutierrez blew it against Pedro Munhoz last fight, and he did admit it in an interview. He let himself get walked down, he was never in control of the fight, and I don’t think he’ll let that happen again.

He will get back to his brutal leg kicks, and while I do like Alatengheili, I don’t think he’ll have enough to keep up for three rounds.

He’s tough and is 4-1-1 in the UFC, but this is a big step up in competition, and once those leg kicks land from Gutierrez his striking will be less and less effective. The line is crazy here, this will be a no bet for me.

Tainara Lisboa -380 v Ravena Oliveira +300

Tainara Lisboa looked great in her UFC debut as she showed really crisp striking combinations, and good power and even though she got taken down by Jessica Rose Clark, she was able to get back up and defend other takedowns.

She got taken down in round three and suffered damage from ground and pound, but still had enough cardio to reverse the position and submit Rose Clark with 40 seconds left.

Ravena Oliveira is making her UFC debut, and it’s hard to figure out what she brings to the table. There is limited film on Oliveira, but her level of competition is laughable.

Her last opponent was 8-5 and the previous 8 had a combined record of 1-2. She has wild striking, and I expect her to lose, but this is a stay away fight as the uncertainty around Oliveira makes it too risky.

Darren Elkins +154 v TJ Brown -185

This is going to be a quick exciting fight as these two guys will stand and go toe to toe the second the ref says “Let’s Fight”. Both are a big wild with their striking, but they will eat one to land one and my hunch is that both will land a lot and eat a lot.

Elkins is 39, but he might actually have the better cardio, but he also has absorbed an insane amount of damage, most notably in his last fight against Bill Algeo where he was covered in his own blood by the end.

I think someone is going to get knocked out as this will look like an alley fight on the feet, and anyone could pull the knockout so I’ll just play this fight to not go the distance. It will probably be juiced, but it’s a nice parlay piece.

Ashley Yoder +230 v Emily Ducote -285

Ashley Yoder is 1-4 in his last five and only 8-8 as a pro, and when you watch her fights she just doesn’t offer a lot of good offensive weapons.

Her punches aren’t crisp or powerful, and her leg kicks aren’t effective and she doesn’t throw enough of them. Her last 10 fights have gone the distance, and I think that’s the play here.

Ducote is a better striker than Yoder, and I think she’ll get the win, but all three of her UFC fights have gone the distance, and she doesn’t have great striking defense so I see this fight taking place on the feet with both fighters landing strikes, but neither doing enough to finish the other.

Ducote by decision might a decent play, but I’ll just stick with this to go the distance no matter who wins.

Irina Alekseeva +114 v Melissa Dixon -135

Don’t bet this fight. There are a million different things you could do with your money that are safer than betting anything on this fight. Irina Alekseeva is a submission specialist who upset Stephanie Egger by knee bar in her UFC debut, but Egger looked like she was half asleep in that fight.

Dixon is 5-0 in her career, but hasn’t fought great competition, and even though she got the round one finish in her last fight she got her face smashed in for the first few minutes of the fight.

Both these women have lots of holes in their defense, and both have quite a few unknowns so I’ll save the time on a prediction and just say pass, and don’t bet this fight.

Edgar Chairez -278 v Daniel Lacerda +225

This is a rematch from a few weeks ago where Chairez was submitting Lacerda, the ref stopped it and they determined it was an early stoppage.

I did not think it was an early stoppage, but I liked Chairez to win that fight, and I like him to win it again. Lacerda is 0-4 in the UFC, and he will be 0-5 after Chairez finishes him.

Lacerda hasn’t made it to the third round in any fight and has been finished in rounds one or two in all four UFC fights, and he was well on his way to being finished before a very fortunate determination was made in his favor. It won’t happen again, I’ll take Chairez ITD.

Christian Rodriguez -135 v Cameron Saaiman +114

This is a great fight between two young fighters, and I like the underdog in this one. Christian Rodriguez has won two fights in a row, but I wouldn’t call them dominating.

Weems had taken him down a couple times, and had landed strikes, but Rodriguez caught him in a nice Anaconda in a scramble, and against Raul Rosas he survived the first round onslaught and let Rosas gas himself as Rodriguez just rode out a decision win against an exhausted young opponent.

Cameron Saaiman has shown good power, and good ground game, and he seems to be getting better each fight which is what we want to see in a young fighter.

Jonathan Martinez -110 v Adrian Yanez -110

Adrian Yanez stepped up in competition in his last fight and got knocked out by Rob Font in round one in a fight he came out over confident and sloppy. His power is elite, but his striking defense got sloppy in the last fight and it cost him.

Yanez is a really good boxer, but Martinez is a nightmare matchup for him. Jonathan Martinez has vicious leg kicks, which he will use effectively, and he can clinch and win the ground game if he wants to take it there.

Martinez showed incredible durability last fight in a win against Nurmagomedov, and he’ll need it as Yanez will certainly land hard shots, but Martinez has so many weapons that he can use and with Yanez’s questionable striking defense, I don’t think Yanez wins unless he knocks out Martinez early.

Martinez has only been knocked out once in his career, and I see him pulling away from Yanez the
longer the fight goes on so I’ll make Martinez my pick in this one.

Jennifer Maia -148 v Viviane Araujo +124

The only way to play this fight is to take it to go to decision. The last 8 fights for Viviane Araujo have gone to decision, and 12 out of the last 13 fights for Jennifer Maia have gone the distance.

This should be a fight that takes place on the feet, and it should be a great fight as both can throw strikes and because it’s so even, Araujo is the value at plus money, but don’t overthink this just take the overs in this fight.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Sodiq Yusuff -165 vs Edson Barboza +140

Sodiq Yusuff is the favorite here, and I will lean with him to win the fight, but it’s not a bet I will be making. Yusuff is really tough, and can push forward, but he’s low volume on his striking.

Only 64 in three rounds against Caceres, only 47 against Arnold Allen in three rounds…it’s just a recipe to have very close fights, and I don’t want to be laying this juice in a fight that could be really close.

Edson Barboza is coming off a first round KO of Billy Quarantillo, but he had lost two fights previously to Bryce Mitchell and Giga Chikadze, and my worry is that his cardio has slowed the longer the fight goes on. Yusuff won’t slow down, but Barboza could slow down if Yusuff pushes the pace, but again, Yusuff is low volume and I don’t know if he will force Barboza to use a lot of energy.

It’s a very small lean to Yusuff, but I won’t be betting this fight.

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