UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr. Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 21, 2025

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for June 21, 2025 with the main event headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. in a light heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan!

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Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr.: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, June 21	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Jamahal Hill +105 vs Khalil Rountree Jr. -125
Rounds:	3.5 (Over +170 / Under -220)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Arena:	Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan
TV:	ABC

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Hamdy Abdelwahab -175 vs Mohammed Usman +145 

Abdelwahab vs Usman is a low-level heavyweight clash between two low-volume strikers, and it has all the makings of a slow, grinding fight.

Abdelwahab is a wrestler by trade—he can secure  takedowns, but he rarely finishes fights. Usman is coming off two straight losses and hasn’t shown much improvement in the UFC.

He’s muscular but sluggish, and struggles with output and cardio. Abdelwahab should be able to mix in some wrestling, control position, and do enough to win a slow, uneventful decision. Pick is Abdelwahab by decision.

Tagir Ulanbekov -380 vs Azat Maksum +300 

Ulanbekov vs Maksum sets up as a classic grappler vs striker matchup with clear edges as the fight goes on.

Maksum is dangerous early with solid striking and good pressure, but he faded badly in his last fight after a strong start, dropping the final two rounds to Charles Johnson. 

Ulanbekov, on the other hand, is a composed, long fighter with excellent takedowns, top control, and submission skills.

He’s great at using his length and straight punches to close distance and drag fights to the mat. Expect Maksum to start fast, but Ulanbekov’s pace and grappling should take over. Pick is Ulanbekov by decision or late submission.

Irina Alekseeva -270 vs Klaudia Sygula +220 

This is a low-level matchup between two fighters who haven’t shown much at the UFC level, but  Alekseeva has the clearer path to victory.

Sygula’s striking isn’t up to par, and she was easily taken down and finished by Mullins in her last fight. Alekseeva lost to Mullins as well, but she at least made it the distance and showed a bit more toughness and physicality.

She should have the edge in strength and grappling, and if she comes in with a wrestling-heavy game plan, she likely gets this to the ground and controls her way to a clear win. Alekseeva is the pick.

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Melissa Mullins -270 vs Daria Zhelezniakova +220 

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Mullins has strong takedowns and solid top control, and she’ll be looking to force this into a ground fight where she has a clear edge.

Zheleznyakova is the much better striker, and she had some success on the feet in her last fight before getting  submitted by Perez.

Even though she briefly gained top position in that fight, she looked completely outmatched once it hit the mat.

Mullins applies steady forward pressure and should only need a couple of clean takedowns to control rounds and neutralize Zheleznyakova’s striking. Mullins is the pick.

Jun Yong Park -180 vs Ismail Naurdiev +150 

This is a close matchup between two well-rounded fighters. Park brings solid volume striking and relentless forward pressure, but his technique can be a bit loose, and he’s been in back-to back split decisions, which shows how razor-thin his recent performances have been.

He does have a strong ground game with multiple submissions on his record, but he’ll face resistance here.

Naurdiev looked well-rounded in his UFC return, showing both striking and wrestling ability, even if it came against a struggling opponent in Silva.

He won’t be easy to pressure or control, and his overall game feels slightly more polished. In a coin-flip fight, I’ll take the value on Naurdiev as the underdog.

Oban Elliott -500 vs Seokhyeon Ko +380 

This fight shapes up to be closer than the odds suggest. Ko looked composed and defensively sharp on the Contender Series, leaning on her judo and clinch work, but she didn’t face much adversity.

Elliott, on the other hand, has shown steady improvement in the UFC—his striking is developing, he’s mixing in more kicks, and his cardio and durability are strong assets.

The path to victory could come from pushing a pace, clinching, and testing Ko’s gas tank and comfort in  scrambles.

That said, the current line is far too wide for a still-developing fighter like Ko. Elliott likely edges this out in a close one, but no value at the current price—it’s a pass.

Muhammad Naimov -230 vs Bogdan Grad +190 

This is a high-energy matchup between two aggressive fighters who both mix striking and grappling well. Naimov likes to push forward, throw big shots, and hunt takedowns, but he’s not immune to getting clipped in exchanges.

Grad showed his toughness in his last fight— weathering early adversity and turning the tide with a knockdown and a finish.

Both guys will  have their moments in what should be a fast-paced scrap, but this feels a lot closer to a pick’em than the odds suggest. In a 50/50 style fight, the value sits with Grad at plus money. He’s the  pick.

Nazim Sadykhov -470 vs Nikolas Motta +360 

Sadykhov enters this fight on an impressive 10-1-fight win streak after dropping his pro debut, and he’s done it with elite striking and killer instinct—nine of those wins have come by finish. 

He mixes punches and kicks with precision, and his pressure often overwhelms opponents. Motta has respectable striking and has won two in a row, but he hasn’t faced anyone on Sadykhov’s level.

This is a significant step up in competition, and Sadykhov’s explosiveness should be too much. Expect him to land something big—Sadykhov by finish is the play.

Myktybek Orolbai -165 vs Tofiq Musayev +140 

Orolbai vs Musayev is likely to play out mostly on the feet, but there’s a chance we see Orolbai mix in some wrestling like he did against Rebecki, scoring a key takedown in round two.

While his striking defense isn’t the sharpest and he tends to wear damage on his face—which can be  dangerous in close fights—he’s still the more reliable option here.

Musayev, at 35 years old with  27 pro fights and a background in RIZIN and ONE, raises some red flags. If he were UFC caliber, he likely would’ve made the leap earlier. Orolbai is the pick.

Curtis Blaydes -285 vs Rizvan Kuniev +230 

Curtis Blaydes vs Shamil Kuniev feels like a clear step up in class for Kuniev, who didn’t impress much in his Contender Series win against a weak opponent.

Kuniev is slow, low volume, and although he has some power, it’s not the kind that has historically troubled Blaydes. Blaydes tends to struggle against elite strikers with knockout power, but Kuniev isn’t that guy. Add in the 

red flag of a past steroid suspension in PFL, and it’s hard to trust him. Blaydes has the wrestling, cardio, and striking edge—he should be better everywhere and is the clear pick here.

Ignacio Bahamondes -120 vs Rafael Fiziev +100 

This is a tricky fight to call. Fiziev is a fan favorite with highlight-reel striking, but he’s dropped three in a row—all to top-tier opponents.

While he’s fast and dangerous in the pocket, he hasn’t been able to consistently execute his game plan at the elite level.

Bahamondes comes in on a three-fight win streak, though the wins weren’t against high-level competition—he submitted  Turner after getting taken down early, and beat Torres and Giagos, who both have serious flaws. 

Fiziev will have the power edge and better technique in close, but Bahamondes has a massive reach advantage and is more effective at range.

Fiziev might be the better overall striker, but he often fights in bursts and can be out-volumed. If Bahamondes keeps this at distance and stays off the mat, he has a real path to a decision win. I’ll take him to win. 

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr.

I’ve made money fading Jamahal Hill in his last two fights, and I’m going right back to the well  here. Hill’s run to a title shot was built on wins over a series of compromised opponents—one was retiring, one had no chin, one quit the UFC and just came back, and another bolted for the  PFL.

Since then, Hill tore his Achilles, rushed back too soon, and has been knocked out by both Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka. 

Hill relies heavily on one-shot KO power, but that power seems diminished, and his output and  movement have looked sluggish.

On the other side, Rountree got beat down by Pereira too, but lasting into the fourth round was impressive, and he had solid moments in that fight. He brings more aggression and a wider variety of attacks—power kicks, clinch work, and pressure. 

This fight should stay on the feet, and Rountree is the one pushing the pace with more tools. Hill feels like a guy collecting checks at this point, while Rountree still looks like a fighter with something to prove. Rountree is the play.

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