UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan Picks, Predictions and Odds October 10, 2026

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for October 10, 2026 with the main event headlined by Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on Total Bases. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.

Get Andy Lang’s PREMIUM Picks!

WagerTalk also offers Free UFC Picks all year long!

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, October 10	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan
Rounds:	3.5 (Over -120 / Under -102)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	Paramount+

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions

Herbert (+155) vs Camilo (-185)

I love Camilo here. Herbert is coming off a knockout win, but he was dropped and nearly finished early in that fight. If that sequence goes differently, Herbert would be coming in with two straight losses and three losses in his last four.

Camilo is younger, faster, and more athletic, and he showed his power with a knockout win last time out. I think there’s a clear athletic and speed advantage here. Camilo is the easy pick.

Souza (+180) vs Godinez (-220)

Loopy should be more active on the feet. Her striking isn’t great, but Souza’s isn’t much better, and Souza can get wild with her striking. Souza can clinch and wrestle, but that’s Loopy’s background, so I don’t see her dominating Godinez in those areas either. Loopy has also consistently faced the better competition. Godinez is a pretty easy pick for me.

Meerschaert (+205) vs Walker (-250)

I have to keep fading Meerschaert. This will be his 60th professional fight, he’s lost five straight, and retirement has to be getting close. He’s never been a particularly good striker, but now the wrestling and grappling aren’t getting the job done either, and his speed is basically nonexistent.

Walker isn’t great and has lost two straight himself, but at this stage he’s clearly the better athlete. Walker should outwork Meerschaert everywhere and is the pick.

Fili (-150) vs Kamaka III (+125)

I’m not a Kamaka guy. His striking isn’t particularly exciting, and even though he’s only 31, he looks like he’s starting to slow down. He was knocked out in his last fight as well, so there are questions about whether the durability is starting to disappear.

Fili is no spring chicken himself at 36 and was also finished last time out. The difference is I think Fili will be more active on the feet and can potentially mix in some wrestling. Fili is the pick.

Wellmaker (-215) vs Tanzilovi (+185)

Wellmaker looked like a big-time prospect with an incredibly high ceiling, but he’s now lost two straight and hasn’t shown improvement as the competition has gotten tougher.

Last fight he was outwrestled and looked tentative with his striking. Tanzilovi wants this fight on the ground, which is where he’s at his best, and Wellmaker looked lost in that area last time. I can’t keep backing Wellmaker when he isn’t showing signs of improvement. Tanzilovi at +185 is the pick.

Prado (+105) vs Bonfim (-125)

Prado keeps running into the same problem—his arms are too short. He struggles to generate power from range and has to work his way inside, where he’s been losing striking exchanges.

Bonfim has his own major issues, though. He’s been finished in three straight, fights aggressively, tires himself out, and makes too many mistakes. That’s exactly the type of fighter I don’t want to bet. Prado should still have energy and pressure in the second and third rounds when Bonfim starts fading. Prado at +105 is the pick.

Ribeiro (+250) vs Franco (-320)

Ribeiro isn’t great, but his striking is better than Franco’s, which makes this line look too wide. Franco will want to wrestle and will probably have some success getting the fight to the ground. On the feet, though, he’s going to get hit, and Ribeiro should also be able to land leg kicks.

Franco probably finds enough takedowns and control to grind out the win, but I’m not laying -320 in this matchup. At these odds, Ribeiro +250 or nothing.

Frye Jr. (+205) vs Harris (-240)

Frye might be pound-for-pound one of the worst fighters on the roster. He’s extremely slow, gets hit way too much, loses control time in the clinch, and even when he has opponents pinned against the fence, he doesn’t do enough with the position. I just don’t see much upside.

Harris is a legitimate fighter with knockout power, and he’s already shown he can go the distance, so cardio isn’t a concern. His striking should consistently find the target here. Harris is the pick.

Pereira (-132) vs Zheleznyakova (+108)

Pereira has accurate, powerful striking, but she simply doesn’t throw enough volume. She also spends too much time getting pushed against the fence and losing control minutes. The question is whether Zheleznyakova has the tools to exploit those weaknesses, and I’m not convinced she does. She has some similar issues of her own without having Pereira’s power.

Pereira should land the bigger strikes, create the more memorable moments, and has the possibility of landing a knockout shot. Pereira is the pick.

Shahbazyan (-140) vs Price (+125)

Shahbazyan is terrible. He’s slow, has poor striking defense, doesn’t absorb shots well, but he does have submission ability on the ground. He was finished quickly in his UFC debut and looked scared once he started getting hit, eventually turtling up.

Niko Price supposedly retired after his last fight, but they forgot to interview him afterward, so he’s coming back for one more. He’s old, slow, and struggles to generate much offense at this stage. I don’t want to trust either fighter with my money on the side. The under is the play—one of these guys is going to get hurt or taken down and quit.

Kareckaite (+125) vs Gatto (-150)

This is a pretty close matchup. Both are primarily strikers, although Gatto offers a little more on the ground without being dominant there. Kareckaite has the kickboxing background, but she doesn’t throw enough volume to confidently bank rounds, which is why her last three fights have been so close.

Gatto has been really underwhelming recently, though. She looks tentative and has been losing striking exchanges. I expect another close fight, so at these prices, I’d rather take the plus money. Kareckaite at +125 is the pick.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Brendan Allen (-150) vs Christian Leroy Duncan (+118)

Duncan should be the better striker, while Allen has the advantage on the ground. I’m just not impressed with Allen at this point. He won his last fight, but he took damage from Edmen Shahbazyan on the feet, and while he did damage Edmen himself, it was a low-volume performance that didn’t impress me.

Duncan isn’t going to stand there and let Allen tee off on him. The concern is Allen’s takedowns, but he didn’t use them much last fight, and over five rounds, constantly wrestling could wear him out. I’ll side with the cleaner striker. Duncan at +118 is the pick.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.