UFC 317: Popuria vs Oliveira Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 28

UFC 317 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 316 picks and predictions for June 28 with the main event headlined by Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira in a Lightweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.

WagerTalk also offers Free UFC Picks all year long! Also, at WagerTalk you can always find free MLB picks every day.

Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira: UFC 317 Main Event

Saturday, June 28	UFC 317 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Ilia Topuria -550 vs Charles Oliveira +375
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over -145 / Under +115)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	PPV

Before You Read UFC 317 Predictions… Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks – including UFC 317 & More

UFC 317 Predictions

Jacobe Smith -1400 vs Niko Price +800 

Jacobe Smith is a powerful, athletic new addition to the UFC roster, and this matchup looks tailor-made for him to shine.

Niko Price is an aging veteran who hasn’t looked the same in recent  years—he’s lost 4 of his last 5, has cardio issues, and showed little resistance when held down by Gorimbo.

Smith brings speed, strength, and the kind of explosive power that should overwhelm Price early. The moneyline is too steep to play, but once props drop, look to target Smith by finish.

Sedrique Dumas -180 vs Jackson McVey +150 

Dumas comes in as the favorite, but there’s no way I can back him. His decision-making—both inside and outside the cage—has been terrible, with a recent arrest adding to the red flags.

His striking is subpar, and his ground game only looks decent when he’s up against weak opponents.  McVey is 6-0 with all first-round finishes, though the level of competition has been poor.

Still, he brings violence early, and if he comes out aggressive, he has a real chance to get a finish before Dumas can grind him down. I don’t trust Dumas at all—McVey is worth a sprinkle as the underdog.

Jhonata Diniz -270 vs Alvin Hines +220 

Alvin Hines is a 33-year-old brawler with very little experience against real competition—he had one amateur bout in 2011, then disappeared for over a decade before returning in 2022.

He’s slow, throws with power, and likes head kicks, but he’s one-dimensional and has only faced low level opposition.

Jhonata Diniz, while not flawless—especially with his takedown defense— won’t have to worry about that here, as Hines doesn’t shoot.

Diniz is the more technical striker, with better footwork, higher volume, and should be able to pick Hines apart. Diniz is the pick.

Terrance McKinney -185 vs Viacheslav Borshchev +155 This is a classic “don’t blink” fight—Terrance McKinney is always dangerous early, but he completely falls apart after the first round.

His cardio issues are well documented, but his explosiveness makes him a first-round knockout or submission threat every time out.

Borshchev is a clean striker but has major issues with takedown defense, which makes him vulnerable early.  If he survives the first round, he likely takes over and finishes a fading McKinney.

The best way to play this is the fight not to go the distance, or McKinney Inside The Distance—because if he doesn’t finish early, he probably loses.

Tracy Cortez -225 vs Viviane Araujo +185 

This is a close fight on paper, and the value lies with the underdog. Tracy Cortez has a solid wrestling base and appears to be in a good mental space after distancing herself from distractions outside the cage.

However, Viviane Araujo still has plenty left in the tank at 38 and is coming off a strong win against the dangerous Karine Silva.

While Cortez may have a grappling edge, Araujo should have the cleaner and more effective striking, and her takedown defense has held up against tougher wrestlers.

Cortez’s most recent fight was a loss to Rose Namajunas, and Araujo has shown she can still compete at a high level. I’ll take a shot on Araujo as a live dog.

Jose Delgado -160 vs Hyder Amil +130 

This matchup features two explosive strikers, but the value is clearly on the underdog. While Delgado has serious knockout power and is flashy on the feet, his only loss came in a fight that went the distance—suggesting that if he can’t get the early finish, things get dicey.

Amil showed  real grit and toughness in his last fight against Gomis, winning a hard-fought three-rounder and  proving he can thrive in deep waters.

Delgado hasn’t faced anyone at Amil’s level yet, and I think that experience edge will show late. If Amil can survive the early danger, he has a great shot to take over. Amil is the pick.

Gregory Rodrigues -192 vs Jack Hermansson +160

This is a classic power vs durability matchup. Rodrigues brings explosive power and aggressive striking, but he’s known for poor cardio and suspect striking defense.

He often abandons his wrestling, which cost him in his loss to Cannonier. Hermansson, now 37, doesn’t fight  frequently, but he’s an intelligent, experienced veteran who executed a perfect game plan against  Pyfer—surviving early, then turning up the pressure as his opponent faded.

Rodrigues will likely win the early exchanges, but if he gasses out, Hermansson has the tools to rally. That said, Rodrigues likely learned from his last outing and should pace himself better here.

I’ll lean with Rodrigues to land the bigger moments and edge out a decision.

Felipe Lima -180 vs Payton Talbott +150 

Talbott came into the UFC with serious hype, but reality hit hard when veteran Raoni Barcelos exposed the holes in his game—taking him down, controlling him, and neutralizing his power shots.

Since then, Talbott hasn’t shown meaningful improvement, and the distractions outside the cage (like his reality TV appearances) raise red flags about his focus.

Meanwhile, Lima is the complete package: crisp striking, strong grappling, solid defense, and proven finishing ability. This line feels like a gift considering the skill gap and momentum. Lima is the clear pick.

Renato Moicano -162 vs Beneil Dariush +136 

This one’s a stay-away. Dariush has looked completely shot in his last two, getting finished in the first round both times, and at 35 with his style, the decline may be irreversible.

But Moicano isn’t without his own issues—he’s been rehabbing a shoulder injury and has been open that he’s  just looking for paydays.

On the feet, Dariush probably has the edge; on the ground, it’s Moicano. Too many question marks on both sides to trust either with your money. Total pass.

Brandon Royval -125 vs Josh Van +105 

Josh Van is getting a lot of hype—and for good reason. He’s 4-0 in the UFC, his striking is sharp and improving fast, and his takedown defense has held up well.

But this is a big step up. Royval  is a chaotic puzzle—his wild angles, cardio, and head movement make him a nightmare to deal with, even for more polished strikers.

He’s only lost to the elite (Pantoja twice and Moreno with  a shoulder injury), and I don’t think Van is quite at that level yet.

Royval’s awkwardness and relentless pressure should carry him here. I’ll back the more proven fighter—Royval is the pick.

Alexandre Pantoja -265 vs Kai Kara-France 

Pantoja is the champ for a reason—he’s beaten just about everyone the UFC has thrown at him, and that list includes most of the top contenders.

His ground game is suffocating, and once he  drags opponents into his world, it’s either dominant rounds or slick submissions.

Kai Kara France gets this title shot despite being 1-2 in his last three, and while he’s dangerous early with power, he’s outmatched here if it hits the mat. Unless France scores a flash KO, this is Pantoja’s  fight all day. Easy pick—Pantoja retains.

UFC 317 Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

This is a brutal stylistic matchup for Oliveira. Topuria has elite boxing and serious knockout  power, which spells trouble for a guy like Charles who’s been clipped and dropped plenty of times in recent fights.

Oliveira’s path is the ground game, but he’s getting older and hasn’t  looked nearly as sharp—he couldn’t even finish Chandler when he had the chance.

Topuria’s takedown defense should keep this standing, and if it does, he’s going to land something big.  Wait for the props—Topuria by KO/finish is the angle here.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!