Dana White's Contender Series: Week 4 Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 2

Dana White’s Contender Series Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his Week 4 Dana White’s Contender Series picks and predictions for September 2, 2025 with the main event headlined by Jack Condon vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani in a welterweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Jack Condon vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: Dana White’s Contender Series Main Event

Tuesday, September 2	Dana White’s Contender Series Week 4 (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Jack Condon +325 vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani -500
Rounds:	N/A
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

Dana White’s Contender Series Week 4 Predictions

Cezary Oleksiejcuk -300 vs Theo Haig +250

This looks like a nightmare stylistic matchup for Cezary Oleksiejcuk. Much like his brother, who has had success in the UFC, Cezary relies heavily on his striking and knockout power, but his ground game remains a major liability.

Against strikers, his hands and finishing ability make him dangerous, but when he’s forced to grapple, he’s been exposed. His recent loss to Rasulov was a perfect example — he was taken down and held on the mat for the entire fight without much resistance.

Theo Haig brings the exact kind of game that can exploit those weaknesses. He’s more aggressive with his takedowns than someone like Rasulov, and once on top, he works for ground-and-pound or submission opportunities.

If he can get Cezary down early and keep him there, Oleksiejcuk’s striking edge becomes irrelevant. For me, the path to victory is much clearer for Haig.

Unless Cezary lands the perfect punch before the takedown comes, Haig should be able to grind him out and potentially finish on the mat. At +250, Haig is a live underdog and the side worth playing.

Samuel Silva -185 v Mandel Nallo +160

Samuel Silva comes in as the favorite here, and while the line looks fair, it’s not one I’d be eager to bet. Mandel Nallo brings some experience from his Bellator run, but at 33 years old, it feels like his best days are behind him.

He’s beaten a few low-level opponents recently, but before that suffered several losses in Bellator. His strengths are clinch work, submissions, and effective leg kicks, but again, much of that success has come against weaker competition.

Silva, on the other hand, is fresh off a five-round battle with Hardwick, who is a very strong fighter, and Silva looked solid in that fight.

His striking showed promise, though his striking defense was questionable, and that remains his biggest liability.

Against a crafty veteran like Nallo, that could leave openings. Still, Silva’s volume, pace, and higher-level recent competition give him the edge here. The pick is Silva, but with the defensive concerns and the price, it’s a pass from a betting standpoint.

Eduardo Henrique -145 vs An Tuan Ho +125

Don’t blink in this one — both Eduardo Henrique and An Tuan Ho are dynamic strikers who thrive in chaos, and it’s hard to see this fight going the distance.

Henrique’s striking is powerful and efficient, with devastating knockout ability, and he’s shown the toughness to eat shots in order to close the distance. His last fight also displayed solid takedown defense, giving him an edge if Ho tries to mix things up.

An Tuan Ho is no slouch, though. His only career loss came on the Contender Series against Kavanagh, and Henrique has a striking style that’s just as dangerous as Kavanagh’s.

Ho can’t afford even a moment of sloppy defense, because Henrique has the timing and power to find the chin and end things quickly.

Ultimately, while both men bring knockout potential, Henrique’s experience and heavier firepower tilt the matchup in his favor. Expect fireworks early, but the pick is Henrique to land the cleaner, more decisive shots and get the win.

David Mgoyan -210 vs Tommy McMillen +180

David Mgoyan comes in as the betting favorite, and while the upside is clear, there are still some questions around his experience.

At just 21 years old, Mgoyan has shown solid takedowns, legitimate power when he connects, and the ability to push a fast pace.

The concerns with him are mostly his youth and potential vulnerabilities — particularly his struggles with leg kicks, which more seasoned opponents could look to exploit.

Tommy McMillen is a bit of a wild card. There isn’t a ton of film available on him, but he’s demonstrated dangerous submissions thanks to his long legs and arms.

The concern, however, is whether his striking is developed enough to keep Mgoyan honest on the feet. If McMillen can’t threaten standing, Mgoyan’s pressure and wrestling may eventually wear him down.

Ultimately, Mgoyan’s training situation tips the scales here. He works with American Top Team and trains alongside Armen Tsarukyan, which speaks volumes about his development and preparation.

If ATT is backing him, the expectation is that he’s on the right trajectory. Given the skillset and the high-level camp behind him, the lean is with Mgoyan to get the win, though McMillen’s submission game makes him a live dog if the fight hits the mat in the right positions.

Dana White’s Contender Series Event: Jack Condon +325 vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani -500

Jean Paul Lebosnoyani enters this matchup as the clear favorite, and it’s easy to see why. He’s going to have the speed advantage on the feet, with sharper, cleaner striking and far better movement.

While his record looks strong, I don’t think he’s faced elite competition yet, but the tools he brings are legitimate — he’s fast, shifty, and carries enough power to end fights.

Jack Congdon, on the other hand, is as tough as they come. He’s shown the ability to eat a lot of damage, keep pushing forward, and fight through adversity.

However, while he has good power, it tends to be predictable and not well set up. His style is a bit clunky, and against a striker with Lebosnoyani’s speed and timing, it’s a real liability.

In the end, Congdon’s toughness may keep him in the fight for a while, but the skill gap is hard to ignore. Lebosnoyani’s speed, footwork, and striking versatility should prove too much, and he has the power to finish if the opportunities open up.

This looks like a comfortable win for Lebosnoyani, and I don’t see many paths for Congdon to pull the upset.

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