Dodgers vs Astros Prediction and Betting Preview | July 4
Friday’s Dodgers vs Astros contest features two starting pitchers that could each use a bounce-back performance. Lance McCullers Jr. and Ben Casparius each had a rough outing in their last appearance, but the GoldSheet team explains why they believe oddsmakers have set tonight’s total a little too high.
Dodgers vs Astros Betting Preview
| Time | 9:10pm ET / 6:10pm PT |
| Stadium | Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles |
| Weather | Clear with a Light Breeze Blowing Out to Right-Center |
| MoneyLine | Los Angeles -180 / Houston +155 |
| Total | 9.5 Runs (o EV / u -120) |
| RunLine | Los Angeles -1.5 (+110) / Houston +1.5 (-130) |
Houston Astros
Lance McCullers Jr. had been pitching well on his road back from injury, but that road took a detour in his last start against the Cubs when he allowed three home runs in 3.1 innings. Prior to that, he was showing plenty of optimistic signs and his strikeout rate is exactly where it was prior to injury.
Houston’s bullpen has a 3.31 ERA this season (No. 3 in MLB) with a .287 on-base percentage allowed (No. 1). Their 28.8-percent strikeout rate is by-far the best in baseball this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Ben Casparius will be making his first start since June 11 after bouncing between the bullpen and starting rotation. Casparius had been serving as the main guy after Shohei Ohtani’s brief starts, but he has performed well in the starting role when given the opportunity.
In his last start against the Padres, he allowed one run on three hits in 4.0 innings. He enters Friday in the top-25th percentile among pitchers in expected ERA, average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
If you enjoy first inning NRFI/YRFI bets, Casparius has not allowed a base runner, let alone a run, in the first inning this season. He will also have the element of unfamiliarity on his side as no one on the Astros’ roster has faced the 26-year-old before.
The Dodgers have struggled a bit against right-hand pitching in recent weeks. Since June 1, Los Angeles is hitting .243 (No. 20 in MLB) with a .319 on-base percentage (No. 20) and a 108 wRC+ (No. 10).
Dodgers vs Astros Prediction
Both bullpens should be in good shape heading into this one. Even though the Astros just wrapped up a series at Coors Field, they were able to preserve their key arms through that interleague matchup in Denver. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown threw a gem on Wednesday and the Astros only used two relievers in Thursday’s one-run loss.
The same is true on the other side as Dustin May went 7.0 innings for the Dodgers yesterday. No one is working on a back-to-back after Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates comfortably preserved the save in yesterday’s win over the White Sox.
UNDER 9.5 RUNS (-120)
Daily MLB Stat Sheet
GoldSheet’s daily MLB stat sheet provides marquee hitter vs pitcher matchup notes, one traditional free play, one prop play, batting stats in a variety of categories and Ralph Michaels’ first inning trends sheet each morning around 9am ET / 6am PT. Oh yeah, we forgot to mention the price…FREE! Download your copy and check out what’s inside.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, runlines, totals and betting percentages for every MLB game this summer, including tonight’s Dodgers vs Astros contest. Find free MLB picks every day through out the season on our free picks pages.
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