Cincinnati Bearcats vs SMU Mustangs Betting Preview Nov 20
Cincinnati Bearcats vs SMU Mustangs Predictions
WagerTalk college football handicapper Las Vegas Cris offers his Cincinnati Bearcats vs SMU Mustangs betting preview for Saturday, November 20. At the time of posting, the Bearcats are an 11.5-point home favorite over the Mustangs with the total sitting at 65 points.
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Cincinnati Bearcats vs SMU Mustangs Predictions
- Cincinnati Bearcats -11.5 vs SMU Mustangs
- Total: 65 Points
- Since 2019, SMU is 5-1 against the spread as an underdog.
- Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
Somewhat quietly, SMU stands at 8-2. They started 7-0, but then lost a heartbreaker at Houston when they inexplicably kicked deep to the Cougars with only a few seconds remaining on the clock. That kick was returned for a TD, leading to a seven-point loss. Teams that lose their first game late in the season often have a letdown the very next week, and that’s exactly what happened, as they lost by three at Memphis before righting the ship just last week with a 55-28 victory over UCF. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is still in the NCAA playoff mix, sitting at 10-0. Have they felt the pressure of breaking through the power five school barrier? No doubt, as they have lost their last four games vs. the spread, and have looked anything but the team that steamrolled through games one through six, including an impressive eleven-point win at Notre Dame. Breaking this down further, the combined point differential of their last four games is 131-80, or plus 51. The combined number of points they were favored by was plus 111.
Let’s break down the stat sheet for each team. SMU finally returned their top RB last week (14 carries for 97 yards) vs. UCF and that made their offense even more dangerous. QB Mordecai is hitting 70% of his passes with a 37-10 TD to interception ratio. Only Memphis (25) has held the Mustangs below 31 points. Four WR’s/TE’s have combined for 182 receptions, and two have NFL ability. The defense has played above expectations vs. the run, and on my personal expectations vs. the pass. Defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt is one of the elite coordinators in the business, someone who has had successful stints at many NCAA schools, turning defenses around. SMU still allows too many splash passing plays, but the unit is better than it has been in the past. They currently have a solid sack ratio of 26-11, a decent kicker, and despite the kickoff return allowed vs. Houston, a solid overall return game ratio.
Cincinnati’s rushing stat sheet is exactly on my preseason projections. It’s a solid ratio with a stout RB and a mobile QB. Desmond Ridder is being strongly considered as a first round NFL draft pick, and he does have the experience plus the mobility to fit nicely into today’s NFL. Cincy has scored 28 times via the rush and 23 times via the pass, so they can be a nightmare to defend. Where they excel is via the turnover ratio, as they are at +13, with Ridder very careful with the football. The other area where they excel is in the secondary, where at least one NFL prospect resides. Allowing 52.4% in today’s football is not easy. Notre Dame was just 23-46. UCF was 16-27. Clearly however, this will be the best pass attack and best QB they will have faced. If Mordecai is careful with the football, then SMU will have some success through the air, as Cincy will have to respect their run game. Cincy has an elite return game defense, but field goals have been problematic. They are 4-5 of late, and have used three different guys.
Pure rushing data can’t be used here, as these are more pass types, but the latest numbers give SMU the edge in this category (32-24 ATS). Cincy’s last four opponents will not finish the season with winning records. SMU is a step up in class, so if Cincy continues to feel the pressure of being undefeated then they are vulnerable to being outright upset in this spot. I make this game 37-30 Cincinnati so my recommendation is to take SMU plus the points.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs SMU Mustangs Analysis from The GoldSheet
College Football Daily
SMU presents one of Cincinnati’s last remaining tests this season. Can the Mustangs provide any resistance on the Bearcats’ march to an undefeated season? Join Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Bryan Leonard and Adam Trigger for College Football Daily as we preview the marquee College Football Week 12 matchups, including Pitt vs Virginia; Cincinnati vs SMU; and Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State.
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