Mississippi State vs Kentucky College Basketball Predictions and Odds Jan 25
Mississippi State vs Kentucky Betting Preview
WagerTalk college basketball capper Tony Finn offers his Mississippi State vs Kentucky betting preview for Tuesday, January 25. At the time of posting, the Wildcats have opened as a 9.5-point home favorite over the road Bulldogs, with the total sitting at 142 points.
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| Tuesday, January 25 | SEC Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Mississippi State +9.5 vs Kentucky Wildcats |
| Total: | 142 Points |
| Game Time: | 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT |
| Arena: | Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY |
| TV: | ESPN |
Mississippi State vs Kentucky Analysis
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-5, 4-2 SEC) are in Lexington on Tuesday night for a date with the Kentucky Wildcats (15-4, 5-2 SEC). Coach John Calipari aims to bounce back from Saturday’s 80-71 loss to the then-No. #2 Auburn Tigers extend the program’s 12-0 home mark. Coach Ben Howland leads the Mississippi State men’s basketball team, and the Bulldogs earned an impressive 78-60 win over Ole Miss on Saturday. However, both teams enter tonight’s ESPN featured matchup with injury concerns.
Kentucky’s pair of top-of-the-key ball-handlers both left the loss to Auburn on Saturday with injuries. After playing just nine minutes, Ty Ty Washington didn’t return after suffering an ankle sprain. In addition, Sahvir Wheeler, a former four-star Georgia recruit who led the Southeastern Conference and ranked in the top five nationally in assists per game in 2020-21, who suffered head trauma in an early January loss to the LSU Tigers, was injured late in Saturday’s contest versus Auburn.
Mississippi State’s Tolu Smith, the SEC’s reigning rebound champion, suffered a dislocated knee with just over a minute left in Saturday’s win over Ole Miss. According to the school’s athletic department, a Sunday’s MRI revealed no structural damage but Smith’s status for tonight’s game is questionable.
Bulldogs Arrive at Rupp Arena Handicapped
Life without forward Tolu Smith isn’t new to the Mississippi State basketball program.
“We’ve played that way more than we’ve played with Tolu,” coach Howland spoke about in the team’s Monday press conference.
Smith has been active in eight games this season while missing 10. According to the training staff of the Bulldogs, Smith will miss the next two to three weeks with his latest knee injury suffered against Ole Miss. Smith’s presence on the court will be missed much more than his 13.3 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.
Forward Garrison Brooks will move to the center spot and present some challenges for opponents as a stretch-5 option for the team. In addition, moving Brooks to the No. #5 will result in Cameron Matthews seeing an increase in minutes at the power-4 spot rather than playing a true wing.
Kentucky Expected to Return a Trio of Injured Players
On Monday, Calipari remarked on his call-in show that Kellan Grady and Davion Mintz ran the point in yesterday’s practice. The injuries to Ty Ty Washington and point guard Sahvir Wheeler are no small matter.
Coach Cal revealed Shaedon Sharpe is practicing with his teammates. Calipari failed to update the injuries to Washington and Wheeler on his call-in show but later did his woe-is-us bit to the Lexington press that the team’s top two ball-handlers were unknowns for tonight’s game.
The Kentucky bench boss did signal that Sharpe’s minutes would be limited when he returned to active duty. Washington’s injury is considered the more serious of the two point-men. As for Wheeler, Calipari’s tone when discussing the team’s two primary ball handlers offered more promise for Wheeler to dress and start than Washington.
Mississippi State vs Kentucky Prediction
The Bulldogs are 0-4 against the spread across their last four road games, while the Wildcats check in with a 6-2 against the spread mark as a favorite in their last eight games. The Over is 4-1 across the Bulldogs’ last five games as a road underdog, with the Over cashing at a 5-1 clip in Wildcats’ last six games as a home favorite. The two SEC rivals’ last six meetings have found the bookmakers’ closing favorite covering in five of the six contests.
Kentucky, the nation’s leading team in rebound margin, had six offensive boards and 12 second-chance points by halftime against a well-balanced and capable Auburn Tigers troupe. However, Auburn had issues with the Wildcats’ backcourt successfully crashing the boards.
The Bulldogs have not been consistent on either end of the floor in games without Smith. And while the depth of Mississippi State has several big bodies to fill his spot on the court, they are not the same animal as Smith, one of the best frontcourt scorers and rebounders in Division I.
WagerTalk’s pick to click is a play on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points.
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Mississippi State vs Kentucky Preview from GoldSheet
The Wildcats are hoping to avoid consecutive losses for the first time this season after falling at Auburn on Saturday afternoon. John Calipari has managed to win all three times his team has been in this situation following losses, posing routs over Robert Morris, North Carolina and Georgia after falling to Duke, Notre Dame and LSU. Kentucky has posted an average margin of victory of 28 points per bounce-back game, so there’s no reason to believe it won’t continue that trend at Rupp Arena with Mississippi State in town.
The ‘Cats have owned the series with the Bulldogs, scratching out a 92-19 record over 111 career meetings. They may have to add to that gaudy record without star freshman guard TyTy Washington, although that hasn’t been determined. Washington left due to an ankle sprain suffered at Auburn with Kentucky leading after a strong start but might be able to suit up.
Point guard Sahvir Wheeler is likely to be out there despite dealing with some neck soreness that has been an issue the past few weeks. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is going to be without 6-foot-10 junior Tolu Smith, which means transfers Garrison Brooks (North Carolina), Shakeel Moore (NC State) and D.J. Jeffries (Memphis) will need to step up at Rupp to help make the most of the defensive breakdowns Iverson Molinar’s speed can cause.
Kentucky would love to have Wheeler and Washington available to help hang with the Mississippi State guard, who was shut down at Florida in the closing minutes. Ben Howland’s team has yet to win a true road game and will face a ‘Cats squad that should have at least one if not both of their backcourt playmakers and is likely to get a big game from shooter Kellan Grady since the Bulldogs struggle to defend the 3-ball, ranking 13th in the league in 3-point percentage defense so far in SEC games. Lay the points and ride Kentucky. Play Kentucky.
NCAAB Stat Sheet
Each day, WagerTalk handicapper Ralph Michaels puts together his College Basketball Stat Sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Tuesday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s Mississippi State vs Kentucky contest. 
Happy Hour Tip-Off Show
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College Basketball Betting Basics
College basketball totals can be one of the most frustrating, yet rewarding, things to handicap in the sports betting sphere. WagerTalk’s Kelly Stewart and Drew Martin help you navigate the finer points of how to handicap college basketball totals. In this round of college basketball betting tips, Drew and Kelly break down five key factors for betting college basketball, including pace of play, changes in tempo and efficiency stats.
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