Fresno State vs Nevada College Basketball Predictions and Odds Jan 21
Fresno State vs Nevada Betting Preview
WagerTalk college basketball capper Tony Finn offers his Fresno State vs Nevada betting preview for Friday, January 21. At the time of posting, the Wolfpack have opened as a 1.5-point home favorite over the road Bulldogs, with the total sitting at 137 points.
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| Friday, January 21 | Mountain West Conference Basketball Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Fresno State Bulldogs +1.5 vs Nevada Wolfpack |
| Total: | 137 Points |
| Game Time: | 11:00pm ET / 8:00pm PT |
| Arena: | Lawlor Events Center in Reno, NV |
| TV: | FS1 |
Fresno State vs Nevada Analysis
The Fresno State Bulldogs (13-4, 5th in Mountain West) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (8-7, 6th in Mountain West) are the Friday night college basketball betting board finale. The pair of Mountain West Conference rivals square off at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno at 11:00pm ET. Nevada is 8-7 overall with a 5-3 home record, 1-3 on the road, and 2-2 in conference play. The Bulldogs 13-4 overall record includes a perfect 9-0 mark on their home floor, 2-4 as a visitor, and 3-1 in league play.
The Bulldogs have the best against the spread record in the MWC at 12-4. Fresno is 3-3 against the spread on the road and 2-3 against the spread as a road underdog. Contrary to the Fresno Bulldogs, the Wolf Pack are the least successful MWC program against the spread with a 4-10 overall mark across the season. At home and as the home betting favorite, Nevada is just 1-6 against the spread in both categories.
Fresno State is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 overall lined games, while the Wolf Pack are 0-6 against the spread in their previous six overall matchups. The betting favorite when these two matchup is 6-2 against the spread across the last eight meetings.
When this betting preview went to press, sharp money had shown an interest in the over-under at the Circa Race and Sportsbook in Las Vegas. The interest in this MWC matchup was in the over-under, moving the opening number from 135.5 to 137 points.
Bulldogs the Most Balanced of the Mountain West Clan
After a three-game COVID pause, the Bulldogs have won three straight. Fresno State overcame a 16-point deficit and defensively dominated the Aggies of Utah State earned a 61-54 win for their ninth consecutive home victory.
Fresno State held Utah State to 23 points in the second half. The victory stretched the Bulldogs conference mark to 3-1 in Mountain West play.
The Bulldogs rank 32nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according to KenPom. In raw surface numbers, Fresno State is the top scoring defense in Division I allowing 56.5 points per game. The ‘Dogs have a 106.5 offensive efficiency rating in conference play, are the third-best in the ten-team league, and play at the slowest tempo among the league clan.
7’0″ center Orlando Robinson leads the Bulldogs in scoring (19.3), rebounds (8.7), blocks (1.6), and has the second-most assists (2.8) per game.
Fresno State surrounds Robinson with a four-guard lineup. Anthony Holland is listed as the team’s power forward. Still, the 6’5″ junior is averaging 9.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game and is the most accurate of the perimeter players for the Bulldogs, hitting 47.6% from the 3-line.
Guards Isaiah Hill (8.4 ppg), Jordan Campbell (7.6), and Leo Colimerio (5.1) close out the first five for Fresno State.
Alford’s Roster Can’t Outrun its Defensive Liabilities
Grant Sherfield had 20 points and eight assists for the Wolf Pack (8-7, 2-2) in the 77-67 loss to the Wyoming Cowboys on Monday night in Reno. Starting center Will Baker added 12 points while guards Kenan Blackshear and guard Desmond Cambridge Jr. scored 11 and six points respectively in the home defeat.
The Wolf Pack lean on Sherfield, his 20 points per game, and his sharpshooting 37.8 percent accuracy from beyond the arc. Baker is a stretch-five who shoots 42.9 percent from distance.
While surface numbers suggest that the Wolf Pack are a high-scoring and uptempo group attempting to outrun their opponents, this Nevada core is a pedestrian bunch by all measures. They rank 94th in KenPom’s Adjusted Efficiency on offense and 126th with a 100.9 rating on the defensive side of the floor.
The Pack shoots a mere 31.6 percent from beyond the arc, ranking them 260th in Division I.
Fresno State vs Nevada Prediction
The Bulldogs of Fresno State are considered a defense-first squad with a scheme that starts and stops with the squad’s performance on the stop-side of the floor. But, in truth, while Fresno is the top-rated defensive in the league, they rank as the third-best offensive in the league in adjusted efficiency.
With the Wolf Pack of Nevada surrendering 75.5 points per game, ranking the squad 318th of 358 Division I programs, their record speaks to who the team is, just as the Bulldogs 13-4 mark speaks to the top side of Fresno State’s best on game night.
WagerTalk pick to click is a play on the visiting Fresno State Bulldogs over the Nevada Wolf Pack in a pick’em Mountain West affair.
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Fresno State vs Nevada Preview from GoldSheet
The Wolf Pack are hoping to avoid slipping under .500 in Mountain West play but it’s starting to look like Steve Alford’s team is what their record says it is, a team that could slip to 8-8 if unsuccessful against Fresno. The Bulldogs are a gaudy 13-4 and will officially join the top group of title contenders and NCAA Tournament hopefuls if they don’t fall back to the middle of the pack with a setback in Reno.
That makes this a huge swing game for Justin Hutson’s Bulldogs, who rank third in the nation in scoring defense (56.5) and play at one of the slowest paces. 7-footer Orlando Robinson is averaging 19.3 points and 8.7 rebounds and has a streak of three double-doubles in a row going. In a pair of January losses at Lawlor Events Center last year, Robinson averaged 15 points and seven rebounds, so he’ll be hoping for a better showing in his home state.
Fresno won’t have key transfer Jemarl Baker, who has had stints at Kentucky and Arizona, since he suffered a knee injury last month and might miss the rest of the season. In his absence, guards Isaiah Hill, Anthony Holland and Jordan Campbell have stepped up and will need to hang with Nevada guards Grant Sherfield and Desmond Cambridge, who combine for 35 points per game.
Highly-touted 7-footer Will Baker will be on Robinson duty, so these teams should be evenly matched for most of this one. Both teams shoot free-throws well, so this should ultimately come down to whether Robinson can continue to show off his improvement, ultimately taking the game over when at winning time. He’s been playing at a high level and looks ready to take the next step, so we’ll back Fresno State to take down Nevada in what’s essentially a pick’em. Play Fresno State
NCAAB Stat Sheet
Each day, WagerTalk handicapper Ralph Michaels puts together his College Basketball Stat Sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Friday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s Fresno State vs Nevada contest.
Happy Hour Tip-Off Show
Get your daily fix of college hoops betting information with Joe Raineri and a rotating panel of handicapping guests. The Happy Hour Tip-Off Show will broadcast Monday through Friday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT. Pull up a barstool and join us as we break down tonight’s college basketball card, including this Fresno State vs Nevada clash, from a sports betting perspective.
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