Fresno State vs Boise State College Basketball Predictions and Odds Jan 28
Fresno State vs Boise State Betting Preview
WagerTalk College Basketball handicapper Tony Finn offers his Fresno State vs Boise State analysis. At the time of posting, the Broncos have opened as a 2-point road favorite over the visiting Bulldogs, with the total sitting at 119 points.
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| Friday, January 28 | Mountain West Conference Basketball Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Fresno State Bulldogs +2 vs Boise State Broncos |
| Total: | 119 Points |
| Game Time: | 11:00pm ET / 8:00pm PT |
| Arena: | Save Mart Center in Fresno, CA |
| TV: | FS1 |
Fresno State vs Boise State Analysis
The best of the Mountain West Conference is set for a game of Friday Night Lights, basketball style. The visiting Boise State Broncos (16-4, 7-0 MWC) and host Fresno State Bulldogs (14-5, 4-2 MWC) will meet at Save Mart Center tonight with tipoff at 8:00pm PT for the second and final matchup between the rivals in regular-season play.
The downtown Las Vegas Circa Race and Sportsbook opened Boise as 1-point road favorites on the overnight line. However, that 1-point handicap was moved one-point this morning after a respected sharp group pushed significant paper across the Sportsbook counter backing the visiting Broncos. As a result, circa has the Broncos as a 2-point favorite for tonight’s late tilt in Fresno. In addition, the over-under in the contest underwent an early morning adjustment at Circa group, shifting from the opening 117.5 to a now 199.
The Broncos enter this Friday night Fresno, CA, in control of their conference destiny. The only undefeated program in league play earned a pair of hard-fought conference wins the past week. Boise defended at an elite level in a 42-37 victory over the Aztecs last Saturday in San Diego and followed the impressive performance by taking down the Cowboys of Wyoming in a home court 65-62 win on Tuesday night.
Despite defeating the Aztecs in San Diego and earning a win over KenPom’s No. 54 Wyoming this past Tuesday, while owning a perfect 7-0 league mark in the Mountain standings, the Broncos are the third-best MWC team, according to KenPom. Boise is positioned behind the No. 35 Colorado State Rams, and 39th ranked Aztecs on the KenPom power chart. In addition, the Broncos are the 40th ranked KenPom Division 1 team.
Fresno resides at No. 59 per KenPom and is led by NBA-ready seven-foot big man Orlando Robinson. However, the Bulldogs’ leading scorer and rebounder missed most of Tuesday’s 65-60 Fresno State win at New Mexico after spraining his right ankle early in the first 20-minute stanza.
Broncos HC Hutson Calls Orlando Robinson Game-Time Decision
Boise State is 7-1 against the spread across the program’s last eight road games and 8-3 against the number in the team’s last 11 games overall. The Broncos are 4-1 to the Under as the betting favorite in their previous five games.
The Broncos were the winners of the first game between the two. The victory came in Boise, in which the Broncos led from start to finish in a 65-55 final. Boise allowed a late run by Fresno State when the first five began focusing on using the clock instead of running their offense. The Bulldogs executed a 17-5 scoring advantage in the final 6:12 of the game and, for one possession, held a two-point lead before Boise took control and registered the double-digit victory.
There’s no misconception about why the Broncos are a perfect 7-0 in conference play. Boise is a defense-first squad, and the team’s scheme fits the roster skill-set. KenPom rates the Broncos as the eighth-most efficient defense in Division I hoops. Boise plays technically sound defense. As a group, they invite the opposing backcourt to drive to the paint while taking away the drivers passing lanes to eliminate shots from the 3-line while the length of the Broncos front court efficiently protects the rim.
WagerTalk’s Fresno Contacts Label Robinson a Go
Fresno State Bulldogs are 8-0 against the spread in the team’s previous eight home games but a porous 2-7 against the spread across their last nine games when the team opens as a home underdog. They are 7-1 to the Under in the previous eight games that bookmakers positioned Fresno as a home underdog.
Robinson has dominated the dialogue when discussing tonight’s matchup between the two teams. Robinson returned for the last nine minutes of the game versus New Mexico after the training staff wrapped the injured ankle. Still, Robinson produced obvious evidence that the injury was causing him distress.
In the media session yesterday, head coach Justin Hutson told the press that Orlando’s status for Friday’s game was a game-time decision.
“Well, he’s getting healthy; if you saw him at the end (of the New Mexico game) when he came back in, he was very hobbled, so he didn’t practice yesterday,” Hutson animatedly told the press. “We’ll probably hold him out a little bit today (Thursday), maybe walkthrough, and then we’ll see how he is game time (Friday night).”
“I’m sure he’ll give it a shot, but we don’t know exactly where he’s at as far as percentage,” added Hutson
Robinson finished with 11 points on 4-of-7 shooting from the field with four rebounds and three assists in 15 minutes of the win over New Mexico.
Guard Anthony Holland and his 9.7 point per game average is the Bulldogs’ second-leading scorer. Fresno has four other contributing player personnel that all average more than 6.7 ppg. The depth of the Bulldogs is evident in the team’s statistical charts. Fresno rosters eight players that average five points or more per game.
Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction
While Boise is the better defense, both Mountain programs operate similar styles on game night. Like Boise, neither team allows uncontested shots at the rim. The Broncs and the Dogs attempt to run the opposing backcourt off the 3-point line and force the opponent to take shots off the dribble rather than via an assist.
Depending on who the Bulldogs are squaring up against determines a large percentage of coach Huston and his staff’s decisions on how they defend. The Bulldogs concede open jump shots and allow the largest percentage of points against from behind the arc.
Fresno State is user-dependent on a healthy Robinson in the post. His ability to create open shots for the Bulldogs backcourt with the offense working inside out is critical to Fresno’s success.
Boise’s last two victories, at San Diego State and home versus Wyoming, where both games that the Broncos could have lost. They were hard-fought and both physically and mentally draining. The Boise players have been overworked the last two weeks. Tonight’s game is the Broncos’ seventh in 17 days.
The Bulldogs finally earn a quality win and do so at home. The WagerTalk pick to click is a play on Fresno State plus the points.
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College Basketball Stat Sheet
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