Bills vs Jets Prediction, Picks and Odds

Buffalo has won and covered each of the last five meetings with the Jets by an average margin of 20.4 points, but this year’s matchup comes with a twist. This Bills vs Jets prediction looks at a Buffalo team playing the second leg of a road back-to-back on a short week, facing a New York offense that has been exceptional at the start of games before collapsing late.

The Bills’ last two wins came against backup quarterbacks, masking a defense that allowed 28.5 points per game in the six contests before that. With Buffalo laying 8.5 points, is the market giving the Jets enough credit? Before you place your bet, check out our latest NFL picks, then dig into the complete breakdown below.

Quick Picks and Prediction for Bills vs Jets

Moneyline Pick: Buffalo Bills
Spread Pick: New York Jets +8.5
Total Pick: Over 50.5
Projected Final Score: Bills 30, Jets 24

Odds and Line Movement for Bills vs Jets

Buffalo opened at -7.5 and has bounced between -7 and -8.5 all week, currently sitting at -8.5. The latest splits show 58% of the money on the Jets but 83% of the tickets on the Bills. The total opened at 51.5, dipped as low as 49.5, and now rests at 50.5, with 59% of the money and 68% of the tickets on the Under. Follow every adjustment through our live odds.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Buffalo Bills	-7½ (-115)	Over 51½ (-105)
New York Jets	+7½ (-105)	Under 51½ (-115)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Buffalo Bills	-8½ (-108)	Over 50½ (-118)
New York Jets	+8½ (-112)	Under 50½ (-102)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	Buffalo	N.Y. Jets
11/11	-8½ (-108)	+8½ (-112)
11/11	-7½ (-112)	+7½ (-108)
11/10	-8½ (-110)	+8½ (-110)
11/10	-7 (-115)	+7 (-105)
11/09	-8½ (-110)	+8½ (-110)
11/09	-7½ (-110)	+7½ (-110)
11/09	-7 (-110)	+7 (-110)
11/09	-7 (-112)	+7 (-108)
11/09	-7½ (-105)	+7½ (-115)
11/09	-7½ (-110)	+7½ (-110)
11/09	-7½ (-115)	+7½ (-105)

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under
11/11	50½ (-118)	50½ (-102)
11/11	50½ (-115)	50½ (-105)
11/11	50½ (-118)	50½ (-102)
11/10	50½ (-115)	50½ (-105)
11/10	50½ (-105)	50½ (-115)
11/10	50½ (-112)	50½ (-108)
11/09	49½ (-110)	49½ (-110)
11/09	50½ (-115)	50½ (-105)
11/09	51½ (-105)	51½ (-115)
11/08	51½ (-112)	51½ (-108)
11/08	51½ (-105)	51½ (-115)

Bills vs Jets Key Matchups and Handicap

Bills Dominance in the Series

Buffalo has won and covered each of the last five meetings in this AFC East rivalry, winning those games by an average of 20.4 points. That history is a big reason the Bills are laying a significant number on the road. These teams will also meet again in Week 18 to close the regular season, so this is the first of two important divisional matchups.

Buffalo on a Short Week After Minnesota

Buffalo is operating on a short week after winning in Minnesota on Monday night, and this is the second leg of a road back-to-back. The Bills’ 23-6 victory was by far their lowest-scoring game of the season. Buffalo was missing its starting left tackle and guard, which exposed Josh Allen to plenty of pressure against the Vikings’ super-aggressive defense. That should be less of an issue against a Jets defense that has allowed 26 or more points in each of its last four games.

BUF Defense Benefiting From Backup Quarterbacks

Buffalo’s defense deserves credit for winning in a tough road environment, but the result against Minnesota had more to do with Carson Wentz’s struggles than anything else. Over the last two weeks, the Bills have faced Wentz, who was making his first appearance in two months, and Baltimore’s Joe Fagnano, who was making his first career start. In the six games before that, Buffalo’s defense allowed an average of 28.5 points per game, a much more accurate reflection of what this unit has been.

Jets Fast Starts, Fading Finishes

New York has dropped four straight games, most recently falling 35-12 at Kansas City. Once again, the Jets came in with a strong offensive game plan, putting together four scoring drives in the first half, all of which ended in field goals. However, they failed to make the necessary adjustments, and the Chiefs won the second half 21-0. Over the last three weeks, New York has failed to cover the spread by an average of 9.2 points per game.

New York Defense Leaking Points

The Jets’ defense has allowed 26 or more points in each of the last four games. Against a Buffalo offense that should enjoy better protection than it had in Minnesota, Allen is likely to find plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. That vulnerability is a key reason the Bills remain favored by more than a touchdown.

Jets Offense Built to Move the Ball

New York’s offense has consistently arrived with sharp game plans. Against the Raiders and Chiefs, the Jets scored on nine of their 11 first-half drives, and one of the two misses came on a botched field goal attempt. With Buffalo on a short week and playing its second straight road game, the Jets should be able to move the ball against a Bills defense that was allowing 28.5 points per game before facing two backup quarterbacks. The question is whether New York can sustain that success for a full 60 minutes.

Betting Trends: BUF vs NYJ

Buffalo has won and covered each of the last five meetings with New York.
Buffalo has won those five games by an average of 20.4 points.
New York has lost four straight games, including a 35-12 loss at Kansas City.
New York has failed to cover by an average of 9.2 points per game over the last three weeks.
New York has allowed 26 or more points in each of its last four games.
Buffalo’s 23-6 win at Minnesota was its lowest-scoring game of the season.
Buffalo allowed 28.5 points per game in the six games before facing two backup quarterbacks.
New York scored on nine of 11 first-half drives against the Raiders and Chiefs.
The spread opened at Buffalo -7.5 and sits at -8.5.
The total opened at 51.5 and sits at 50.5, with 59% of the money and 68% of the tickets on the Under.

Key Injuries and Notes: BUF vs NYJ

Buffalo Offensive Line: Missing its starting left tackle and guard in the win at Minnesota.
New York Jets: No notable absences have been reported heading into this matchup.
Schedule Note: Buffalo is playing on a short week after a Monday night game.
Travel Note: This is the second leg of a road back-to-back for Buffalo.
Series Note: These teams meet again in Week 18.

ATS and Total Picks for Buffalo vs New York

Moneyline Pick: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo has dominated this series and faces a Jets defense that has allowed 26 or more points in four straight games. The Bills should find a way to win, even on a short week.

Spread Pick: New York Jets +8.5

The Jets’ offense has been effective in the first half of recent games, and Buffalo’s defense is not as strong as its last two results suggest. With the Bills on a short week and playing their second straight road game, New York should be able to move the ball and keep this within the number, provided it can hold up in the second half. More than a touchdown is a lot to lay in this spot.

Total Pick: Over 50.5

The Jets have allowed 26 or more points in four straight games, and Buffalo’s defense allowed 28.5 points per game before its matchups with two backup quarterbacks. New York has also been scoring early, putting points on the board on nine of its last 11 first-half drives. With both offenses positioned to succeed, this game has the ingredients to clear the total.

Bills vs Jets Best Bets

Best Bet: New York Jets +8.5 (-112)
Total Bet: Over 50.5 (-118)
Key Edge: Buffalo on a short week and second straight road game against a Jets offense scoring on nine of its last 11 first-half drives
Market Signal: 58% of the spread money on New York despite 83% of the tickets on Buffalo

Final Score Prediction for Bills vs Jets

Buffalo should continue its dominance in this series, with Allen taking advantage of a struggling Jets defense. However, New York’s offense should find success early against a fatigued Bills team, keeping the margin inside the number while both offenses push the total over.