Vikings vs Packers Prediction, Picks and Odds

The spread on this NFC North rivalry has collapsed from six points to three in barely a day, and a familiar face may be the reason why. This Vikings vs Packers prediction centers on Kirk Cousins’ expected return to Minneapolis, a Green Bay team suddenly without its lead running back, and a Minnesota defense that already embarrassed the Packers once this season.

Green Bay is a perfect 6-0 against the spread and coming off a 45-27 rout in New England, while the Vikings have won four of the last five meetings, including a 39-22 Week 1 victory. Can Brian Flores’ defense put the clamps on Jordan Love again? Before you lock in your play, check out our full slate of free NFL picks, then dig into the complete breakdown below.

Quick Picks and Prediction for Vikings vs Packers

Moneyline Pick: Green Bay Packers
Spread Pick: Minnesota Vikings +3
Total Pick: Under 42.5
Projected Final Score: Packers 21, Vikings 20

Odds and Line Movement for Vikings vs Packers

Green Bay was dealt as a 6-point road favorite before the spread steadily dropped to -3, even with 70% of the money and 55% of the tickets on the Packers. The total has moved from the 40.5 to 41.5 range up to 42.5, with 99% of the money and 90% of the tickets on the Over. Track every move through our live odds.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Green Bay Packers	-6 (-108)	Over 41½ (-102)
Minnesota Vikings	+6 (-112)	Under 41½ (-118)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Green Bay Packers	-3 (-112)	Over 42½ (-105)
Minnesota Vikings	+3 (-108)	Under 42½ (-115)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	Minnesota	Green Bay
11/11	+3 (-108)	-3 (-112)
11/11	+3 (-105)	-3 (-115)
11/11	+3 (-108)	-3 (-112)
11/11	+3½ (-115)	-3½ (-105)
11/10	+3½ (-110)	-3½ (-110)
11/10	+3½ (-105)	-3½ (-115)
11/10	+4½ (-115)	-4½ (-105)
11/10	+4½ (-110)	-4½ (-110)
11/10	+5½ (-110)	-5½ (-110)
11/10	+5½ (-112)	-5½ (-108)
11/10	+6 (-112)	-6 (-108)

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under
11/11	42½ (-105)	42½ (-115)
11/11	41½ (-112)	41½ (-108)
11/11	41½ (-108)	41½ (-112)
11/10	41½ (-115)	41½ (-105)
11/10	41½ (-110)	41½ (-110)
11/10	41½ (-105)	41½ (-115)
11/10	40½ (-118)	40½ (-102)
11/10	40½ (-112)	40½ (-108)
11/10	40½ (-105)	40½ (-115)
11/10	40½ (-110)	40½ (-110)
11/10	40½ (-112)	40½ (-108)
11/10	41½ (-102)	41½ (-118)

Vikings vs Packers Key Matchups and Handicap

Vikings Own the Recent Series

Minnesota has won four of the last five meetings with Green Bay, including a 39-22 home win in Week 1. Remarkably, the Vikings won that game by 17 points despite being outgained by 180 yards. Minnesota found ways to create big swings with its defense, and that formula could be just as important in the rematch.

Minnesota Defense Under Brian Flores

The NFL was reintroduced to Brian Flores’ defense in the season opener, as the Vikings sacked Jordan Love four times and forced two turnovers. Once Flores and his unit figured out what Love and the Green Bay offense wanted to do, they clamped down. That familiarity should give Minnesota a strong foundation heading into this second meeting.

MIN Quarterback Homecoming: Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins is heading back to Minneapolis to reunite with the team he played for from 2018 to 2023. Aside from a few head-scratching interceptions, Cousins did exactly what was asked of him in Las Vegas, completing 64.1% of his passes while mentoring No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza.

His relationship with Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell dates back to 2017, when O’Connell was on Washington’s coaching staff with Cousins at quarterback. There was no official word as of Tuesday that Cousins will start, but it is reasonable to assume he will. The Minnesota faithful would likely revolt if they had to watch another Carson Wentz start.

Packers Perfect Against the Spread

Green Bay is 5-1 straight up and a perfect 6-0 against the spread after last week’s dominant 45-27 road win in New England as a 3.5-point underdog. The Packers have been one of the most reliable betting teams in the league, which explains why most of the public money continues to back them.

Green Bay Without Josh Jacobs

Running back Josh Jacobs suffered a broken finger in the win over New England and managed just five yards on four carries in that game. He is expected to miss the next three weeks after undergoing surgery. Without Jacobs, Green Bay may lack a reliable change-up if the passing game is not working, which is a major concern against a Flores defense that already disrupted Love once this season.

Packers Totals Trend

The high-scoring 45-27 win in New England broke a string of five consecutive Under results in Green Bay’s games. That sample suggests last week’s shootout may have been more of an exception than the rule, particularly with the Packers’ ground game now compromised.

Betting Trends: Vikings vs Packers

Minnesota has won four of the last five meetings with Green Bay.
Minnesota won the Week 1 meeting 39-22 despite being outgained by 180 yards.
Minnesota sacked Jordan Love four times and forced two turnovers in Week 1.
Green Bay is 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against the spread this season.
Green Bay’s 45-27 win at New England snapped a run of five straight Unders in its games.
The spread opened at Green Bay -6 and has dropped to -3.
Public spread betting shows 70% of the money and 55% of the tickets on Green Bay.
The total has moved up to 42.5, with 99% of the money and 90% of the tickets on the Over.

Key Injuries and Notes: Vikings vs Packers

Green Bay RB Josh Jacobs: Out with a broken finger and expected to miss the next three weeks after surgery.
Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins: Expected to start, though no official announcement had been made as of Tuesday.
Minnesota QB Carson Wentz: Could start if Cousins does not.
Venue: Minneapolis.

ATS and Total Picks for Minnesota vs Green Bay

Moneyline Pick: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has been the more consistent team this season and enters with confidence after a dominant road win. Even without Jacobs, the Packers have enough talent to edge out a Vikings team still settling its quarterback situation.

Spread Pick: Minnesota Vikings +3

Minnesota has won four of the last five meetings and already showed it can control this matchup defensively. Without Jacobs, Green Bay loses its most reliable option to keep Flores’ defense honest. With Cousins expected back under center and a game that projects to be decided by a field goal or less, the Vikings are worth backing with the points.

Total Pick: Under 42.5

Green Bay’s games went under five straight times before last week’s shootout, and the Packers are now without Jacobs. Minnesota’s defense has already shown it can make life difficult for Love. With nearly all of the public money on the Over and the total climbing, the Under offers value.

Vikings vs Packers Best Bets

Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings +3 (-108)
Moneyline: Green Bay Packers
Total Bet: Under 42.5 (-115)
Key Edge: Brian Flores’ defense already sacked Love four times and forced two turnovers in Week 1, and Green Bay is without Josh Jacobs
Market Signal: Spread dropped from -6 to -3 despite most of the public money on Green Bay

Final Score Prediction for Vikings vs Packers

Expect a tight NFC North battle in Minneapolis, with Flores’ defense once again making life difficult for Love and a Green Bay offense missing its top running back. Cousins’ return should provide steady quarterback play for Minnesota, keeping this one within a field goal while the scoring stays under the total.