Montana vs San Francisco Predictions, Picks and Odds

Fourteen newcomers, two returnees, and an undefeated start: San Francisco has rebuilt on the fly, and this Montana vs San Francisco prediction tests whether that brand-new chemistry can hold up against a Montana team that shares the ball as well as anyone. The Montana Grizzlies (1-1) head to War Memorial at the Sobrato Center in San Francisco, California, to take on the San Francisco Dons (2-0) on November 10, 2026, at 10:00 PM ET.

The Dons opened as 10.5-point favorites, were pushed as high as 12.5, and now sit at 11.5 with the total ticking up to 148.5. With both rosters still learning each other’s tendencies, the double-digit number deserves a careful look. Before you bet, browse our full slate of free college basketball picks, then dig into the complete breakdown below.

Quick Picks and Prediction for Montana vs San Francisco

Spread Pick: Montana +11.5
Total Pick: Under 148.5
Projected Final Score: San Francisco 76, Montana 68

Odds and Line Movement for Montana vs San Francisco

San Francisco opened at -10.5, climbed to -11.5, toggled several times between -11.5 and -12.5, and has settled back at -11.5. The total opened at 147.5 and moved up one point to 148.5. Keep an eye on every adjustment with our live odds.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Montana	+10½ (-102)	Over 147½ (-110)
San Francisco	-10½ (-118)	Under 147½ (-110)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Montana	+11½ (-108)	Over 148½ (-108)
San Francisco	-11½ (-112)	Under 148½ (-112)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	Montana	San Francisco
11/10	+11½ (-108)	-11½ (-112)
11/09	+11½ (-102)	-11½ (-118)
11/09	+12½ (-120)	-12½ (+100)
11/09	+12½ (-115)	-12½ (-105)
11/09	+11½ (-108)	-11½ (-112)
11/09	+12½ (-115)	-12½ (-105)
11/09	+11½ (-108)	-11½ (-112)
11/09	+11½ (-118)	-11½ (-102)
11/09	+10½ (-102)	-10½ (-118)

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under
11/09	148½ (-108)	148½ (-112)
11/09	147½ (-115)	147½ (-105)
11/09	147½ (-110)	147½ (-110)

Montana vs San Francisco Key Matchups and Handicap

Montana’s Ball Movement Sets the Tone

Montana opened its 2026-27 season with an 87-69 road loss at Oregon, then bounced back emphatically with a 105-40 rout of Salish Kootenai College. Through two games, the Grizzlies are averaging 87.0 points while allowing 63.5, shooting 52% from the field, and handing out 22.5 assists per game.

That level of passing is the foundation of this rebuilt roster, and it gives Montana a real chance to generate quality looks against a San Francisco defense still building cohesion. Lolo Rudolph has been the engine, averaging 6.0 assists, while Clayton Mpiana provides support on the glass with 7.0 rebounds per contest.

MONT Freshman Semaj Carter Heating Up

Freshman Semaj Carter has made an immediate impact, averaging 13.0 points and knocking down seven of his first 12 three-point attempts. His perimeter shooting gives Montana a weapon that can quickly erase a deficit. The Grizzlies also have scoring depth, as Jalen Brown and Jordan Clark each scored 19 points against Oregon. Brown, however, sat out the Salish Kootenai game, so his status is a key variable heading into this matchup.

San Francisco Unbeaten Behind Balanced Execution

San Francisco opened with a 76-62 win over Radford and followed it with a 79-70 victory over North Dakota State. The Dons are averaging 77.5 points while allowing 66.0, shooting 45% from the floor, and winning with efficient shooting and steady defensive execution. Transfer Ben Oosterbaan leads the way with 16.0 points per game on 57.1% shooting, giving San Francisco a dependable go-to option, while Dylan Bordon runs the offense with 5.5 assists per contest.

USF Frontcourt and Rebounding Edge

San Francisco’s most notable advantage is on the boards. The Dons average 38.5 rebounds per game, and Ismaila Diagne anchors the interior with 8.5 rebounds per contest. Second-chance opportunities and control of the defensive glass should help San Francisco establish an edge, particularly at home. Still, rebounding alone does not guarantee double-digit separation against a team that moves the ball as crisply as Montana.

San Francisco Chemistry With 14 Newcomers

The Dons went through a massive offseason overhaul, adding 14 newcomers and bringing back only two players from last season. Two wins against Radford and North Dakota State are a solid start, but early chemistry remains a legitimate question. Montana has also reshaped its roster, yet its strong ball movement suggests a group already playing well together. With both teams still developing offensive rhythm, extended scoring droughts are a real possibility despite their productive openers.

Grizzlies Firepower vs Dons Home Court

San Francisco’s home-court advantage, rebounding, and balanced scoring should help the Dons take control at War Memorial at the Sobrato Center. However, Montana’s passing efficiency and perimeter shooting, led by Carter’s hot start from deep, give the Grizzlies the tools to stay within striking distance and prevent San Francisco from pulling away.

Betting Trends: MONT vs USF

San Francisco holds an 8-1 advantage in the all-time series.
San Francisco won the previous meeting 71-67 in 2024.
Montana is 1-1 after an 87-69 loss at Oregon and a 105-40 win over Salish Kootenai College.
San Francisco is 2-0 after wins over Radford (76-62) and North Dakota State (79-70).
Montana is shooting 52% from the field and averaging 22.5 assists per game.
San Francisco is shooting 45% from the field and averaging 38.5 rebounds per game.
San Francisco returned only two players from last season and added 14 newcomers.
The spread opened at San Francisco -10.5, reached -12.5, and now sits at -11.5.
The total opened at 147.5 and has moved up to 148.5.

Key Injuries and Notes: MONT vs USF

Montana G Jalen Brown: Missed the Salish Kootenai game after scoring 19 against Oregon; availability worth monitoring.
San Francisco F Ndewedo Newbury: Missed all of last season with an injury; his availability and role remain uncertain.
Additional Notes: No other major injuries have been confirmed for either program.
Venue: War Memorial at the Sobrato Center in San Francisco, California, with tipoff set for 10:00 PM ET on November 10, 2026.

ATS and Total Picks for Montana vs San Francisco

Spread Pick: Montana +11.5

San Francisco is the better rebounding team and has the home floor, but laying 11.5 points with a roster of 14 newcomers is a big ask. Montana’s 22.5 assists per game and Carter’s perimeter shooting give the Grizzlies the offensive tools to keep this game within single digits. The last meeting between these programs was decided by four points, and Montana has enough firepower to stay inside the number.

Total Pick: Under 148.5

Both teams are still building chemistry after major roster turnover, which raises the risk of extended scoring droughts. San Francisco has allowed 66.0 points per game with consistent defensive execution, and the Dons’ control of the glass should limit Montana’s second-chance opportunities. With the total already rising a point, the value sits on the Under.

Montana vs San Francisco Best Bets

Best Bet: Montana +11.5 (-108)
Total Bet: Under 148.5 (-112)
Key Edge: Montana’s 22.5 assists per game against a San Francisco roster with only two returning players
Market Signal: Spread rose from -10.5 to -11.5 and the total ticked up from 147.5 to 148.5, inflating both numbers

Final Score Prediction for Montana vs San Francisco

San Francisco should protect its home floor behind Oosterbaan’s scoring and Diagne’s work on the glass, keeping the Dons unbeaten. Still, Montana’s ball movement and perimeter shooting should keep this game competitive, with both teams’ early-season chemistry questions keeping the scoreboard under the total.