Memphis vs Vanderbilt Predictions, Picks and Odds

Most teams would rather wait until March to see opponents like Iowa State and VCU, but Memphis has already beaten both, and that résumé is the backbone of this Memphis vs Vanderbilt prediction. The Tigers have opened the season with two statement wins, the betting market has noticed, and No. 22 Vanderbilt has watched its point spread shrink from 16.5 all the way down to 14.5.

Penny Hardaway entered the year facing real pressure after a 13-19 campaign, yet his portal-built roster is already showing signs of a resurgence. Can a Commodores team that returns much of last season’s near-Sweet 16 group pull away by two touchdowns, or are the Tigers about to claim another scalp? Before you place your wager, explore our full lineup of college basketball predictions, then dig into the complete breakdown below.

Quick Picks and Prediction for Memphis vs Vanderbilt

Spread Pick: Memphis +14.5
Total Pick: Over 160.5
Projected Final Score: Vanderbilt 84, Memphis 79

Odds and Line Movement for Memphis vs Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt opened as a 16.5-point favorite, but the spread has dropped two full points to -14.5, with 90% of the public money backing Memphis. The total has moved in the other direction, climbing from 158.5 to 160.5. Follow every adjustment with our live odds.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Memphis	+16½ (-105)	Over 158½ (-115)
Vanderbilt	-16½ (-115)	Under 158½ (-105)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Memphis	+14½ (-102)	Over 160½ (-110)
Vanderbilt	-14½ (-118)	Under 160½ (-110)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	Memphis	Vanderbilt
11/10	+14½ (-102)	-14½ (-118)
11/10	+15½ (-102)	-15½ (-118)
11/10	+16½ (-112)	-16½ (-108)
11/09	+16½ (-108)	-16½ (-112)
11/09	+16½ (-110)	-16½ (-110)
11/09	+16½ (-105)	-16½ (-115)

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under
11/09	160½ (-110)	160½ (-110)
11/09	160½ (-115)	160½ (-105)
11/09	160½ (-105)	160½ (-115)
11/09	160½ (-112)	160½ (-108)
11/09	160½ (-108)	160½ (-112)
11/09	159½ (-112)	159½ (-108)
11/09	159½ (-105)	159½ (-115)
11/09	158½ (-115)	158½ (-105)

Memphis vs Vanderbilt Key Matchups and Handicap

Memphis Resurgence Under Penny Hardaway

The heat is on Penny Hardaway. His favorite-son status in the city can only insulate him so much if the Tigers regress the way they did last season, when they slipped to 13-19. Sensing trouble looming, Hardaway attacked the transfer portal aggressively in search of a new mix, and practically everyone contributing to this year’s rotation arrived through that portal haul. Early indicators suggest the overhaul is working, and Memphis may be in the midst of a genuine resurgence.

MEM Portal Jackpot: Jayden Reid

Hardaway might have hit the jackpot with former Northwestern guard Jayden Reid. Through the first two games, Reid is averaging 29 points per game and has looked almost unguardable against two well-regarded opponents. A guard capable of creating his own shot at that level is exactly the kind of weapon that keeps an underdog within reach of a big number, and he will be the focal point of Vanderbilt’s defensive game plan.

Memphis Résumé Already Loaded With Quality Wins

The Tigers came out of the gate with combative wins over favored opponents, knocking off ranked Iowa State in Sioux Falls and beating well-regarded VCU. There may not be another team in the country that has already claimed a pair of scalps of that caliber. For many programs, facing Vanderbilt right around Veterans Day would induce cringes, but Memphis’ victim list suggests the Tigers should not be spooked by the Commodores or their No. 22 ranking.

Vanderbilt Returns Its Core After a Near Sweet 16 Run

Vanderbilt was a nose away from reaching the Sweet 16 last March, and it returns much of the same look this season. The headliner is Wooden Award candidate Tyler Tanner, who is averaging 18.5 points per game and is viewed as a likely first-round NBA draft pick whenever he decides to turn pro. Mark Byington’s team brings continuity and proven experience, two traits that matter in an early-season matchup against a roster still integrating so many new pieces.

VAN Backcourt: Tyler Tanner and Ace Glass

Tanner now has a dangerous new running mate in former Washington State bombardier Ace Glass, who is averaging 14 points per game and has already knocked down six three-pointers through two games. Glass is set to serve as Byington’s designated dagger-thrower, giving Vanderbilt a perimeter threat who can swing momentum in a hurry. Pairing Tanner’s creation with Glass’ shooting gives the Commodores a backcourt capable of trading baskets with Reid and the Tigers all night.

Commodores Ranking Debate

Some in the SEC believe Vanderbilt’s No. 22 ranking is a bit of a slight considering how close it came to a Sweet 16 last season and how much of that group returns. The Commodores are a legitimate team, but legitimacy is not the same as covering a two-touchdown spread against an opponent that has already beaten ranked competition. If Memphis can handle Iowa State and VCU, evidence suggests it should not be out of its depth here.

Betting Trends: MEM vs VAN

Memphis went 13-19 last season.
Memphis opened this season with wins over ranked Iowa State in Sioux Falls and well-regarded VCU.
Memphis won both of those games as an underdog.
Jayden Reid is averaging 29 points per game through two games.
Vanderbilt is ranked No. 22 and came within a whisker of the Sweet 16 last March.
Tyler Tanner is averaging 18.5 points per game, and Ace Glass is averaging 14 with six made threes.
The spread opened at Vanderbilt -16.5 and dropped to -14.5.
Public spread betting shows 90% of the money and 63% of the tickets on Memphis.
The total opened at 158.5 and has climbed to 160.5.

Key Injuries and Notes: MEM vs VAN

Memphis: No notable absences have been reported heading into this matchup.
Vanderbilt: No notable absences have been reported heading into this matchup.
Roster Note: Nearly every Memphis contributor arrived through the transfer portal.
Player Note: Tyler Tanner is a Wooden Award candidate and projected first-round NBA draft pick.
Timing Note: This matchup takes place around Veterans Day.

ATS and Total Picks for Memphis vs Vanderbilt

Spread Pick: Memphis +14.5

The market has already moved two points toward Memphis, and the reasoning is sound. The Tigers have beaten ranked Iowa State and well-regarded VCU, both as underdogs, and Reid has been nearly impossible to guard. Vanderbilt is talented and experienced, but asking it to win by 15 or more against a team with this early-season résumé is too much. Memphis has the firepower to stay within the number.

Total Pick: Over 160.5

This matchup features three high-level scorers: Reid at 29 points per game, Tanner at 18.5, and Glass at 14 with six triples already. When elite guards trade buckets, possessions tend to end quickly and points pile up. The total has climbed two points since opening, and the offensive talent on both sides supports a game that pushes past the number.

Memphis vs Vanderbilt Best Bets

Best Bet: Memphis +14.5 (-102)
Total Bet: Over 160.5 (-110)
Key Edge: Memphis has already beaten ranked Iowa State and VCU behind Jayden Reid’s 29 points per game
Market Signal: Spread dropped from -16.5 to -14.5 with 90% of the public money on Memphis

Final Score Prediction for Memphis vs Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt’s returning core and the Tanner and Glass backcourt should be enough to win this game, but Memphis has already proven it belongs on the floor with quality opponents. Expect Reid to keep the Tigers close in a high-scoring guard duel, with the Commodores prevailing by a margin well short of two touchdowns.