Lions vs Dolphins Predictions, Picks and Odds | November 8, 2026
Two of Miami’s last four games closed with totals below 40, yet this week’s number sits around 50, and the betting market has been pounding the over. There is good reason for it. Detroit’s defense is battered after back-to-back gritty wins over Green Bay and Minnesota, with five key players leaving Sunday’s game injured, while the Lions’ offense averaged 32.8 points per game against lesser opponents earlier this season.
Miami, meanwhile, keeps finding ways to cover even in defeat. This Lions vs Dolphins matchup is shaping up as a points-friendly spot. Before you lock in your NFL predictions, here is the full breakdown of the odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets.
Lions vs Dolphins Quick Picks and Prediction
- Total Pick: Over 50.5 (-115)
- Spread Lean: Dolphins +7 (-112)
- Projected Final Score: Lions 31, Dolphins 25
Odds and Line Movement for Lions vs Dolphins
Detroit opened as a 7-point road favorite, and the spread has not moved off the key number all week, with only the juice shifting between -105 and -115. The Lions have drawn as much as 93% of the money. The total has climbed from 48.5 and 49.5 up to 50.5, with as much as 100% of the money and tickets on the over. Track the latest live odds as Detroit’s injury situation develops.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | -7 (-115) | Over 49.5 (-110) |
| Miami Dolphins | +7 (-105) | Under 49.5 (-110) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | -7 (-108) | Over 50.5 (-115) |
| Miami Dolphins | +7 (-112) | Under 50.5 (-105) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | Detroit | Miami | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05 | -7 (-108) | +7 (-112) | DET 57%, DET 80% |
| 11/03 | -7 (-110) | +7 (-110) | DET 68%, DET 81% |
| 11/02 | -7 (-108) | +7 (-112) | DET 78%, DET 86% |
| 11/02 | -7 (-110) | +7 (-110) | DET 93%, DET 82% |
| 11/01 | -7 (-108) | +7 (-112) | DET 93%, DET 83% |
| 11/01 | -7 (-105) | +7 (-115) | DET 93%, DET 80% |
| 10/27 | -7 (-115) | +7 (-105) | — |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03 | 50.5 (-115) | 50.5 (-105) | OV 94%, OV 62% |
| 11/03 | 50.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | OV 94%, OV 63% |
| 11/02 | 50.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-115) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 11/02 | 49.5 (-115) | 49.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 11/02 | 50.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-115) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 11/02 | 49.5 (-115) | 49.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 11/02 | 49.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 11/02 | 49.5 (-105) | 49.5 (-115) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 11/01 | 48.5 (-115) | 48.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 11/01 | 49.5 (-105) | 49.5 (-115) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 11/01 | 48.5 (-115) | 48.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 11/01 | 49.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
Key Matchups and Handicap: Lions vs Dolphins
This is the first meeting between these teams since Miami earned a 31-27 road win in Detroit in October 2022. The Lions arrive as heavy favorites on a three-game winning streak, but their defense is banged up. The Dolphins are not threatening to win many games, but they have consistently competed for 60 minutes and stayed inside the number. That combination makes the total the most appealing angle.
Lions Winning but Battered on Defense
The Lions have won three straight, but Sunday’s 19-15 home win over Minnesota came at a big price. Linebacker Jack Campbell suffered a neck injury while making a tackle, and on Monday the front office said “preliminary indications are positive,” though he continues to be monitored at a Detroit-area hospital.
Center Cade Mays, edge rusher D.J. Wonnum, cornerback D.J. Reed, and safety Brian Branch all left the game with injuries, and Mays and Branch were already working back from previous long-term injuries. Nearly all of those notable injuries are on the defensive side of the ball.
Detroit Offense Primed for a Big Day
Detroit just finished two hard-fought, gritty defensive battles against Green Bay and Minnesota. Miami’s defense is a far cry from what Jared Goff and the offense faced over the past few weeks. The Lions averaged 32.8 points per game through the first five weeks against inferior opposition, and they should get back into that neighborhood on Sunday.
Dolphins Keep Covering
The Dolphins remain feisty in the betting market, covering the spread in three of their last four games. The lone non-cover in that stretch came on a missed extra point with 45 seconds left against the Bengals. In last week’s loss to the Patriots, Miami scored just before the two-minute warning to sneak in the back door as a seven-point home underdog.
Miami Plays All 60 Minutes
Miami is not threatening to win many of these games, but the Dolphins have shown they will play hard for a full 60 minutes. The same can be said for Dan Campbell’s Lions, which sets up a game where both teams keep their foot on the gas. With Detroit’s defense shorthanded, Miami’s offense should find more success than usual.
DET vs MIA Betting Trends
- Miami won the last meeting 31-27 in Detroit in October 2022.
- Detroit has won three straight games.
- Detroit averaged 32.8 points per game through the first five weeks of the season.
- Miami has covered in three of its last four games.
- Two of Miami’s last four games closed with totals below 40.
- The spread has held at Detroit -7, with the Lions drawing up to 93% of the money.
- The total has risen to 50.5, with as much as 100% of the money on the over.
DET vs MIA Key Injuries and Notes
- Detroit: LB Jack Campbell (neck) is being monitored at a Detroit-area hospital, with preliminary indications positive.
- Detroit: C Cade Mays left Sunday’s game with an injury after returning from a long-term injury.
- Detroit: EDGE D.J. Wonnum and CB D.J. Reed left Sunday’s game with injuries.
- Detroit: S Brian Branch left Sunday’s game after returning from a long-term injury.
- Miami: Scored late to cover as a seven-point home underdog against the Patriots last week.
Lions vs Dolphins ATS and Total Picks
Total Pick: Over 50.5 (-115). The higher total is justified. Detroit’s defense is missing several key pieces after a physical stretch, and the Lions’ offense should feast on a Miami defense that is far weaker than what it has faced recently. Detroit averaged 32.8 points per game against inferior opponents earlier this season, and Miami’s habit of playing hard for 60 minutes should add points late.
Moneyline Pick: Detroit Lions. The Lions are the far better team and should keep their winning streak alive.
Spread Lean: Dolphins +7 (-112). Miami has covered three of its last four, and Detroit’s defensive injuries make it harder for the Lions to pull away by more than a touchdown. The Dolphins’ ability to score late gives them back-door potential.
Lions vs Dolphins Best Bets
- Best Bet: Over 50.5 (-115)
- Spread Lean: Dolphins +7 (-112)
- Key Factor: Detroit’s offense against a weak Miami defense, paired with a banged-up Lions defense
- X-Factor: The status of Jack Campbell and Detroit’s other injured defenders
Final Score Prediction for Lions vs Dolphins
Jared Goff and the Lions should return to their early-season scoring form against Miami’s defense, while the Dolphins take advantage of Detroit’s depleted defense to keep pace on the scoreboard. Expect a Lions win in a high-scoring game that clears the total, with Miami hanging around inside the number.
- Final Score Prediction: Lions 31, Dolphins 25
- Total Pick: Over 50.5 (-115)
- Spread Lean: Dolphins +7 (-112)
