North Dakota State vs Saint Mary's Predictions, Picks and Odds

Both teams won 27 games last season. Both teams scored 90 points in their openers. Yet Saint Mary’s is laying nearly two touchdowns at home, and the line has crept up a full point since opening. The Gaels have a new head coach, a reshuffled roster, and a defense that just allowed 85 points to Illinois State, while North Dakota State brings a deeper backcourt and an experienced transfer class to Moraga.

This North Dakota State vs Saint Mary’s matchup has a lot more intrigue than the spread suggests. Before you finalize your free college basketball picks, here is the full breakdown of the odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets.

North Dakota State vs Saint Mary’s Quick Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: North Dakota State +13.5 (-110)
Total Pick: Over 148.5 (-105)
Projected Final Score: Saint Mary’s 80, North Dakota State 72

Odds and Line Movement for North Dakota State vs Saint Mary’s

The North Dakota State Bison visit the Saint Mary’s Gaels on November 4, 2026, at 10:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, California. Saint Mary’s opened as a 12.5-point favorite and has moved to -13.5, with the Gaels drawing as much as 92% of the money early. The total has held around 148.5, briefly dipping to 147.5 before returning. Track every move with our live odds.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
North Dakota State	+12.5 (-108)	Over 148.5 (-115)
Saint Mary’s	-12.5 (-112)	Under 148.5 (-105)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
North Dakota State	+13.5 (-110)	Over 148.5 (-105)
Saint Mary’s	-13.5 (-110)	Under 148.5 (-115)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	North Dakota State	Saint Mary’s	Public ($, #)
11/04	+13.5 (-110)	-13.5 (-110)	SMCA 76%
11/04	+13.5 (-115)	-13.5 (-105)	SMCA 75%
11/04	+12.5 (-102)	-12.5 (-118)	SMCA 66%
11/04	+13.5 (-118)	-13.5 (-102)	SMCA 68%
11/03	+13.5 (-112)	-13.5 (-108)	SMCA 72%
11/03	+12.5 (-105)	-12.5 (-115)	SMCA 72%
11/03	+12.5 (-112)	-12.5 (-108)	SMCA 92%
11/03	+12.5 (-115)	-12.5 (-105)	SMCA 92%
11/03	+12.5 (-108)	-12.5 (-112)	SMCA 90%

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under	Public ($, #)
11/04	148.5 (-105)	148.5 (-115)	UN 68%, OV 58%
11/04	147.5 (-115)	147.5 (-105)	UN 68%, OV 58%
11/03	148.5 (-112)	148.5 (-108)	UN 56%, OV 59%
11/03	148.5 (-112)	148.5 (-105)	UN 56%, OV 59%
11/03	148.5 (-115)	148.5 (-105)	UN 56%, OV 59%

Key Matchups and Handicap: North Dakota State vs Saint Mary’s

This early-season clash features two programs coming off 27-win campaigns, and both enter at 1-0. Each team went through substantial offseason turnover, which makes evaluating them tricky this early. The key questions are whether Saint Mary’s can tighten up a defense that struggled in its opener and whether North Dakota State’s new pieces can hold up against a significant step up in competition.

North Dakota State Rolls in Its Opener

North Dakota State opened with a 90-59 win over Minnesota Crookston, shooting 53% from the field while collecting 41 rebounds and 13 assists. Returning guard Andy Stefonowicz led the way with 18 points and seven assists, while Long Beach State transfer Rob Diaz III grabbed six rebounds. The performance was impressive, though it came against Division II competition.

NDSU Reloads Through the Portal

The Bison underwent significant roster changes, losing Damari Wheeler-Thomas to Boise State, Trevian Carson to Cincinnati, Noah Feddersen to Colorado, and Treyson Anderson to Butler. Head coach David Richman responded by adding Diaz, Melvin Bell Jr. from San Jose State, Karl Poom from Northern Arizona, and Jack Robison from Wisconsin. Those additions bring experience and improved backcourt depth, though building chemistry against stronger competition remains an early-season challenge.

Saint Mary’s Survives an Overtime Scare

Saint Mary’s also scored 90 points in its opener but needed overtime to beat Illinois State 90-85, allowing the Redbirds to shoot 50% from the field. Mantas Juzenas led the Gaels with 20 points and 11 rebounds, while Stanford transfer Jeremy Dent-Smith added four assists. Saint Mary’s recorded 41 rebounds and 18 assists, but surrendering 85 points highlighted the defensive adjustments still needed after heavy offseason turnover.

Saint Mary’s Rebuilds Under Mickey McConnell

Saint Mary’s lost leading scorer Paulius Murauskas to Arizona State, guard Mikey Lewis to Texas, and Andrew McKeever to Iowa. New head coach Mickey McConnell brought in Dent-Smith, Thomas Ndong from California Baptist, Vangelis Zougris from Louisville, and Luke Fennell from Syracuse to complement returning guard Joshua Dent. That is a lot of new talent to blend, especially on the defensive end, where the Gaels have historically built their identity.

Gaels Defend an Unbeaten Home Floor

The Gaels went undefeated at home last season and allowed just 64.5 points per game during the 2025-26 campaign. Their size, rebounding, and familiarity with University Credit Union Pavilion give them meaningful advantages. Saint Mary’s should control the interior, but this year’s roster has not yet shown the same defensive consistency as last season’s group.

NDSU vs SMC Betting Trends

Both teams won 27 games last season and are 1-0 this season.
Saint Mary’s went undefeated at home last season.
Saint Mary’s allowed 64.5 points per game during the 2025-26 season.
Saint Mary’s allowed 85 points and 50% shooting in its overtime win over Illinois State.
North Dakota State shot 53% from the field in its 90-59 win over Minnesota Crookston.
The spread has moved from Saint Mary’s -12.5 to -13.5, with as much as 92% of the money on the Gaels.
The total has held at 148.5 for most of the market, briefly dipping to 147.5.

NDSU vs SMC Key Injuries and Notes

Injuries: Neither team has a clearly confirmed major absence, so final availability reports are worth monitoring.
North Dakota State: Andy Stefonowicz (18 points, seven assists in the opener) leads the backcourt.
North Dakota State: Departures include Damari Wheeler-Thomas (Boise State), Trevian Carson (Cincinnati), Noah Feddersen (Colorado), and Treyson Anderson (Butler).
North Dakota State: Newcomers include Rob Diaz III, Melvin Bell Jr., Karl Poom, and Jack Robison.
Saint Mary’s: Mantas Juzenas posted 20 points and 11 rebounds in the opener.
Saint Mary’s: Departures include Paulius Murauskas (Arizona State), Mikey Lewis (Texas), and Andrew McKeever (Iowa).
Saint Mary’s: Mickey McConnell is in his first season as head coach.

North Dakota State vs Saint Mary’s ATS and Total Picks

ATS Pick: North Dakota State +13.5 (-110). Saint Mary’s has the size and home-court edge, but its defense showed real cracks in the opener, and the roster is still coming together under a new coach. North Dakota State has improved backcourt depth and enough perimeter scoring to stay competitive. The line has moved a point toward the Gaels on heavy public money, giving bettors the better number on the Bison.

Total Pick: Over 148.5 (-105). Both offenses scored 90 points in their openers, and Saint Mary’s just gave up 85. Even accounting for North Dakota State’s opener coming against Division II competition, two new-look rosters still finding their defensive footing point toward a game that clears this number.

North Dakota State vs Saint Mary’s Best Bets

Best Bet: North Dakota State +13.5 (-110)
Total Pick: Over 148.5 (-105)
Key Factor: North Dakota State’s backcourt depth against a Saint Mary’s defense still adjusting to heavy turnover
X-Factor: Mantas Juzenas controlling the interior for the Gaels

Final Score Prediction for North Dakota State vs Saint Mary’s

Saint Mary’s should protect its home floor behind its size and rebounding, but North Dakota State has enough perimeter scoring to keep this within the number. Expect a competitive, higher-scoring game than the Gaels typically play, with the Bison covering and the total going over.