Warriors vs Timberwolves Spread & Over/Under Pick For October 28, 2026
Anthony Edwards is headed for knee surgery, and the betting market reacted instantly, slashing three full points off the Minnesota spread in a matter of hours. That dramatic swing is the starting point for this Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction, as the Timberwolves host Steph Curry and a Golden State team fresh off its first win of the season, a 134-114 rout in Denver.
The Warriors have a breakout rookie whose status is uncertain, while Minnesota must figure out life without its franchise star for at least two months. Before you lock in your NBA predictions, here’s a complete breakdown of the odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets for Warriors vs Timberwolves.
Warriors vs Timberwolves Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Under 227.5 (-108)
- Projected Final Score: Timberwolves 115, Warriors 107
Odds and Line Movement for Golden State vs Minnesota
The spread opened at Minnesota -6.5 before crashing to -3.5 following the Edwards news, briefly touching -4.5 along the way. The total has bounced between 228.5 and 229.5 before dipping to 227.5. Spread money has poured in on Minnesota, while the majority of total money has backed the over. Stay on top of every move with our live odds.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | +6.5 (-115) | Over 229.5 (-108) |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | -6.5 (-105) | Under 229.5 (-112) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | +3.5 (-105) | Over 227.5 (-112) |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | -3.5 (-115) | Under 227.5 (-108) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | Golden State | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| 10/28 | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-115) |
| 10/28 | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) |
| 10/27 | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-115) |
| 10/27 | +4.5 (-115) | -4.5 (-105) |
| 10/27 | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-115) |
| 10/27 | +6.5 (-115) | -6.5 (-105) |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10/28 | 227.5 (-112) | 227.5 (-108) |
| 10/28 | 228.5 (-108) | 228.5 (-112) |
| 10/28 | 228.5 (-112) | 228.5 (-108) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-108) | 229.5 (-112) |
| 10/28 | 228.5 (-110) | 228.5 (-110) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-108) | 229.5 (-112) |
| 10/28 | 228.5 (-112) | 228.5 (-108) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-108) | 229.5 (-112) |
| 10/28 | 228.5 (-112) | 228.5 (-108) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-108) | 229.5 (-112) |
Key Matchups and Handicap: Warriors vs Timberwolves
Minnesota was dealt a massive blow yesterday when it learned Anthony Edwards will undergo knee surgery and miss at least two months. The Timberwolves now turn to new star LaMelo Ball, who will likely shoulder most of the offensive workload. Minnesota could also see a re-emergence from Ayo Dosunmu, who averaged 21.8 points per game during last season’s first-round playoff series against Denver, a series in which Edwards missed time.
There’s reason to believe Minnesota can survive without its star. The Timberwolves went 12-9 straight up without Edwards during the regular season last year, and they’ve been excellent on both ends early this season, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency and sixth in offensive efficiency.
Golden State arrives after a huge 134-114 win at Denver, its first victory of the season. The biggest surprise for the Warriors has been rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, who is averaging 21.8 points and 9.3 rebounds through four games.
However, Lendeborg is questionable with a foot injury, so his status is worth monitoring closer to tipoff. If he can’t go, Golden State loses one of its most productive players.
The Warriors match Minnesota offensively, ranking sixth in offensive efficiency, but the defense has been a major problem. Golden State ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and has allowed the highest overall field goal percentage to opponents this season. Minnesota, meanwhile, has allowed the lowest three-point field goal percentage in the league through four games, a key factor against a Warriors team led by Curry.
The history between these teams also favors Minnesota. The Timberwolves went 3-1 against Golden State last season, with Edwards missing two of those games. The totals in three of those meetings averaged 219.5 points, well below tonight’s number.
Betting Trends: GSW vs MIN
- The Timberwolves went 3-1 against the Warriors last season.
- Edwards missed two of those four meetings.
- Three of last season’s meetings averaged 219.5 total points.
- Minnesota went 12-9 straight up without Edwards during the regular season last year.
- The teams are a combined 5-3 to the under this season.
- Both teams rank in the top 11 in fewest free throw attempts allowed per game.
- Minnesota ranks fourth in defensive efficiency and sixth in offensive efficiency.
- Golden State ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and sixth in offensive efficiency.
Key Injuries and Notes: GSW vs MIN
- Minnesota: Anthony Edwards (knee) will undergo surgery and is out at least two months.
- Minnesota: LaMelo Ball is expected to carry most of the offensive load.
- Minnesota: Ayo Dosunmu averaged 21.8 points per game in last season’s first-round series against Denver.
- Minnesota: The Timberwolves have allowed the lowest three-point percentage in the league.
- Golden State: Yaxel Lendeborg (foot) is questionable.
- Golden State: Lendeborg is averaging 21.8 points and 9.3 rebounds through four games.
- Golden State: The Warriors beat Denver 134-114 for their first win of the season.
- Golden State: The Warriors have allowed the highest field goal percentage in the league.
ATS and Total Picks for Warriors vs Timberwolves
ATS Pick: The market overreacted to the Edwards news, dropping this spread from 6.5 to 3.5. Minnesota went 12-9 straight up without Edwards last season, and the Timberwolves still have a top-five defense and a top-six offense this year. Golden State’s 28th-ranked defense should struggle to contain Ball and Dosunmu, and with Lendeborg questionable, the Warriors could be shorthanded too. Take Minnesota -3.5.
Total Pick: The total has dipped from 229.5 to 227.5, and the under still holds value. Three of last season’s meetings averaged just 219.5 points, both teams rank in the top 11 in fewest free throw attempts allowed, and they are a combined 5-3 to the under this season. Minnesota’s league-best three-point defense should limit Golden State’s perimeter scoring, and the absence of Edwards removes a major source of offense. Take the under 227.5.
Golden State vs Minnesota Best Bets
- Best Bet: Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (-115)
- Total: Under 227.5 (-108)
Final Score Prediction for Warriors vs Timberwolves
Minnesota’s defense and the combination of Ball and Dosunmu should be enough to handle a Golden State team that has struggled to get stops, even without Edwards in the lineup.
- Final Score Prediction: Timberwolves 115, Warriors 107
- Spread Result: Timberwolves cover -3.5
- Total Result: Under 227.5
