UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds October 24

UFC 333 Picks, Predictions and Odds

UFC 333 picks and predictions for October 24 by UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang are available below with the main event headlined by Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev in a featherweight title fight! The main card starts up at 10:00am ET from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev: UFC 333 Main Event

Saturday, October 24	UFC 333 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -260 / Under +190)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:	Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
TV:	Paramount+

UFC 333 Predictions: Undercard

Petr Yan (-150) vs Merab Dvalishvili (+144)

Yan got the better of Merab in their last fight, which was extremely impressive considering how Merab normally overwhelms opponents with nonstop pressure and takedowns.

Yan was able to neutralize that attack and actually outwork Merab in the striking exchanges. Merab said afterward that he was sick heading into the fight, and I tend to believe him.

I expect him to be more motivated than ever for this rematch, and I think we’ll see a much better version of him. The relentless pressure, takedowns, and incredible cardio should all be there this time. At plus money, I like the opportunity to back Merab in a bounce-back performance. Merab Dvalishvili at +144 is the pick.

Loneer Kavanagh (-100) vs Ramazan Temirov (-104)

Temirov is undersized for the division, but he’s an absolute animal. He throws everything with tremendous power and comes out looking to overwhelm opponents immediately.

He has the cardio to go three rounds, but his volume definitely slows after that explosive opening round. Kavanagh’s biggest priority is surviving those early exchanges without taking a huge shot.

Kavanagh has his own weaknesses, particularly his striking defense and tendency to tire late, but he’s fast, moves well, and has the ability to evade big punches.

I expect Temirov to put him on the back foot early, but as the fight progresses, Kavanagh should become more comfortable and start taking over the striking exchanges. Kavanagh at -100 is the pick.

Alexander Volkov (-117) vs Rizvan Kuniev (+113)

Kuniev wants to turn this into a slow, physical fight. He likes to clinch, pin opponents against the fence, land body shots, and control the pace rather than engage in extended striking exchanges.

Volkov does an excellent job moving on the outside and avoiding those situations, but Kuniev is extremely effective at forcing opponents into his preferred style of fight.

My concern with Volkov is whether he’ll generate enough offense to win rounds if Kuniev is controlling him against the cage for extended stretches. Volkov might have the cleaner striking, but control time could be the deciding factor with the judges. Kuniev at +113 is the pick.

Aaron Pico (-113) vs Losene Keita (+108)

This should be a fantastic fight. Pico looked terrible in his UFC debut, then bounced back against an older, slower Patricio Pitbull and looked great.

My concern with Pico is that he’s a front runner who looks excellent when things are going his way but doesn’t always respond well when he faces adversity.

Keita is an explosive athlete with tremendous speed and legitimate knockout power. I think he’s going to be a little faster than Pico and have the advantage in the explosive striking exchanges. If Keita can put Pico under pressure and force him into uncomfortable situations, I like his chances. Keita at +108 is the pick.

Dominick Reyes (+186) vs Azamat Murzakanov (-194)

Murzakanov doesn’t fight very often, and at 37 years old, I have serious concerns about his cardio and ability to maintain his effectiveness over three rounds.

He’s extremely dangerous early, but when he doesn’t get the quick finish, he tends to slow down considerably. Reyes needs to survive that initial onslaught and avoid getting knocked out in the first round.

If he does, I expect him to have a significant cardio advantage as the fight progresses. I simply can’t justify laying nearly -200 on a 37-year-old fighter who relies so heavily on early finishes without showing much of a backup plan. Reyes at +186 is the underdog pick.

Nikita Krylov (+426) vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-456)

This is a no-brainer for me. Krylov disappeared for a couple of years, and since returning, he’s been knocked out in three of his last four fights.

His durability is clearly gone, and he no longer has the same speed or power that made him dangerous earlier in his career. Yakhyaev is an absolute killer with tremendous punching power, and all three of his UFC victories have come in the first round.

I don’t see Krylov having the chin or defensive ability to survive the early attack. This looks like another quick finish, and I’d even consider a small sprinkle on under half a round. Yakhyaev by first-round finish is the play.

Abus Magomedov (-108) vs Cam Rowston (+104)

I don’t understand how Rowston isn’t a significant favorite here. He showed an incredible ground game in his last fight, maintaining his effectiveness throughout all three rounds.

He’s also demonstrated legitimate knockout power on the feet and has the cardio to fight hard for the entire contest. Magomedov has shown cardio problems in the past, and much of his success has come from identifying and exploiting obvious weaknesses in his opponents.

The problem here is that I don’t see an area where Rowston is particularly vulnerable. He’s well-rounded, dangerous everywhere, and should have the conditioning advantage as the fight progresses. I think Rowston is the better fighter across the board. Rowston at +104 is the pick.

Grant Dawson (-117) vs Nurullo Aliev (+113)

This is a matchup between two wrestlers, and I expect a competitive, grinding fight. Dawson is terrible on the feet and has dealt with significant injuries throughout his career, including a serious neck injury.

When he can get opponents to the ground and establish control, he’s extremely effective, but good strikers have shown they can exploit his weaknesses and knock him out. Aliev isn’t much of a striker himself, but he’s an excellent wrestler who should be able to match Dawson in the grappling exchanges.

He’s also younger and doesn’t have nearly as much wear and tear on his body. I expect a close fight that goes the distance, but I like Aliev’s youth and wrestling ability. Aliev at +113 is the pick.

Colby Thicknesse (+426) vs Asaf Chopurov (-456)

Chopurov is only 24 years old, undefeated, and looks like the complete package. He has powerful striking, an excellent ground game, and the ability to win fights in multiple ways.

Thicknesse is coming off a couple of victories, but neither was particularly dominant. In his last fight, he absorbed some big shots and was visibly rocked.

He also has a tendency to retreat when opponents pressure him, which could be a major problem against someone as aggressive and well-rounded as Chopurov. I think Chopurov is the real deal and has a very bright future. Chopurov is the easy pick.

Jacob Malkoun (+150) vs Abubakar Vagaev (-156)

We’ve got two wrestlers here, so this probably isn’t going to be the most exciting fight on the card. Vagaev trains with Khamzat Chimaev, and I think that gives him an advantage in the intensity and quality of his preparation for a wrestling-heavy matchup like this.

Malkoun is the better striker, which could make things interesting if he can keep the fight standing, but I don’t think he’ll be able to do that consistently.

I expect Vagaev to get takedowns, establish control, and spend long stretches holding Malkoun down. Vagaev at -156 is the pick, likely by decision through control time.

Daniel Santos (-132) vs Bolaji Oki (+101)

Neither guy is particularly impressive, but Oki continues to disappoint me every time he fights. He doesn’t seem to have much punching power, looks lost on the ground, and I haven’t seen meaningful improvement since he entered the UFC.

Santos isn’t an amazing fighter either, but he’s aggressive, throws good volume, and has the ability to mix in some grappling. That gives him more ways to win rounds, even if he’s not someone I trust with my money.

This is a fight between two unreliable fighters, and I don’t see much value in getting involved. Santos at -132 is the pick, but I’m not betting this fight.

Noah Gugnon (+144) vs Kody Steele (-150)

Steele lost his UFC debut after coming out way too excited and amped up, abandoning the controlled approach that normally makes him effective.

In his next fight, he got back to his usual style, mixing in takedowns and wrestling, and came away with the victory. Gugnon is a violent fighter with good striking and a solid ground game, although the level of competition he’s faced leaves some questions about how those skills will translate against better opponents.

Both guys have finishing ability, and I think there’s a good chance this fight ends inside the distance. With Gugnon’s offensive upside, I like taking a shot at the underdog price. The fight under is my preferred play, with Gugnon at +144 as the side.

Iasmin Lucindo (-361) vs Nicolle Caliari (+265)

Lucindo is only 24 years old and has an extremely high ceiling. She’s already a talented striker, and her ground game continues to improve.

Her only recent loss came in a close fight against a highly ranked, experienced veteran, so there’s no reason to be concerned about her development.

Caliari is coming off a win, but it was against a terrible opponent, and she has consistently struggled whenever the competition gets tougher.

She doesn’t have the punching power or ground game necessary to keep Lucindo from moving forward and imposing her offense. I expect Lucindo to control the action and eventually overwhelm her. Lucindo is the pick, most likely by finish.

UFC 333 Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski (-106) vs Movsar Evloev (+104)

COMING SOON!

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